Message from @🎃Boo-ton🎃
Discord ID: 401223732523434004
so it is crucial that all Minnesotans are out voting on November
I'm the OP so I can't bump the thread
yeah, how likely do you think the GOP can win both senate seats in Minnesota
Trump would have won it were it not for McMullin
(and Gary Johnson, though he siphoned some votes from Hillary)
I'd say there's about a 40-45% chance of winning the special election in Minnesota
If Michelle Bachmann runs, it'd boost the odds
Is Joe Arpaio running for Senate in Arizona? Will Arizona become blue or stay red?
He is, he won't win the primaries
McSally is most likely
That's only if the majority of the people are evangelicals in Minnesota. I don't see how any liberal or maybe any moderate conservative would vote Bachmann
But in general, the midterms are probably going to be a Red Wave or just a stalemate. IDK how a Blue Wave might happen
expect a blue wave in some parts of the country
my biases are skewed as a former leftist...but Bachmann seems to appeal only to religious conservatives. She was kind of a joke in 2012, but then again so was Trump
^
Trump's got a problem with white college-educated suburban voters (AKA Soccer Moms)
oh yeah
however, most GOP candidates in congress won't
the left is trying to tout this as a referendum against Trump
I think it's going to be far more about candidate vs candidate, and somewhat about party vs party
to be fair,
all midterm elections are treated as a referendum of the sitting president and the party in power
remember in 2014?
"Soccer moms" are prevalent in the Midwest though, so I doubt its about who the people are more than the party they are currently in
Obama and his party got shlonged across the country
I think you could make the argument that the USA is still generally center-right, and that 2006 was an anomaly
neverTrumpers will still reliably vote for the GOP candidates in their district
Well, there was a resurgence of Tea Partiers at that time. Idk if there is going to be a progressive/populist resurgence this year
Maybe there is, IDK
and Trump democrats in the rust belt can be influenced to vote against Democrat candidates
Not if the Democrats are moderate Democrats though. Donnelly for instance is probably a more right-wing Democrat. Same with Manchin and Heitkamp
the GOP is going to spend a lot more money this year compared to the special elections last year, and they still managed to win most special elections
the only real victory the Democrats have was in Alabama, and that took a hell of a lot of money along with 24/7 pedo allegations running in the media
I don't understand why Democrats think that just because Alabama nearly went to Jones that somehow this is a referendum against Trump. Jones nearly won against a Pedo
it's good for us,
the Democrats will think they can win anywhere and with anyone
I mean, Jones did win
Moore was the one who 'nearly won'
Barely won***
despite the pedo allegations