I think 372 is a pretty small polling sample, isn't it?

Depends

depends on how accurate the sample represents the district

From Nate Silver "It encompasses parts of four counties: Allegheny (home to 43 percent of the district’s voters, based on 2016 presidential results), Westmoreland (33 percent), Washington (22 percent) and Greene (2 percent)."

hmm

BUT the Parts of Allegheny are very different. Like around Mount Lebanon is probably like 70% Dem and parts of Southern Allegheny are probably 70% Republican. So who knows where they took the samples

Fucking Union Voters though

We're definitely going to have to do something about RTW soon

I don't know. It just seems mathematically impossible to me.

I mean the district isn't even very elastic

@Den how realistic does this look for your area

129 Rs and 139 dems? Did they account for that?

It's hard to say especially since Lambs people were stealing Saccones signs. I will say I went all though the district on way to Trumps Ralley and I didn't see near the number of Lamb signs that I thought I would around certain areas like Mount Lebanon

Every other commercial is bashing Lamb but it's that retarded Pelosi's little Lamb one

why the fuck did they make that

the rnc is headed by clowns, I swear

Like I just found out that Saccone wrote 12 books and lived in North Korea. They never even mention Saccone

http://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1520/87/1520877637286.jpg

EXACTLY

HOLY SHIT, that's what I was saying

OK 24% of our population is NOT liberal!

It's not staunch conservative either

It's a blue collar district

But the poll over sampled Libs

It's hard for me to get a good feel for the district. I know very little about Washington County

Are you a suburban or rural retard?

Suburban.

Hmm

I know Southern Alleghany and even that like I said very s from Town to Town.

@FLanon @🎃Boo-ton🎃 @Den How would you guys react if the Monmouth Poll turns out to be wayyyyyyyy off ? Like a 10%+ margin for Saccone

I would faint

It would be a relief.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 lol I'm not surprised you pussy

lmao

you gotta start lifting

Fuck off lol

I'd be pretty happy, I wouldn't say it's unexpected though, this is a heavily Trump district.

I need to reiterate,

this is not a Republican district

This is a Trump district

^This

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3639057/posts

"You can never compare “useless” Democrat,Joe Biden to POTUS. Donald J. Trump. Democrat, Joe Biden, in his thirty or forty years of public service does not have one piece of meaningful legislation to his name. I watched the Democrat, Conon Lamb, rally he, Biden, spoke at. First the crowd was tiny, maybe 200 people all union shop stewards, kneeling and drooling at the commands of their failed union leadership. Biden spoke for about a half hour, ranting and babbling all over the place with nothing to say of merit or detail."

I feel like the RNC doesn't even know Republicans' strongest positions, it's immigration, economy, and crime, (plus constitutional protection if you consider that)

Instead they run around talking about anti gay marriage and abortion

Like no blue collar worker cares about that shit

I've prayed for Saccone, and now that I've learned this was before the rally and will probably be a low turnout election, we can still keep this seatm

bump the thread

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/163683596

>yfw a huge Saccone upset is waiting in the wings

Also, that poll sample is trash.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_110716/

Monmouth had Clinton+1 in North Carolina in October 23

Monmouth had Clinton+4 in PA in November 1

Clinton +7 in Wisconsin

it had Northam at +2 even though the final result was +8.9

the most similar race to this is GA-06 but they never did one for that

http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1520884235884.png

ahahahahahahahahahaha

Button is heavily involved in politics.

that's the same Patrick Murray quoted in that article

about Saccone

Perhaps he remembers a time when it was a good poll.

*?

@Pielover19 Button just likes to panic

he's addicted to that feeling

Alabama

we're all addicted to certain emotions

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Saccone isn't accused of being a pedo

I live in Alabama.

You had HUGE amounts of voter indifference because Roy Moore was accused of being a pedo.

20 people in my neighborhood alone didn't vote for that reason.

Monmouth has been accurate 85% of the time

Some really bought into the smear campaign and voted for Doug.

One guy I know was in a "Republicans for Doug Jones" ad.

Without the smear campaign, Moore would've won by 25-30 points.

Still, this is before the rally.

If Trump went into my area and held a speech like the one last night, all twenty of those voters would vote for Moore. Guarenteed.

REALLY wish I would've done some campaigning.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 what do you mean by 85%

The rally effect, combined with the fact that this is probably going to be low turnout, means Saccone isn't down for the count.

maybe Monmouth just got lucky with Alabama

Still, hope and pray that we win.

@Deleted User are you a poll truther?

I get being pessimistic, though.

Because a win would feel a lot better.

Although I think that's not your reason for freaking out.

what's a poll truther

My blackpills and concern shilling is well intentioned

It certaintly makes me want to work harder.

A poll truther believes all polls are fake or rigged

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 what do you say to this then

Where is this from

I've heard the Mississippi special election is in July.

Is that true?

No