Immigration reform

Democrats focused on socialized medicine.

And who's the representative now?

And they had a 20 point swing.

Lol

Really?

please tell me you're joking.

That was a district where the incumbent resigned in shame

Of course there was going to be a swing

There are like 110 districts which was won by less then 20 points, if we do your plan that theoretically means there will be 100 new democrats.

Not 100 districts where they resign in a scandal

That has a major effect on swing

You can't attribute that to be the sole reason.

That's unreasonable.

It has a trend for both sides

And this is a different narrative you fed me than before the election

Anthony Weiner's seat, which is D+34, mind you, went Republican after his scandal

You said AZ-08 is a great example because they're no "X" factors, and the Republican is running on immigration reform and the Democrat is running on socialized medicine. So I was told it would be a great indicator of how the election cycle would go with our current platform.

I forgot about that one

And I Anthony weiner made national news for weeks.

And I don't think I said that, by the way.

I didn't even know their Republican resgined in scandal.

Anthony was all over the place, on every news station being talked about.

We suppressed their votes hard.

This is just an effect which happens after resignations, the incumbent party is always depressed.

That didn't happen in AZ-08

He wasn't near as paraded as Anthony was

It doesn't dismiss this effect

It minimizes it as an excuse

In my own district back in '06, the congressman turned out to be a pedophile and a dem came in and swept the seat

The truth is the 17-20 point swing has been the average.

Regardless of the X factors.

I think I read that on Washington Post.

That changed recently

With that average they're going to have themself like 80 seats

Oh it did?

We had districts go 2 points left and 4 points left

Last night

Ok so lets take the hundreds of special elections

And take the two new ones into account

And redo the average