This is amazing news

If the monmouth poll is the way 2018 goes, that's what, 240 in the House?

Easily a big rightward swing in the Senate

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_013118/

One thing I noticed about the tax plan in particular is that current support is tied at 44% A and 44% D

I hope the trend continues

Most people are saving on the tax plan according to MaximLotts

When they file in April, many people may get hit with the surprise

imagine how much butthurt we can witness from the left over the course of the next few months if the GOP is maintaining a constant lead in the polls

The media shilling falls to the wayside

What's funny is that they'll start saying polls are BS

come 2020, if the polls show Trump in a comfortable lead, they'll be crowing on about how it will be an upset like 2016, except for their side

Tax plan support is only going to get better as the year continues, I was surprised that it was a tie.

This shows it's only in the middle in growth of support, which will be in favor of the Rs

That Monmouth poll also covers 3 days.

Jan 28 - 30

Meaning that we can assume most people called were called BEFORE, not AFTER Trump's monumentally successful SOTU speech

In the next few days, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a poll which shows Rs having higher polling in the generic ballot than Dems.

Pop the champagne

The retirements are still problematic

Yeah, Gowdy's a great asset, it's a shame

But I think overall we're heading in a good direction if we can channel this energy

Ye, things are looking better than worse now

What makeup would a D+2 election have on the House?

GOP retains or even gains seats

truly astonishing

Trump's average approval rating is also higher than its been since June 30th, 2017

if things stay the same we can expect: R 231; D 204

53%, huh?

That's at D+5.6, right?

that's at 5.9, so we could expect 2-3 seats more

GOP could gain seats if it was D+2 ?

yes

districting

i have to admit, i didn't expect the GOP to get within the 5 range,
so +2 is very well a possibility now

We've got to remain with this positive messaging and perceived bipartisanship and allowing the dems to blunder and collapse under the progressive hysteria and then we'd have our red storm on lock.

Trump should do more live speeches in general.

Miller definitely has a strong hand, he should be very hard at work.

I think the tax bill will be a sign of great continued growth with the Rs, at least until April-May.

Tax season will have a lot of pleasant surprises.

it should,

right now it's only tied in support and there are still a lot of people who still have the media's leftist dogma ringing through their heads from last year

the GOP will have to pursue some other major, landmark legislation to be safe

44% A, 44% D, and according to Monmouth, " the number who believe that their taxes will go up (36%) outnumber those who believe that their taxes will go down (24%) or stay the same (32%) under the new system."

People who say their taxes will go up still have a plurality.

We've all seen the tax analyses where people see how their taxes are, and I swear, 90+% of the time, they go down.

When they check their taxes this season, the surprise will bring major growth to support to the bill as the undeniable effects become apparent to all taxpayers.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 They certainly should, but what legislation would fit the bill (pardon the pun)

What would be the effects on the Senate with the Dems at +2?

I know it's much more individual, but there's got to be an estimate, right?

D+2.9: 54-48 (+)
D+5.9: 53-47
D+7.9: 52-48
D+9.9: 51-49
D+12.9: 50-50

pretty much this

How do you do the math on that

by taking the 2016 house seat elections and shifting each election result by the average generic ballot (right now at 5.6)
I compile the data on excel to get the results and changes of each districts instantly,
a +5.6 democratic shift would only flip less than 10 districts, fortunately

53 seats in the senate would do some good

what are the results if the margin is R+2, R+5, R+10

I think that number is higher tbh if we look at it individually but it's good to know

We get substantial increases

gain, no change, loss (house flipped for Dems)

oh wait,

R

I see you put R, mb

We get /redstorm/

assuming that occurs...

let's see...

is the analysis coming in

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/158734150

new thread

R+2.9: R 241, D 194
R+5.9: R 247, D 188
R+7.9: R 254, D 181
R+9.9: R 276, D 159

Yeah that's what we want but I'd certainly be content w/ D+6 or below

ya, that's the most realistic approach

NYCanon, I think you might want to space out the posts throughout the thread instead of blowing everything at the start

it's a better rhythm I feel

people like more of the discussion and not just a ton of hard data and text to look through

maybe if an anon asks "I'm in X state, what should I do" then you drop the analysis on their specific state on them

no one really wants to scroll past all of the 50 state analysis to get to the meat of the thread, it's unpalatable especially to the average person on /pol/ who bumps blacked threads like a retard

hmm

sure

I figure that having a lot of content at the start can inspire people to respond to any one of the posts

one of the dangers of starting with only a couple posts is that people will look at the thread, see that there are only 2 posts, and don't feel compelled to post

which leads to it dying right from the start

it's like salt

OP's can't bump

too much spoils the whole meal

so I figure I'd copy and paste a lot of posts

I'll bump it

so that there's a greater chance of someone responding

thanks

hmm

let's have an artificial discussion in the thread

make a post about Florida

and I'll respond to it

lot of productive discussion going on in the general thankfully

Indeed

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Those are good stats for the House with positive R margins, but what about the Senate

also beyond a certain point, Republican majorities in the House won't mean much

a majority is still a majority

I'm not sure if generic ballot is the way to go when it comes to the senate, individual races are much more important

not much of a real difference between 260 Republicans and 300 Republicans in the House

At R+12.9, Republicans could get 59 seats