Message from @Fire

Discord ID: 663913115028815872


2020-01-07 01:04:49 UTC  

Obama came in during the GFC, so 1.5-2 years of his is leeward side of that, then the turning point, and now we are in the same expansion, which is beginning to turn

2020-01-07 01:04:50 UTC  

Why did unemployment rate drop significantly more than usual after 2008 then? And then keep dropping more than usual

2020-01-07 01:04:53 UTC  

Is going down

2020-01-07 01:05:23 UTC  

the unemployment rate went UP during the GFC, then began to drop as aggregate demand rose again

2020-01-07 01:05:27 UTC  

usually bank credit drives the latter

2020-01-07 01:05:52 UTC  

I'm heading out bye

2020-01-07 01:05:59 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/513098339961798676/663911172189323265/Screenshot_377.png

2020-01-07 01:06:10 UTC  

or you can use something like hours worked in a sector

2020-01-07 01:06:12 UTC  

etc

2020-01-07 01:06:17 UTC  

But what im asking is why under trump did it drop below 7.5 percent and then keep dropping when historically its never done that

2020-01-07 01:06:32 UTC  

trump* not drop

2020-01-07 01:06:53 UTC  

Because Trump is a wizard

2020-01-07 01:06:57 UTC  

aggregate demand has kept going up

2020-01-07 01:07:29 UTC  

normally, we get a counter cyclical policy

2020-01-07 01:07:40 UTC  

trump was aganist t, he wants negative rates

2020-01-07 01:08:08 UTC  

that's a problem which will make next crash bigger, powell isn't caving on negative rates, YET, we'll see

2020-01-07 01:09:30 UTC  

by some measuers, 'jobs' have gone up, but 'hours worked' gone down

2020-01-07 01:12:47 UTC  

Okay, but what im getting at is that it was policy that kept unemployment going down right?

2020-01-07 01:13:14 UTC  

it's the lack of the usual countercyclical

2020-01-07 01:13:41 UTC  

which is policy

2020-01-07 01:14:29 UTC  

sort of but primarily it's because there is no headroom

2020-01-07 01:14:40 UTC  

when rates are already near zero, there is nowhere to cut

2020-01-07 01:15:19 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/513098339961798676/663913519296806913/Screenshot_477.png

2020-01-07 01:15:28 UTC  

so since there was nowhere to cut, he went negative?

2020-01-07 01:15:47 UTC  

the US has not done that yet, but Trump wants it. europe has, but it doesn't fix the issue

2020-01-07 01:15:59 UTC  

whats the issue

2020-01-07 01:16:17 UTC  

monetary policy is the wrong tool, but it subsidies certain groups so we keep doing it

2020-01-07 01:17:05 UTC  

letting the recession happen but using fiscal policy to 'catch ' people is the sensible policy, but we get ideological fights over it, alongside some savvy economic actors that like the boon they get under monetary policy

2020-01-07 01:18:24 UTC  

Zarif shittalked Trump on Twitter and got barred.

2020-01-07 01:18:32 UTC  

But im still curious as to what the issue is; you're saying monetary policy is the wrong tool, but for what?

2020-01-07 01:18:34 UTC  

trump tax cut was really aimed at the wrong people, and the salt deduction change was dirty

2020-01-07 01:19:06 UTC  

well issue is, we are inflating the current bubble longer than 'necessary' , borrowing from the future

2020-01-07 01:19:16 UTC  

so the national deby

2020-01-07 01:19:17 UTC  

debt

2020-01-07 01:19:40 UTC  

nah national debt isnt a problem, it's the asset bubbles

2020-01-07 01:19:53 UTC  

and PRIVATE debt, which is not that high for households(rate) but is bad for corporate

2020-01-07 01:20:13 UTC  

bond market watches know this, but it doesnt hit news much

2020-01-07 01:20:20 UTC  

repo market blowup is related

2020-01-07 01:21:13 UTC  

I don't blame Trump for the technicals, but he did bring into office the usual types of people. the financial swamp