so they lie or dont tell

ree

And they do it all the fucking time.

I'm not going to argue there. But political pollsters do tend to try and stay sorta objective.

The News polls are not the most reliable.

```Watch the Penn and Teller episode on NUMBERS```
I'm dead serious. Do this.

Will do.

>Penn and Teller
lmao

But if you're saying social sciences are full of trash, you're talking to the choir here.

You just don't know the tricks of the trade for polls

But I've been around long enough to be able to sort out trash from not trash.

No, I do.

Trust me. I do.

Way more than you will ever know.

HaCk ThE eLeCtIoN

It's not just incompetence. Plenty of MALICE is involved as well.

Little lapdogs for some funding.

"Get the results we want!!"

You do know I'm something of an academic.

Oh good.

I know plenty well how neutral gatekeepers manipulate these things.

Facts change when you have a backstory all of a sudden.

I also know when I'm seeing an honest study.

the possision that polls serve no predictive power is dumb and people who hold tht possition are dumb. they predict the results of the people being polled rather accuratly

We're just talking past each other at this point...

"We want this answer, find us proof for it"

as opposed to "We want to find out what the answer is and then prove it"

Ben Shapiro had to admit he was wrong after the 2016 election

But here he is again, getting fooled the exact same way, by the polls.

It's a weird amnesia.

many groups are not being polled however, as there is no reliable way to reach them and potentially screen them (to prevent their numbers from counting twice, or to make sure the sample is random enough)

I think the blue wave is just Mind Games Round 2.

@Dr.Wol Yeah, that's the problem in the social sciences right now. Particularly the more activist and political elements.

Then what was this recent election in Ohio?

That's an R+8 district.

Who are we talking about?

It should have never been news. Nonetheless as close as it was.

https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/republican-declared-winner-of-narrow-victory-in-ohio-special-election/

Troy Balderson.

Ignore the headline if you want. But it's a verified fact it's a safe Republican district that was so close that they spent weeks recounting.

You really think that's comparable to the mega-event in november?

And the seat is up for actual election in November.