Manchin voting no would definitely hurt his bipartisan street cred

PredictIt has been betting on Manchin NO for awhile now.

And Manchin voting no will destroy his reelection

Yeah

So let's hope he votes no

well

I want another yes vote but I mean

Pure party line is optimal.

On the other hand, it'll likely also prevent Kavanaugh's nomination in the here and now.

Him getting 56 votes is worse than him not getting the nom.

But they can always nominate him post-midterms

@Nuke predictit been calling a hard Kavanaugh confirmation fail

We can keep the senate and can vote again in a few months

But if we fuck up with this map, then we will be fucked

49 or fewer at $0.51

That's 50-50 practically

However it's down 18 cents

Except it's by number of votes

49 or fewer
49 or fewer

49.YEA.SC.103118
51¢ 18¢ 52¢ 51¢ 49¢ 48¢
50
50

50.YEA.SC.103118
8¢ 2¢ 9¢ 8¢ 92¢ 91¢
51
51

51.YEA.SC.103118
28¢ 5¢ 29¢ 28¢ 72¢ 71¢
52
52

52.YEA.SC.103118
11¢ 5¢ 12¢ 10¢ 90¢ 88¢
53
53

53.YEA.SC.103118
7¢ 3¢ 7¢ 6¢ 94¢ 93¢
54
54

54.YEA.SC.103118
5¢ 2¢ 5¢ 4¢ 96¢ 95¢
55
55

55.YEA.SC.103118
3¢ 1¢ 3¢ 2¢ 98¢ 97¢
56
56

56.YEA.SC.103118
1¢ NC 2¢ 1¢ 99¢ 98¢
57
57

57.YEA.SC.103118
1¢ NC 1¢ None None 99¢
58
58

58.YEA.SC.103118
1¢ NC 1¢ None None 99¢
59
59

59.YEA.SC.103118
1¢ NC 1¢ None None 99¢
60 or more
60 or more

60.YEA.SC.103118
1¢ NC 1¢ None None 99¢

Link predictit page

Yeah that's a better idea lol

https://www.predictit.org/Market/4602/How-many-Yea-votes-will-Kavanaugh-receive-in-a-confirmation-vote-by-Oct-31

The second most popular is 51 confirms

Hm

Well I don't think that'll be that bad.

Very low confidence in a SCOTUS confirmation this month

I think Murkowski will vote for Kavanaugh.

Maybe Flake will flake

I don't see any other signals though. Maybe I'm stupid, but I dunno.

Hmm not a lot of faith in Kavanaugh being next SCOTUS

https://www.predictit.org/v2/markets/detail/4858/Will-Brett-Kavanaugh-be-the-next-confirmed-Supreme-Court-justice

Fingers crossed for 100% party line

Faith among the people betting on predictit maybe

But my instinct is telling me he'll pass

Yeah same here

one thing to realize is that predictit is full of lefties betting on their blue wave fantasies

keep that in mind

I think a lot of people on predictit vote their party line

yeah

What Barron said

oh my lord