if things stay the same we can expect: R 231; D 204

53%, huh?

That's at D+5.6, right?

that's at 5.9, so we could expect 2-3 seats more

GOP could gain seats if it was D+2 ?

yes

districting

i have to admit, i didn't expect the GOP to get within the 5 range,
so +2 is very well a possibility now

We've got to remain with this positive messaging and perceived bipartisanship and allowing the dems to blunder and collapse under the progressive hysteria and then we'd have our red storm on lock.

Trump should do more live speeches in general.

Miller definitely has a strong hand, he should be very hard at work.

I think the tax bill will be a sign of great continued growth with the Rs, at least until April-May.

Tax season will have a lot of pleasant surprises.

it should,

right now it's only tied in support and there are still a lot of people who still have the media's leftist dogma ringing through their heads from last year

the GOP will have to pursue some other major, landmark legislation to be safe

44% A, 44% D, and according to Monmouth, " the number who believe that their taxes will go up (36%) outnumber those who believe that their taxes will go down (24%) or stay the same (32%) under the new system."

People who say their taxes will go up still have a plurality.

We've all seen the tax analyses where people see how their taxes are, and I swear, 90+% of the time, they go down.

When they check their taxes this season, the surprise will bring major growth to support to the bill as the undeniable effects become apparent to all taxpayers.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 They certainly should, but what legislation would fit the bill (pardon the pun)

What would be the effects on the Senate with the Dems at +2?

I know it's much more individual, but there's got to be an estimate, right?

D+2.9: 54-48 (+)
D+5.9: 53-47
D+7.9: 52-48
D+9.9: 51-49
D+12.9: 50-50

pretty much this

How do you do the math on that

by taking the 2016 house seat elections and shifting each election result by the average generic ballot (right now at 5.6)
I compile the data on excel to get the results and changes of each districts instantly,
a +5.6 democratic shift would only flip less than 10 districts, fortunately

53 seats in the senate would do some good

what are the results if the margin is R+2, R+5, R+10

I think that number is higher tbh if we look at it individually but it's good to know

We get substantial increases

gain, no change, loss (house flipped for Dems)

oh wait,

R

I see you put R, mb

We get /redstorm/

assuming that occurs...

let's see...

is the analysis coming in

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/158734150

new thread