I think that there's a strong chance we can get the CA gov seat, as laughable as that may sound

@Deleted User The government restricts knowledge of which plans are affected so you basically need to look it up plan-by-plan or enter your zip code and exact employment roll information into the healthcare marketplace for business to find which plans are affected. Individual plans are not affected, only group plans, and the government treats different arrangements differently so if you want to find out if you're affected you need to be able to actually just look up your health plan.

However since this is so complicated, I just put sample data reflecting demographics and swing state voters into there.

Just a bit of intuition, I guess.

Although the nominated candidate will influence that probability.

CA is possible

As long as Travis Allen doesn't ruin our chances

Doubt

I think we should get behind him, actually

The demographics are a nightmare

White Evangelicals are only 2 out 10 of the California Electorate

John Cox is the only one who can carry california

To me, Allen seems stronger, I don't know.

Whites are barely 5 out of 10 of the electorate

So even if Cox wins 100% of the White vote,

he'll need to pick up some Asians or Hispanics

CA primaries are going to be the most monumental of these elections

Some asian groups are republican leaning

Like Viets

That's iffy

Nope

Not anymore

In presidential years, definitely not

I thought they were?

Only in the suburbs of New Orleans, sure

But in midterms they may pull through

Asians voted +1 for Republicans in 2014

They did (barely, but they still did) pull through in 2014

But that was because Obama

Yeah, Asians went like 89% Clinton.

Even stronger than blacks.

I was surprised.

Advertising in asian languages would seriously help

That's not true

It was 65%

Clinton advertised in at least 6 different ones

@FLanon @Nuke @Deleted User

If we had advertised in Chinese, Tagalog, Hindi, Viet, Korean and Japanese we would have cut those margins

I think if Allen or Cox campaigned in asian languages they'd just call him racist

Not really

"We can speak English too"

Cox tried to appeal to Hispanics in the debate and he got booed by the crowd