But they pull urban areas more often.

^

not if it's random numbers

Even if it's random

They end up pulling urban areas more often.

what

Just because of proportions

Most people live in cities

So if you pull random

You're going to pull a urban voter most of the time.

that still is significant though

it's not like it's biased

K

if you have random numbers it's objective

Polls can sometimes fail miserably and sometimes be extremely accurate. they're certainly worth considering

^

(random)

Not really, polls have been wrong as a whole for the last like 20 years.

2016 there were wrong everwhere

Even the national polls.

It's a matter of which polling organisation is right the most.

Online polling should definitely be discarded, landline polls are generally good

how can no one see the pattern?

PA-18: Trump job approve 49% Saccone (R) - 49%

GA-06: Trump job approve 52%
Handel (R): 52%

MT-AL: Trump job approve: 50%
Gianforte (R): 50%

The problem is polls don't depict turnout.

And to frame your marketing according to the policy concerns of your constituents.

Those are cherry picking

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 those numbers looked like whoever did them pulled them out of their ass

We've had so many elections Button Mash

You need to do every special election

there's no fucking way they just neatly match up

If they predict results then that is something to think about

Yeah he cherry pciked

Trump got the same percent of the vote as Gillespie did too

He missed all of Alabama and Virginia

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 that's not true

I'm going to defend him on this

No

Alabama was special

Gillepsie had less votes

Than Trump

they got the same percent of the vote

different margin

And even so

Gillespie lost by 8%, Trump lost by 5%

same pecent

You're still c-

lol

Hey, what's the topic?

polls

See

Cherry picking

Trump's approval matters

"Still percent"

Side note, did you look at my DM Mr. Red Storm?

It's not cherry picking

Trump is not popular is many parts of the country

>picking three elections out of the dozens held

4

He didn't indicated Utah either

And you were wrong about Virginia again

Not 'dozens'

Just federal elections

no I wasn't

If that's what we're talking about

State races correlate too.

Aggregate the data of 15 different elections this year and compare it with the approval rating of that district.

Gillespie got 45% of the vote

We're talking federal elections here though.

Trump got the same percent

The fact is we need to improve our polling even if the polls aren't accurate.

^

Do numbers

Get it up!

Trump wins where he is popular

how is this not obvious

It's going to more accurate, you told me you can't use percentages

This'll help determine the extent of the correlation between Trump approval ratings and GOP performance.

That is obvious.

That wasn't your argument

what's my argument

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 the Lt. Governor won more because she was Trumpian

You brought this up like the GOP is going to lose every place Trump is in disapproval.

Anyways, everyone can disregard Alabama, simply because of the unique circumstances regarding that election

Which is factually incorrect

not _every_ race

Any other argument of "trump wins where he is popular" is common sense.

but Trump's approval will drag Republicans into the gutter

^ FLAnon

How do you win where you're not popular.

Listen, if this matches up 75% of the time, then it's a trend.

also, Gillespie only got 66% of the Trump vote

Not true.

he campaigned with Dubya

rejected Trump

If they differentiate themselves from Trump they'll do better

that's not really possible

Trump is the face of the GOP

Oh yeah

"but Trump's approval will drag Republicans into the gutter"

he boosted Saccone