If it's a narrow difference in favour of Balderson then it's an ominous reflection of a growing trend of political despondence in the Rust Belt in response to Trump.

I predict Balderson wins by 3-4%, the middle of the optimistic and pessimistic outcomes.

Either way, if Balderson does indeed lose, it'll be by the breadth of a hair, not unlike Conor Lamb's upset.

This is a very white district.

To be clear.

I see, that is pretty major

I have a decent feeling about it though

IN a part of the country which deeply dislikes both parties but supports unions.

Don’t most of the unions lean or work with the Dems?

That's right.

But it's also socially conservative and deeply anti-immigration.

Is that special election today ?

Every county this district encompasses voted Trump 70-80% in all cases.

Yes.

We'll almost certainly be having a VC on it in perhaps 8 hours' time.

Maybe a bit longer.

Funnily enough, the district Conor Lamb won (PA-18) was 95% NH white.

One of the whitest districts in the nation.

Pathetic.

Nonetheless, the district was converted into a blue one so Saccone'd only have it for two years before having to run again.

Still, every vote counts when we consider how slim the GOP majority in the House will be if we don't have a blowout victory in November,.

The House always seems to be the big hurdle doesn’t it?

I’m fairly certain we’ll keep the senate easy

Hi fairly certain we’ll keep the senate easy, I'm Dad!

In a country increasingly polarised and overwhelmed by demographic change, absolutely.

There's a movement brewing to expand the number of house seats.

Which would smash the GOP.

I think that’s the reason why it’s brewing lol

Since it's already very gerrymandered.

So packing the House, packing the SCOTUS, packing the senate when they make D.C and Puerto Rico states.

Something that pisses me off is when the left screeches at Republicans for gerrymandering but completely ignores it when they do it

That's four new senators for the Left if those two become states.

And oh god please don’t let Puerto Rico become a stars

I would rather have Guam be a state before Rico

But it's unlikely they'll even need to.

Florida is at the tipping point.

Because at least Guam is strategically important and a lot of people there join the military

People talk a lot about Texas flipping but I don't think that's anywhere near as important if we're speaking in terms of time (our movement needs to use our time far more efficiently than the left due to the increasing demographic change).

Florida is the true jewel of the presidential election.

It’ll be sad when my Home state finally goes under

R.I.P. Florida