Message from @zakattack04
Discord ID: 441371978453221377
Really?
please tell me you're joking.
That was a district where the incumbent resigned in shame
Of course there was going to be a swing
There are like 110 districts which was won by less then 20 points, if we do your plan that theoretically means there will be 100 new democrats.
Not 100 districts where they resign in a scandal
That has a major effect on swing
You can't attribute that to be the sole reason.
That's unreasonable.
It has a trend for both sides
And this is a different narrative you fed me than before the election
Anthony Weiner's seat, which is D+34, mind you, went Republican after his scandal
You said AZ-08 is a great example because they're no "X" factors, and the Republican is running on immigration reform and the Democrat is running on socialized medicine. So I was told it would be a great indicator of how the election cycle would go with our current platform.
I forgot about that one
And I Anthony weiner made national news for weeks.
And I don't think I said that, by the way.
I didn't even know their Republican resgined in scandal.
Anthony was all over the place, on every news station being talked about.
We suppressed their votes hard.
This is just an effect which happens after resignations, the incumbent party is always depressed.
He wasn't near as paraded as Anthony was
It doesn't dismiss this effect
It minimizes it as an excuse
In my own district back in '06, the congressman turned out to be a pedophile and a dem came in and swept the seat
The truth is the 17-20 point swing has been the average.
Regardless of the X factors.
I think I read that on Washington Post.
That changed recently
With that average they're going to have themself like 80 seats
Oh it did?
We had districts go 2 points left and 4 points left
Last night
Ok so lets take the hundreds of special elections
And take the two new ones into account
And redo the average
@🎃Boo-ton🎃 by the way, how did those other districts last night swing?
Probably still going to be 15+
The thing is there's new factors that are coming up
Maybe we are just kicking the can down the road. Everytime we lose I see this discord try to blame it on something out of our control.
"Allegations, the enemy was a Conservative Democrat, the opponent looked better, the opposition party has better turnout."
Those hundreds of special elections happened before this whole issue with Korea's come up