election-night-forecast-bulletin

Discord ID: 474462721715208232


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2018-08-03 23:44:08 UTC

Oh that's weird

2018-08-03 23:44:32 UTC

When you include MN and WI, it's 50% approval, 46% disapprove (+4)

2018-08-03 23:44:36 UTC

I also consider MN as part of the rust belt personally, that's just a person to person definition

2018-08-03 23:44:42 UTC

That is a good sign, isn't it?

2018-08-03 23:44:48 UTC

Well

2018-08-03 23:44:52 UTC

that depends, Flcuck,

2018-08-03 23:44:57 UTC

let's see how they voted

2018-08-03 23:45:05 UTC

Rust belt ends in Wisconsin at Janesville.

2018-08-03 23:45:06 UTC

Overall Whites or WWC?

2018-08-03 23:45:09 UTC

WWC

2018-08-03 23:45:13 UTC

Good

2018-08-03 23:45:24 UTC

It's not me. It's any official description of the Rust Belt, fgt.

2018-08-03 23:45:25 UTC

I know I've lived here the last 20 years.

2018-08-03 23:45:31 UTC

Trump's approval is in the double digit negatives among Whites overall in the Rust Belt

2018-08-03 23:45:51 UTC

yeesh

2018-08-03 23:45:57 UTC

Or maybe not,

2018-08-03 23:46:20 UTC

I know that's the case for states like IA, MN, and WI

2018-08-03 23:46:36 UTC

Trump's approval is negative but thin in PA and MI

2018-08-03 23:46:46 UTC

and barely positive among Whites in OH

2018-08-03 23:47:04 UTC

how is Trump's approval with FL

2018-08-03 23:47:10 UTC

Among Whites?

2018-08-03 23:47:10 UTC

>believing the same people that had Hillary at 99.9% to win until 8 est.

2018-08-03 23:47:48 UTC

idk generally, then among whites

2018-08-03 23:48:05 UTC

Whites in Florida approve Trump +8.5
@FLanon

2018-08-03 23:48:06 UTC

because whites in FL are pretty much normal southerners

2018-08-03 23:48:23 UTC

I feel like most people dislike Trump because he hasn't really done much in there mind

2018-08-03 23:48:31 UTC

media propaganda mainly

2018-08-03 23:48:37 UTC

I mean

2018-08-03 23:48:43 UTC

What has he done on Immigration?

2018-08-03 23:48:45 UTC

Working-class Whites in Florida approve Trump +10.5 @FLanon

2018-08-03 23:48:54 UTC

Based

2018-08-03 23:48:58 UTC

Approval ratings are only a single component as to whether these folks will vote Trump again. Evaluating how Trump appears relative to the most likely 2020 opponent is a more reliable metric imo.

2018-08-03 23:49:10 UTC

cutting refugee numbers is pretty big

2018-08-03 23:50:14 UTC

in 2019-2020 I can imagine that foreign policy and trade alone could allow him to win re-election, but having a congress on his side will guarantee it

2018-08-03 23:50:56 UTC

@๐ŸŽƒBoo-ton๐ŸŽƒ give me WWC approval Rating in every state I listed

2018-08-03 23:51:27 UTC

Either way, Trump's reception will have to improve significantly over the next two years for him to win reelection while the Democrats will have to simultaneously lose face.

2018-08-03 23:51:34 UTC

I don't feel this is terribly difficult to achieve.

2018-08-03 23:51:51 UTC

He needs to stop tweeting retarded shit honestly

2018-08-03 23:51:58 UTC

Since the Democrats and the left wing media consortium seem intent on the GOP winning.

2018-08-03 23:52:30 UTC

I tried watching CNN and MSNBC today for a laugh.

2018-08-03 23:52:45 UTC

It was bad. Trying to tie Roger Stone to a hooker.

2018-08-03 23:53:12 UTC

Trump won WWC by 58.89% in the Rust Belt states based on his definition of the Rust Belt

2018-08-03 23:53:19 UTC

Roger Stone is a very spooky man with long standing ties to people like Roy Cohn and NXIVM. Very gross guy.

2018-08-03 23:53:42 UTC
2018-08-03 23:53:46 UTC

It's best for Trump to distance himself from those folks.

2018-08-03 23:54:07 UTC

I wish I could help Trump lol

2018-08-03 23:54:16 UTC

Just fucking talk to him

2018-08-03 23:55:12 UTC

Winning back White College Educated Voters is going to be very rough

2018-08-03 23:55:37 UTC

His tweets are unquestionably a net cost.

2018-08-03 23:55:44 UTC

Trump net approval among Rust Belt Working-class Whites:
Ohio: +7
Pennsylvania: +3.1
Wisconsin: -4
Michigan: -6.1
Minnesota -8.4
@ThatRightWingFish

2018-08-03 23:55:59 UTC

Given much of the opposition to him is rooted in concerns about his character.

2018-08-03 23:56:25 UTC

People can forgive the past misbehaviour of politicians if it's not a consistent stream. e.g. Billy Clinton

2018-08-03 23:56:52 UTC

His base wears Q t shirts.

2018-08-03 23:57:04 UTC

I don't think they care if he tweets lol.

2018-08-03 23:57:06 UTC

That's his base.

2018-08-03 23:57:23 UTC

Oh I hate that ridiculous nonsense

2018-08-03 23:57:44 UTC

The most important folks are the people who aren't his base but voted for him anyway. This is the largest proportion of his voters by far.

2018-08-03 23:57:56 UTC

Um

2018-08-03 23:58:07 UTC

Why did they vote for him

2018-08-03 23:58:17 UTC

And why would they vote for him a second time

2018-08-03 23:58:21 UTC

At least most important as a focus for PR.

2018-08-04 00:01:03 UTC

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/474462721715208232/475090758366658560/Degrees_of_Trump_Support_and_Opposition_-_PRRI.jpg

2018-08-04 00:10:23 UTC

Do they say why or no?

2018-08-04 00:22:32 UTC

no

2018-08-04 01:02:28 UTC

@๐ŸŽƒBoo-ton๐ŸŽƒ what is your source for them numbers?

2018-08-04 01:03:16 UTC

Reuters-Ipsos

2018-08-04 01:05:17 UTC

link

2018-08-04 01:06:11 UTC

no

2018-08-04 01:07:42 UTC

ty

2018-08-04 01:46:16 UTC

Based

2018-08-04 03:26:36 UTC
2018-08-04 03:26:48 UTC

This will help us Republicans win the elections

2018-08-04 03:30:12 UTC

We have to share this to ensure the Republicans win

2018-08-04 03:30:23 UTC

Trump has been weak on Russia

2018-08-04 03:30:42 UTC

We gotta rally the GOOD Republicans

2018-08-04 03:31:20 UTC

@William Foster shut up you retard

2018-08-04 03:31:32 UTC

The

2018-08-04 03:31:34 UTC

Good

2018-08-04 03:31:38 UTC

Republicans

2018-08-04 03:31:43 UTC

Fuck off

2018-08-04 03:31:48 UTC

This one's a troll. Ban him.

2018-08-04 03:31:50 UTC

Kike Shill

2018-08-04 03:34:18 UTC

@FLanon release me

2018-08-04 03:34:34 UTC

No time for a trial tommorrow

2018-08-04 03:35:00 UTC

*cummies*

2018-08-04 03:44:52 UTC

I'll stand by this ban.

2018-08-04 03:45:05 UTC

>muh Russia

2018-08-04 03:45:10 UTC

>elect GOOD Republicans

2018-08-04 03:45:12 UTC

>except anti-Russia

2018-08-04 04:18:46 UTC

@Nuke let me speak in text chat

2018-08-04 04:19:50 UTC

thank you

2018-08-04 04:19:59 UTC

@Winston Do you think allowing the two of them access to the California channel should be sufficient to help you out?

2018-08-04 04:20:28 UTC

please let me have full access while I am investigating OH12

2018-08-04 04:20:40 UTC

@Nuke yes, California goes inactive with out them

2018-08-04 04:20:51 UTC

@Winston protect me

2018-08-04 04:22:11 UTC

What's even happening?

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