Cat, I disagree on NK. But whatever ...

As far as China, NK misbehaving causes China a lot of grief. NK flouts Beijing. I think they'd rather not have the Kims but they're even more worried about chaos on the peninsula or unification.

So I'm not sure how much you know about ICBMs, but there's this part call the reentry vehicle, or RV. It's the part that carries the nuke from orbit back down to the target, kind of like a space capsule.

It gets really, really hot on the way back in because it's going something like Mach 12.

If Trump were to assure Beijing that the US fully respects NK being in China's sphere of influence, then China can perform regime change.

It gets so hot that it creates a plasma ball around it, which blocks radio transmissions.

Cat, and stick your finger in the eye of SK and Japan, bad strategy....

Testing them is really hard, because at the point when it is in the most danger, you can't communicate with it.

I am aware, Atkins. It's why we can't talk to astronauts for about 90 seconds. It was during that period that Columbia disintegrated.

Trader, I didn't think Trump much cares what SK and Japan think. He certainly isn't acting like it.

Cool. Ok, so you're with me. Anyhow, the US can test these things because we have satellites that can reach over the horizon to do line-of-sight radio transmission after the blackout ends. North Korea doesn't have satellites. Their only way to know whether or not their reentry vehicle works would be what is called an "all-up" test, i.e., an actual nuke.

So since NK has halted testing, they don't actually know whether their ICBMs work.

Not 100% anyway. And they aren't going to start a war on 'pretty sure'.

Trump no, but for sure they are part of the equation....beside I think we are dreaming the China would control NK. Now your letting China play with us ....

*If* NK did an all-up test the US would have no choice but to immediately strike.

But now that they have stopped testing, we can talk and try to deescalate.

I've joked about that. I expect their ICBMs to be about as accurate on reaching their destination as Malaysia Air flight 653.

They haven't crossed the point of no return.

I'd say they probably have a 2km CEP

Which is shit.

But, well, nukes.

NKs guarantee is that they can flatten Seoul almost instantly

They could do that without nukes.

Millions of lives held hostage

Exactly

Yep. So they can have regime security without nukes.

In fact their regime would be more secure without nukes.

No kidding

Because if they hadn't started talking with Trump the war would already have been over by now.

We were really, really close.

Like most people don't even know.

I honestly don;t know what goes through Kim's mind

We were moving munitions.

Like we were shipping over the bombs that we were going to kill them with.

But anyone could have talked to Korea. Trump wasn't unique. It could have been Bush Jr or Obama.

They didn't want to give Kim what he wanted

Pre-positioning equipment really subtly but not so subtle that the OSINT community didn't pick up on it.

No. Wrong.

Trump said he was willing to have direct talks.

No other president did that.

The movement of materials to Guam was pretty well known