"On Tuesday, March 13th, voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will go to the polls in what has become the highest profile special election since Doug Jones beat Roy Moore in December. Gravis Marketing has released their third and final poll in this race. The Likely voter poll, conducted March 1st-5th, shows the race continuing to tighten into a toss-up. The poll uses the same demographic model as the previous two Gravis Marketing polls of the race.

The State Representative Rick Saccone now leads former assistant U.S. Attorney Connor Lamb 45%-42%. The previous poll in February had Saccone up 45%-40%, and the first poll in January showed Saccone up 46%-34%. The race has undeniably tightened as Saccone’s support has been frozen in the 45%-46% range while Lamb’s support has climbed from 34% to 42%. While Saccone remains the favorite to win this race, there is a clear path to victory for Lamb. 13% of likely voters remain undecided.

Saccone is currently pulling 4% of Clinton voters while Lamb is taking 13.1% of Trump voters. Saccone, however, takes 16% of Democrat compared to Lamb’s 12.3% of Republicans. Lamb holds a 46%-27% lead over independent voters.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has taken a slight hit in the district over the three polls showing only a slight trend downward from 54%-39% in January to 49%-42% in the first week of March. Governor Wolf has remained stable and currently sits at 33%-47% in the district. Senator Casey’s numbers have also remained static and are currently at 33%-38%."

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/03/07/gravis-marketing-final-pa-cd18-special-election-poll-results/

>Lamb holds an enormous lead over independent voters

oh shit

Concerning

@Den I'll consider it. I could definitely find time. Thanks for the idea.

TX-7: +4856 R votes

TX-23: +13,369 D votes (!)

TX-32: +1275 R votes

@Nuke @🎃Boo-ton🎃 Lamb holds that lead because of his grassroots style campaigning, not that he's a Democrat

The issue with Texas, is that Dems don't turn out to primaries. In 2014 they had a 3-1 election to primary ratio. While the GOP had a 2-1 ratio. This is kinda scary. Hopefully the trump effect just had them come out to primaries, and it's not an indication of a surge in overall Dem voters.

^this

@Deleted User what makes you think that ratio will be the same though

in 2014, the issue was the Dems being apathetic...which means that a 3-1 primary ratio in 2014 makes sense because the people who vote in primaries are the people who care

Why is PA going to Cuck itself

@zakattack04 if you're referring to PA-18 it's because Lamb is an attractive, grassroots candidate who is busting his ass

and is marketing himself as a conservative Democrat

it's not that they're liking the Democrats more all of a sudden

same thing with Jon Ossoff

Well great... Just what we need is to lose another pro trump district to energize democrats even more..

Ossoff came close because he marketed himself as a conservative Democrat

@zakattack04 yeah, that's the main issue

I think the GOP needs to focus on winning these races to DEMORALIZE the Democrats

not because they need to keep seats in their supermajorities

it's a "kick the enemy while they're down, not because they're a threat right now but because they could be a threat later"

kind of thing

if I was in charge of the GOP, that would be my rationale

instead, Ronna Romney McDaniel is choosing to save up the $ for when midterm season is in full swing

I got a terrible feeling were going to get clobbered in the midterms

Maybe that's a good idea thouh

Cause the DNC is broke right now

@zakattack04 the DNC is broke but D candidates still get donors

@zakattack04 I have a feeling that the GOP will put up an actual fight in the actual midterms though

not every Democrat candidate will be like Conor Lamb

or Jon Ossoff

this looks like a repeat of GA-06, which came close

now, it might come close in the Democrat's favor

we'll see

Ughhh... I dunno man

Trump is showing up in the district on Saturday