I have no doubt that Europe will fix itself at some point, the thing is about the immigrants over there are mostly opportunistic economic migrants who don't stay if they don't get anything

I remember a story about Denmark where they slashed benefits for migrants and then in a single night, 40000 people left the country

I can see that sort of argument made for a lot of areas, but I also see parties like the AfD in Germany making a lot of gains and feeling at least a bit of hope for them

it's a tough thing

the accelerationism meme may manifest over there, I hope they get unfucked before it comes to that, but I'm not quite sure

point being, the migrants there would go back to their countries if they had no social net

I'm not really thinking too far in that direction, but I'd say that cutting welfare for immigrants could solve the problem easily

it's like you look at Poland, there's no immigrants there even though it's in the Schengen area, the reason? Economic migrants want money.

I believe eventually what would happen is that there would be a lot of nations over there which obtain governments similar to the one Austria has, and after that, migrants would have an exodus back to their homelands

if there's no free ride, there's no point in staying, I'd rather be living in a homeland which speaks my language, which there's plenty of in the Middle-East

I mean, put yourself in their shoes. You speak Arabic, you go to Europe because they don't offer dental in Turkey or Jordan. You live an easy life, then the government takes away your incentive. Why wouldn't you go back? Wouldn't you much rather be in a country which speaks your language than which doesn't?

I seriously doubt that 90% are there because they legitimately want to do the Islamic world domination stuff.

It's much more realistic that a person wants to live comfortably. Occam's razor.

looks like a good analysis

the amount of beige states is very whitepilling

I like the fact it includes a candidate next to it

is this the bookmakers analysis?

sauce would be pretty good

IMO Wisconsin is pretty winnable

based on this we should expect 54/55 senators on our side?

that's very good

that's about the margin we have in the house

wouldn't be too certain about that

I'd put our cap at 59

what is the sauce btw

ah ok

it's probably better than most polls

the betting percentages had to come from somewhere though, right?

+3.6% in the last week

so that's good

good night guys

yeah

probably would be the best chance of getting that seat in a state that is extremely blue

So I've researched and found some projections for the house that are fairly whitepilling

they're from fairvote, a pretty accurate firm from what I've found

http://www.fairvote.org/fairvote_s_projections_for_u_s_house_elections_in_2018

basically, the high confidence projections they have (which from past analyses they've accurately predicted 99.7% of, so it's extremely likely they'll get all of them right bar one or two at most) has 205 R seats and 163 D seats

this gives a field of about 63 seats in competition

218 seats are needed to have a majority, meaning Rs would need to grab at least 13 seats out of the 63 in play in order to keep the house

obviously we want much more than this for legislative purposes, but this effectively prevents any impeachment attempts

Now, if there's a 2006-esque "blue wave" with a similar makeup to that year, w/ 54% dems and 46% Rs, that still gives Rs a majority of 226 seats, at least according to FairVote

this is about 52% of the House of Representatives which would be Republican, or to give a frame of reference, about the same margin that we had in the senate before Moore's loss

Not good in my opinion, but not apocalyptic. I think the average House Republican is much more on Trump's side than the average House Democrat (anecdotal, but still my opinion), so Trump would still be able to get some good bills in I assume.

yeah, damn

btw don't let these results get you delusional or anything

for all I know, the dems could get a ton more seats than what's considered the "blue wave" in that scenario.

our goals this year are to:
a) maintain the margins in the House, as they're decent at getting legislation passed even with Cuck Ryan.
b) increase the margins in the Senate, as they're the ones effectively blocking legislation from getting passed with a couple Senators
c) maybe get Ryan unseated, as he is a poison pill for Trump's agenda.
The cucks in the senate are already retiring, so we'd also need to make sure to prevent Romney from getting office in Utah.

gotta go, anyways.

they could end up being a very good metric for the federal elections

are there any results yet?

alright, well let's keep the fingers crossed then

some news concerning the wisconsin state special election

http://www.riverfallsjournal.com/news/government-and-politics/4389018-special-election-jarchow-out-early-lead

Jarchow is the R, so this should be good news to come

It's not really important in the sense of needing the seat itself, but it still gives us a bit of an idea as to attitudes

http://www.riverfallsjournal.com/news/government-and-politics/4389018-special-election-jarchow-out-early-lead

can I get someone else to bump the thread other than me

well, we're going to work hard then, aren't we

well then

what were the ballotpedia results

definitely not a good sign of things to come as they are, but the thing is the political environment 10 months from now can be radically different]

we 100% should be upping our game

yeah, we have our work cut out for us

I get it, it's dire

we definitely should be having more boots on the ground grassroots campaigns

there is no chance of making it by going on high and dry

I'm not psychic

there has to be some political event from now and then which changes the circumstances, really.

I refuse to give up hope, sorry.

GOP turnout is down, dem turnout is up, that's a big part.

There's gotta be a way to re-galvanize support

Not sure how Trump and the RNC are spending their political capital, whether they're saving it for the midterm day itself or something, but there should 100% be a plan under wraps for them.

One thing I know, money doesn't win elections on its own.

If only the government was capable of anything competent

There absolutely should be a strategy for at least Trump

I just don't think he's doing nothing about this

I'm just not sure what it is if he does

I tell you what, I'd be panicked if we had the midterms tomorrow with this type of political environment.

This is extremely concerning

Something's gotta change in the environment, that's the thing

Yeah, there's just gotta be a way

Politics is a changing course, it doesn't stay the same, I'm just not sure this momentum could be kept up.

It should be changed, I tell you, if I were Trump, I'd have justice as a main focus, I'll be honest, if there's any way to salvage this season, it's going to be through high profile arrests.

That's what energizes people.

I'd be down campaigning for candidates directly, Trump himself is a much more valuable physical political asset than all the money the RNC has.

Not tweets, rallies.

The last thing that should be on Trump's mind or anyone in the RNC is to remain on this course

Not an election day

was it nov. 8 2016 or a random day

It makes sense

If you have the ballot sheet down the line when you're voting for president, you'll vote for senators, congressmen, and state legislature

A lot of people aren't thinking politics and voting on some random day in January

Clearly less of the Rs are coming out than dems, which is a major issue.

Not sure whether it's demotivation, or energy from the left, or both, but it's an issue.

We've gotta have some sort of major event happen

Trump better have something major up his sleeve to be able to turn this around, because the issues aren't going to cut it. "the economy" isn't going to be winning the GOP any elections any time soon, sad to say.

As for the moment, though, doesn't look good.

a 'trump card' is really what I'm crossing my fingers for, there's gotta be a good plan other than business as usual.

Agreed

Let's find a way to change the course somehow, theorize, strategize or whatever, but let's do that later, it's the middle of the night and I'm gonna hit the bed.