CA-49: Trump's approval at 46/51 (HRC carried it 51/43). Makes you wonder if it could be held on to.

y'all remember what 90% of the polls said about the 2016 election

Well we're not counting on keeping that seat by normal measures, exactly.

credibility of polls went down the drain my man

also almost all of these polls are taken from people in urban areas

same applies to ones on the internet

and almost every urban area is left as heck

It's about momentum, it's about energy. Honestly, @🎃Boo-ton🎃 I know you're deep in the political statician stuff with these districts, but you can't ever let this shit demotivate you. They win when that happens. Don't make it about "not sure we'll hold on to it", we can hold on to anything with the right effort and momentum.

ur right, nothing _really_ matters until the primaries

For now, we honestly just need to work on the Discord. We can probably get those special elections won on our own if we had a megaphone like r/T_D on our side. We need to focus on housekeeping, brainstorming, what ops to do, websites, so that when the primaries come and go, we can more effectively focus on elections.

"We can't bog ourselves in the conventional polling and the odds in each state and what's considered deep blue and red, we need a fight wherever we can put it. This hasn't been a conventional time whatsoever, wherever the tide turns, whatever it may yield, we've got to give this all we got. We need to push as hard as possible, I think the reddit stuff is our best way for this discord to drive turnout. We need to, no matter whatever the odds, push to the limit. This is what counts. The Senate has a much bigger opportunity of success than what we're making it out to be, and the House is a tough fight, but it's one which if we can salvage what we have and get seats in unexpected areas, we can make it even better than now if we do it right. Blackpills are not an option. We shall fight on the coasts, we shall fight on the plains, we shall fight in red districts and blue districts, whatever we need to. Whatever happens, if we've done all that we can, at least we can't blame ourselves."

oh my fucking god, this is right on the money. You're the MVP of the Month

Yeah, we shouldn't get bogged down in the numbers and data like the out of touch leftist academics who thought Hillary would definitely win

discussing probabilities in February for something that will happen in November is pretty fruitless

ummmmm, no sweetie!
<#401223003779760168>Matters

turnout matters

Here's a list of all MAGA aligned candidates running in CA.

GOV: @JoinTravisAllen
SOS: @MarkMeuser
SEN: @RealErinCruz

CONGRESS:
CA-39 @AndrewSarega
CA-48 @TheStelian
CA-43 @RealOmarNavarro
CA-26 @AntonioSabatoJr
CA-41 @AjaforCongress
CA-08 @PatriotNotPol
CA-09 @MarcoGutierrez

here's the truth,

that's a repost from a tweet btw

high or low approval doesn't matter if you don't leave your home to vote

Obama was polling in the 50s when he lost **63** seats in the house in 2010

yeah, that's what I'm saying, we need to get Rs on their feet and registered, momentum and energy, that's all it is.

Democrat voters are different than Republican voters though

we need candidates who aren't Saccone,

R's have been more reliable when it comes to turning out in general

now, these special elections for state legislatures may tell you otherwise

people who go out and reach out to the people

but then again, they're pretty inconsequential right now given how large the GOP majorities are in these state legislatures

except in the case of Washington and almost Virginia

btw it's retarded that people pointing out how the recent Kentucky special election race had such a massive flip

because in 2016, the actual state legislature race was almost 50-50

one day maybe we can be those guys who reach out to the people

it went something like 75-25 Trump, but the incumbent seemed to be pretty connected to her district to manage to make it 50-50 with people voting downballot

it's you're going to argue that the state legislative flips mean nothing, then you would have to also say that it meant nothing when Obama lost 1000s of seats as well

it meant something because it was 1000s of seats over the course of a long period of time

whereas the GOP has been losing these special elections in legislatures where they already have such a large majority, it isn't worth caring about until the big day in November

we'll need to light a match under the R voters

ideal candidates:

1.) grassroots

2.) ideological purists

3.) no personality cultists (reagan, bush, trump, anyone)