Neither can be proven
Both ideas depend on our own species becoming that technology advanced for it to be possible in our eyes
And most of why it is believed is due to conditioning by how we've grown up and all (Movies, Celebrities, School, etc)
you kind of have a point about it being unprovable. it just seems like life has a natural and linear progression. most of the universe can just be filled with dinosaur type creatures, but whatever makes it past all the bottlenecks will end up making tech and manipulating atoms and exploring and so on. like what else is there to really do
There is an interesting study connecting water bears and Panspermia. If you don’t already know what a water bear is here’s a video explaining them https://youtu.be/-irqb99btZY
