Message from @NewRogernomics
Discord ID: 649081908830928900
weeb
```The chinese have always wanted authoritarian type governments
With a large degree of centralization``` Which is why I tend to lol at sinophiles, as command economies tend to wreck themselves.
Folks going on about how China will replace the US and dominate the world, tend to gloss over the flaws built in to the system that will make that impossible in the long-term.
They might if the US doesn't wake up
i clipped a video on that issue in <#513098448640278539>
China is making a lot of the mistakes Japan made early in it's development, like a) aging population and low immigration, b) bloated infrastructure spending leading to high gdp to debt ratio, 3) economic development over environment.
Nah those aren't really their problems
main issue is the state owner entities and the zombie companies, which forces them to avoid transparency, plus they are just totalitarian in general
Oh they are...but they are long-term problems that don't hit them till ages down the road.
your a) is a complete non-issue for japan
They already solved that issue 20 years ago with automation and they are comfortable running massive deficits until their population shrinks
I was describing early on...Japan has laid off that.
It was never a mistake for them to begin with, Japan's main issue was trying to aviod deflating their bubbles in the 80s
China right now is funding zombie construction.
Some of it is strategic, fall back positions in case of war, some of it is cronyism
Meaning cities that no one will live in, and economically unviable transport.
See the charts I clipped in that other channel as well
the ghost cities are military fall back positions
they are sometimes dumb, but not that dumb. decoy and fall back positions is at the heart of chinese military thinking
I like when folks talk about the glittery high speed trains in China, that run on a massive deficit and are losing money, not to mention have shoddy safety records.
china's investment in their deep water southern ports was massive part of that spending, which is why hong kong has slipped so far down on shipping numbers
the deficits aren't anything, china is capturing capex due to the capital controls and they are a communsit country so they dont really care about losing money + that video clip
look at where hong was and where it is now in terms of global shipping, that was a big part of that spending
China has just so many inefficiencies in their economy that are state driven, that the US could take advantage of...it it finally cut out it's own govt spending issues and ran a surplus one day.
nah my dude, it doesnt work that way
we can't run gov surplus
Lol. Not for many decades at this point...the debt is too high.
gov surplus would cause massive depression unless private debt exploded by tens of trillions per year
absolutely not
national debt is a non issue, there is nothing to it, it's just a bookkeeping device
You couldn't run a surplus for ages away....but then the China-US competition is going to run deep into the future.
your heart is in the right place but you really don't know what you are talking about
gov surplus isn't like a household surplus we can always pay usd denominated debt
macro isn't just micro scaled up
I know that it is a long-term thing, you have to pay off over a long period of time as to not cause issues. 😛
the us even pretending to run surpluses is what causes most of our problem, it lead directly to offshoring everything to china
no, you dont have to pay it off at all, that's not the purpose of the national debt
I used to live in New Zealand, which purposely doesn't pay off the debt, as to not mess up the economy, even though it could probably pay it off outright.
no country using a modern fiat currency can pay off their national debt, it's literally impossible
Well yep.