Message from @Eccles

Discord ID: 624363525388763146


2019-09-19 21:51:35 UTC  

high population density is not a bad thing if its stable

2019-09-19 21:52:13 UTC  

and the quality of people is "diverse" ... and by diverse Im not talking about race... as thats irrelevant

2019-09-19 21:52:22 UTC  

or gender

2019-09-19 21:53:00 UTC  

high population density breeds violence, crime, poverty, and authoritarianism. it also bleeds out to the countryside inflating prices and destroying habitat and culture

2019-09-19 21:53:53 UTC  

inflating prices is fine as long as wages go with it.. it means each generations property gets easier to pay off

2019-09-19 21:54:02 UTC  

it won't inflate wages with it

2019-09-19 21:54:09 UTC  

and hasn't

2019-09-19 21:54:19 UTC  

it has tbf 😛

2019-09-19 21:54:24 UTC  

it hasn't

2019-09-19 21:54:55 UTC  

wages have massively outpaced inflation over the past few years... and thats with net immigration in the hundreds of thousands

2019-09-19 21:55:11 UTC  

plots have got smaller and more expensive - a property my parents generation afforded on 1 modest wage would take 2 wages well above median wage to afford now

2019-09-19 21:55:23 UTC  

it's not even remotely close

2019-09-19 21:55:49 UTC  

thats more to do with interest rates than population or anything like that...

2019-09-19 21:55:52 UTC  

nope

2019-09-19 21:56:05 UTC  

it's both

2019-09-19 21:56:19 UTC  

they would still have to pay thousands a month for the same size home today on a much smaller loan

2019-09-19 21:56:35 UTC  

demand >> supply

2019-09-19 21:57:12 UTC  

which is why its great that inflation kicked in.. rates went down.. and now its easier to pay off the relatively small loan

2019-09-19 21:57:15 UTC  

if the interest rates were much higher then prices would be lower, but they would be equivalently unaffordable to the way they are now

2019-09-19 21:57:36 UTC  

Also, interest rates are not going to go up now

2019-09-19 21:57:44 UTC  

or anytime in the short or medium term future

2019-09-19 21:57:59 UTC  

they will crawl up

2019-09-19 21:58:12 UTC  

but it depends a bit on the next Carney

2019-09-19 21:58:15 UTC  

Nah, the entire system has been debased, they won't go up

2019-09-19 21:58:39 UTC  

we might get a hawkish BoE leader who puts them up a point a year

2019-09-19 21:59:06 UTC  

theyre supposed to go up a quarter point before this december

2019-09-19 21:59:31 UTC  

they do that, they'll crush the housing market and make people homeless, so nah

2019-09-19 22:00:16 UTC  

not necessarily

2019-09-19 22:00:18 UTC  

They can't do anything except raise it extremely slowly without crippling people

2019-09-19 22:00:27 UTC  

for example....

2019-09-19 22:00:54 UTC  

And even small increments in interest rates will suck so much spending power out of the system it'll stall growth

2019-09-19 22:01:17 UTC  

when I got my 5yr fixed - the base rate was at 0.5% and my rate was 1.79% ... that same mortgage is now at 1.59% and the base rate is 0.75%

2019-09-19 22:02:00 UTC  

How much of that is because government bonds are going negative in large chunks of the western world?

2019-09-19 22:02:18 UTC  

I.E. it's not a sign of a healthy economy

2019-09-19 22:02:28 UTC  

banks are still competing for customers too.. so up-ing the base rate wont necessarily crush people

2019-09-19 22:02:47 UTC  

Putting it up 1% will

2019-09-19 22:03:00 UTC  

Putting it up 5% definitely will

2019-09-19 22:03:30 UTC  

I mean if they put it up another quarter point and at the end of my term the mortgages are still at 1.79% then it makes no difference to me

2019-09-19 22:04:00 UTC  

and theyre not going to put it back to 5% for a long while... it will be a crawl back... unless there is a massive boom

2019-09-19 22:04:38 UTC  

There'll be shit tons of people not on a fixed rate for whom a 1% hike would cost them a fortune

2019-09-19 22:04:53 UTC  

Either way, it doesn't resolve the need to prevent population levels rising in England