Only +5 D on the latest Ipsos poll

My latest projection of the midterms in the House

>red TX-23

>light red

What's the issue

>red IL-12

He'll survive.

Also I ruled out Gianforte being voted out

>Red Tucson suburbs

explain this one

Incumbency advantage

The House is a tough game to manage

@Nuke McSally is not running again

she's the House Rep for that district

the district'll most certainly go blue

85% non-Hispanic white

right

but it's a suburban district

.....

we'll seen a lot of blue waves in suburbs

Why are you always so doubtful

These people need to know the consequences of democratic policies on their lives

@Deleted User have you actually been keeping track of elections this year and before?

The problem is the patterns we've been seeing

Because he has to

remember the suburbs in PA-18?

enormous blue wave

Yep. Basically only the rural areas went right.

Was there even any Pittsburgh in the area?

why would this suburban Tucson district be any different

We can't lie to ourselves like the guys in MAGA twitter and reddit do, we've got to face the harsh truth and fight with our heads held high

Yep.

@Nuke yes

At least it wasn't totally a suburban swing then

And it doesn'f look good, unfortunately

all I'm saying is that that district will most certainly flip,

suburban,

went for Clinton,

open seat

all the right conditions for a flip

This is why operation blue scare is important