Message from @Fire
Discord ID: 663913115028815872
Obama came in during the GFC, so 1.5-2 years of his is leeward side of that, then the turning point, and now we are in the same expansion, which is beginning to turn
Why did unemployment rate drop significantly more than usual after 2008 then? And then keep dropping more than usual
Is going down
the unemployment rate went UP during the GFC, then began to drop as aggregate demand rose again
usually bank credit drives the latter
I'm heading out bye
or you can use something like hours worked in a sector
etc
But what im asking is why under trump did it drop below 7.5 percent and then keep dropping when historically its never done that
trump* not drop
Because Trump is a wizard
aggregate demand has kept going up
normally, we get a counter cyclical policy
trump was aganist t, he wants negative rates
that's a problem which will make next crash bigger, powell isn't caving on negative rates, YET, we'll see
by some measuers, 'jobs' have gone up, but 'hours worked' gone down
Okay, but what im getting at is that it was policy that kept unemployment going down right?
it's the lack of the usual countercyclical
sort of but primarily it's because there is no headroom
when rates are already near zero, there is nowhere to cut
so since there was nowhere to cut, he went negative?
the US has not done that yet, but Trump wants it. europe has, but it doesn't fix the issue
whats the issue
monetary policy is the wrong tool, but it subsidies certain groups so we keep doing it
letting the recession happen but using fiscal policy to 'catch ' people is the sensible policy, but we get ideological fights over it, alongside some savvy economic actors that like the boon they get under monetary policy
Zarif shittalked Trump on Twitter and got barred.
But im still curious as to what the issue is; you're saying monetary policy is the wrong tool, but for what?
trump tax cut was really aimed at the wrong people, and the salt deduction change was dirty
well issue is, we are inflating the current bubble longer than 'necessary' , borrowing from the future
so the national deby
debt
nah national debt isnt a problem, it's the asset bubbles
and PRIVATE debt, which is not that high for households(rate) but is bad for corporate
bond market watches know this, but it doesnt hit news much
repo market blowup is related
I don't blame Trump for the technicals, but he did bring into office the usual types of people. the financial swamp