midterms-discussions

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2018-02-16 02:40:25 UTC

Alright, so I think that would put our best case scenario, that's every candidate on that list winning (which is a very long shot of course, but still) at 63 R seats in the Senate.

2018-02-16 02:40:48 UTC

I'm sure that won't happen unless some massive story happens right before the midterms.

2018-02-16 02:42:44 UTC

Add Corey Stewart for Virginia and whoever is running in Maine and you have a list.

2018-02-16 02:43:11 UTC

This list is as of people who are realistically running right now, btw, no dream candidates like Lindell unless he announces a run.

2018-02-16 02:43:21 UTC

I'll add him, I've got a txt file

2018-02-16 02:43:22 UTC

oh, that's right,

2018-02-16 02:43:29 UTC

about gubernatorial races

2018-02-16 02:44:01 UTC

we have an oppurtunity to expand into Connecticut,

2018-02-16 02:44:14 UTC

so we should look into candidates for there as well

2018-02-16 02:44:17 UTC

Minnesota, too.

2018-02-16 02:44:35 UTC

we're talking strictly governors right now, right?

2018-02-16 02:44:55 UTC

Pennsylvania would be a good pickup. Lots of competitive races there.

2018-02-16 02:45:34 UTC

Colorado will probably be close.

2018-02-16 02:45:35 UTC

yeah, I think we've kinda been putting off the gubernatorial issue because of the US congress

2018-02-16 02:46:11 UTC

don't underestimate gubernatorial races,

2018-02-16 02:46:26 UTC

they usually determine how districts are gerrymandered

2018-02-16 02:46:26 UTC

we definitely need to have at least a list

2018-02-16 02:46:38 UTC

Seems like we have New Hampshire, Maryland, and Massachusetts in the bag.

2018-02-16 02:46:52 UTC

nothing's in the bag

2018-02-16 02:46:54 UTC

ever

2018-02-16 02:47:19 UTC

we've always got fight tooth and nail on everything if we want to keep what we have

2018-02-16 02:47:28 UTC

I don't think you understand the potential of Connecticut,

2018-02-16 02:47:43 UTC

I saw the map you posted

2018-02-16 02:47:53 UTC

If everything that can flip flips, we can get 40 governer's mansions.

2018-02-16 02:47:57 UTC

just 1 one more R state senator,

2018-02-16 02:48:17 UTC

and 7 more R state reps,

2018-02-16 02:48:47 UTC

and a R governor can redraw the map so an R can win a seat in the US House of Reps

2018-02-16 02:49:13 UTC

that's of importance, definitely

2018-02-16 02:49:32 UTC

it'd be great to have a US rep from that state

2018-02-16 02:50:17 UTC

Connecticut is prime property for expansion.

2018-02-16 02:50:39 UTC

It's majority white and has quite a lot of working class people.

2018-02-16 02:50:50 UTC

I think that areas like Connecticut, Delaware, NH, Maine could in a decade or 2 become red states

2018-02-16 02:51:00 UTC

NH and Maine are swing states already.

2018-02-16 02:51:19 UTC

it's an ongoing trend, they're the canaries in the coal mine

2018-02-16 02:51:49 UTC

I think that we'll have the GOP eventually become a big tent party like the dems used to be before the 2000s

2018-02-16 02:52:45 UTC

The Republicans have taken Dixie from the dems, are taking the rust belt from the dems, and could take the northeast from them eventually.

2018-02-16 02:53:42 UTC

These are the battle lines for politics in the future, the sun belt may go to the dems eventually.

2018-02-16 02:54:48 UTC

It depends on our immigration policy.

2018-02-16 02:55:12 UTC

yeah, we want to have hegemony over there for as long as possible

2018-02-16 02:55:55 UTC

and I think it's possible to keep it on our side permanently if we make sure to pass the right stuff

2018-02-16 02:56:24 UTC

If we stopped immigration from Mexico, the south will be red for quite a few decades.

2018-02-16 02:56:43 UTC

Dixie will be red for the rest of our lives

2018-02-16 02:56:59 UTC

The sun belt are where the demographic battle lines are

2018-02-16 02:58:09 UTC

But yeah, I could see Arizona and Texas becoming much more blue if we don't build a wall.

2018-02-16 02:58:18 UTC

Eh, to me it ends at the eastern border of Texas

2018-02-16 02:58:32 UTC

then the bible belt starts and so on

2018-02-16 03:01:09 UTC

Best case scenario for Republicans in the Governer's elections.

2018-02-16 03:02:11 UTC

Getting back to senatorial runs, apparently the Governor of Maine has flirted with a run multiple times

2018-02-16 03:02:27 UTC

Paul LePage? He seems to be quite popular, and would definitely make it competitive.

2018-02-16 03:03:08 UTC

Yeah, definitely, especially since King has the unique issue of the vote split since he's an (I)

2018-02-16 03:03:33 UTC

Baker? You mean King, right?

2018-02-16 03:03:41 UTC

lmao forgot his name

2018-02-16 03:03:41 UTC

You corrected that as soon as I posted.

2018-02-16 03:04:13 UTC

yeah, but in any case, that's an interesting possibility

2018-02-16 03:04:41 UTC

LePage has gone back and forth on this for years now, if he decides to run, I think it'd be an easy win

2018-02-16 03:06:11 UTC

I think Virginia and Maine are unappreciated battlegrounds.

2018-02-16 03:06:30 UTC

Maybe not VA in my opinion, but definitely Maine

2018-02-16 03:06:46 UTC

Trump was decently close to winning the state at large in 2016

2018-02-16 03:07:17 UTC

Corey Stewart can drive up turnout in the rural areas and appeal to Northerners, and if Tim Kaine's creepy behavior towards children is in adds, he could pull off a win.

2018-02-16 03:07:33 UTC

I certainly hope you're right

2018-02-16 03:07:54 UTC

Corey's a good guy

2018-02-16 03:08:50 UTC

He managed to win election in a 60-40 Dem-Rep area, and Kaine is poisoned by his Clinton run, so an upset is definitely possible.

2018-02-16 03:09:20 UTC

Hey, I hope so.

2018-02-16 03:10:31 UTC

New Jersey could be possible if the R's have a strong candidate. Not hoping on it, but the incumbent is scandal-ridden.

2018-02-16 03:10:54 UTC

Gotta add Corey.

2018-02-16 03:10:56 UTC

Alright, I'll look up the candidates and update the list

2018-02-16 03:13:55 UTC

The New Jersey declared candidate list is garbage

2018-02-16 03:14:27 UTC

Still, over half of people want Bob to resign, so it might be a potential upset.

2018-02-16 03:14:31 UTC

Thomas Kean Jr. is a good potential one though, and apparently he's been calling out illegals even in the fucking Bush era

2018-02-16 03:15:23 UTC

Let's hope he runs to make this more competitive.

2018-02-16 03:15:40 UTC

Yeah, I'll put him on the list since he's the most viable

2018-02-16 03:15:57 UTC

NJ somehow manages to get the worst candidates at everything

2018-02-16 03:16:25 UTC

Kean Jr. is doing well in polling also

2018-02-16 03:16:31 UTC

The only other potential flip is Maryland, and that's only if Chelsea Manning wins the primary.

2018-02-16 03:16:58 UTC

NJ Republican party after Christie is a mess

2018-02-16 03:17:02 UTC

Maybe New Mexico if the current governer runs for Senate.

2018-02-16 03:17:17 UTC

she's unpopular

2018-02-16 03:17:40 UTC

ouch, -20 approval

2018-02-16 03:17:44 UTC

she'll lose her seat, she's pretty done in politics after she loses in 2018

2018-02-16 03:17:53 UTC

Dang.

2018-02-16 03:18:19 UTC

Well, this seems to be the absolute best case scenario if the stars align:

2018-02-16 03:18:42 UTC

lol

2018-02-16 03:18:45 UTC

if only, if only.

2018-02-16 03:19:12 UTC

lmao we'd be able to get the NFA repealed with those numbers

2018-02-16 03:19:18 UTC

i'm not even sure Nevada can stay red

2018-02-16 03:19:26 UTC

this is best case

2018-02-16 03:19:31 UTC

Eh, it's a toss up.

2018-02-16 03:19:50 UTC

shoot for the stars, I say.

2018-02-16 03:20:04 UTC

Hell, I'll add Shiva in Mass, why the hell not

2018-02-16 03:20:12 UTC

thinking that as well

2018-02-16 03:20:26 UTC

also, _two_ Minnesota seats?

2018-02-16 03:20:38 UTC

best case

2018-02-16 03:20:43 UTC

absolute best case

2018-02-16 03:20:46 UTC

If Mike Lindell runs for Klobuchar's seat, it's possible.

2018-02-16 03:21:15 UTC

it'll be interesting if Kevin de Leon primaries Feinstein and wins

2018-02-16 03:25:33 UTC

If Dwayne Johnson suddenly decides to get into politics, he could flip California. That has a 0.00000000001 percent chance of happening, though.

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