Message from @Fran

Discord ID: 652028050824757252


2019-12-05 06:00:20 UTC  

The solution to the Olbers paradox is that there are many things in between the stars and the Earth, like nebula which absorb nearly all visible light

2019-12-05 06:00:29 UTC  

i am stuck on probability hw

2019-12-05 06:00:31 UTC  

😠

2019-12-05 06:01:05 UTC  

ironically i have probability hw i should be doing rn

2019-12-05 06:01:22 UTC  

i get answer two different ways that both seem right but they both different

2019-12-05 06:01:23 UTC  

yuck

2019-12-05 06:01:40 UTC  

There is light everywhere in the universe in the form of the cosmic microwave background

2019-12-05 06:01:53 UTC  

u can post the question and i can try to help if u want

2019-12-05 06:02:00 UTC  

im not sure if i can

2019-12-05 06:03:02 UTC  

"Jimmy is one of n people playing a game. They take turins flipping a biased coin for which the probability of heads is equal to p and tails is q= 1-p. They will go one after another in a predetermined order; once someone flips heads the game is over and he/she is declared the winner." Find a closed form expression for the expected value of the number of times jimmy flips the coin if he is LAST in line

2019-12-05 06:03:08 UTC  

I have my first method which is

2019-12-05 06:03:53 UTC  

E(coin flips) = 0*p(J doesnt flip) + 1*p(J flips and wins) + (1 + E(coin flips))*p(J flips and doesnt win)

2019-12-05 06:04:04 UTC  

but this doesnt give me same answer as brute forcing

2019-12-05 06:04:25 UTC  

1p(j wins first flip) + 2(j wins 2nd flip) + 3(j wins 3rd flip) + .....

2019-12-05 06:04:27 UTC  

and evaluating series

2019-12-05 06:06:09 UTC  

so the expected number of total flips for everyone is 1 / p is i believe

2019-12-05 06:06:19 UTC  

50%

2019-12-05 06:06:22 UTC  

oof

2019-12-05 06:06:27 UTC  

i got for the first method

2019-12-05 06:06:38 UTC  

q^(n-1)/(1 - q^n)

2019-12-05 06:06:41 UTC  

and for second method

2019-12-05 06:06:56 UTC  

thats just total flips not for jimmy

2019-12-05 06:07:08 UTC  

oh you mean flips til game ends

2019-12-05 06:07:11 UTC  

yeah

2019-12-05 06:07:14 UTC  

ok

2019-12-05 06:08:50 UTC  

so a heuristic (not exact) probability would be 1 / pn

2019-12-05 06:09:04 UTC  

the probability of reaching the nth flip is q^(n - 1) i think

2019-12-05 06:11:12 UTC  

so its the sum from i = 1 to i = infinity of q^(i * n) * p

2019-12-05 06:11:40 UTC  

if n = 2 and p = 0.5

2019-12-05 06:12:32 UTC  

thats 0.5 ^ 2 * 0.5 + 0.5 ^ 4 * 0.5 + 0.5 ^ 6 * 0.5... etc

2019-12-05 06:12:35 UTC  

which i think is right

2019-12-05 06:13:06 UTC  

ello my fellow flattists

2019-12-05 06:13:40 UTC  

oh

2019-12-05 06:13:44 UTC  

wrong place

2019-12-05 06:13:47 UTC  

i think most of the flat earthers are offline rn

2019-12-05 06:13:52 UTC  

'good day

2019-12-05 06:13:56 UTC  

lolwhat

2019-12-05 06:29:04 UTC  

earlier, i asked how flat earth accounts for 24 hour sunlight in the antarctic during the summer solstice and citizen ice responded with this gif https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/484516084846952451/652017778206965760/FEEarthBestProof.gif

2019-12-05 06:29:33 UTC  

the problem is that gif contradicts the earlier explanations ive been given for how season work in flat earth?

2019-12-05 06:29:56 UTC  

that clip fails to explain for the antartic

2019-12-05 06:30:07 UTC  

thank you