It is mostly rural, but it's more like small town rural, not complete desert wilderness with absolutely no people.

Think rural england.

Of course, right wingers are notorious for low voter turnout.

no, they're not.

At least in new jersey.

And despite it being so rural and so "right wing", it voted Trump 49-48.

There’s like a 2% chance it flips. We have a bad candidate with bad fundraising running against a moderate who is an ok fit for the district, in a dem wave year that is hitting suburbia hard. I’m not giving up, just saying we need to be strategic in which races we target. This one is not a hill to die on.

if the majority of municipalities in it are right wing with more then 50% voting right wing

I consider it right wing.

And if the majority of land in it is rural

it's not more than 50%

I consider it rural.

let's see

It is rural but it's rural like Vermont is rural.

In the 2012 presidential election, Republican Mitt Romney received 3,269 votes (62.8% vs. 59.4% countywide), ahead of Democrat Barack Obama with 1,800 votes (34.6% vs. 38.2%) and other candidates with 119 votes (2.3% vs. 2.1%), among the 5,203 ballots cast by the township's 7,467 registered voters, for a turnout of 69.7% (vs. 68.3% in Sussex County).[66] In the 2008 presidential election, Republican John McCain received 3,454 votes (62.2% vs. 59.2% countywide), ahead of Democrat Barack Obama with 1,987 votes (35.8% vs. 38.7%) and other candidates with 74 votes (1.3% vs. 1.5%), among the 5,551 ballots cast by the township's 7,319 registered voters, for a turnout of 75.8% (vs. 76.9% in Sussex County).[67] In the 2004 presidential election, Republican George W. Bush received 3,300 votes (67.0% vs. 63.9% countywide), ahead of Democrat John Kerry with 1,564 votes (31.7% vs. 34.4%) and other candidates with 48 votes (1.0% vs. 1.3%), among the 4,928 ballots cast by the township's 6,500 registered voters, for a turnout of 75.8% (vs. 77.7% in the whole county).[68] for wantage township

That's six years ago. And over the past 16 years, it's voted in presidential elections progressively LESS Republican.

So you're saying the countryside is getting more left wing?

It's not new england liberal, lol.

it's evidently getting more left wing

that's the whole district

and that's because the suburbs are getting more people

and the whole district is what elects the congressional rep

are you really saying that gop turnout will be HIGHER than 2016 levels for this midterm?

I'm saying if we can get very high voter turnout among the large areas of the district that are right-wing culturally and politically.

We can possibly win.

I'm not saying it's a definite win, but certainly not a landslide leftist victory.

it's a midterm. I think it's far more likely it's a pickup in 2020.
Possibly, but not probably.

Also Lex New york, new jersey, and pa aren't socially liberal in the countryside like new england.

What's the population distribution between the rural and suburban areas in this district?

82.83% urban
17.17% rural

80-30 = 50

But about 30 - 40 percent of the suburban areas are right wing.

Also some of the "urban" areas are densely clustered small towns that vote red that are in the countryside.

I don't believe that's population distribution, simply geographical distribution.

it is

most of it is rural

If that's the case, it truly isn't a very rural district.

it's mostly geographically rural

82.8% urban

that's population

not geographic