Message from @Argument of Perigee
Discord ID: 433695516665184262
Anyone thinking of buying a home should really hold off
@Zyzz thanks, makes sense. I've been looking (just looking) at places to buy in Manhattan and something I've noticed is that houses very often close for 30% or more off of the original asking price these days. Makes me think the appraisers are off their rockers again.
30% below asking price?
@Zyzz yeah, the initial asking price I mean
Wow interesting
Not all the time, sometimes it's like 20%
Can’t say the same for Florida. Most places go for above ask. Which underscores that real estate is local
@Zyzz interesting, makes sense though. I think part of it in NYC is there are unreal expectations for housing prices. The New York Times writes stories all the time of buyers rushing and outbidding each other in cash for housing. I read those NYT articles and get scared. But then whenever I'm looking at the listing history of any actual place I might consider buying in the future, it's always the opposite story. A place gets listed with an asking price and then over a year's time they keep lowering the price until it sells.
@Zyzz when I said "makes sense though" I meant it makes sense that real estate is local. But what I wonder is: why do you think the prices are like that in your area?
@ThisIsChris Florida has very high net in-migration, favorable tax rates, great weather, and many jobs/companies are moving here
Rents have been sky rocketing in Orlando bc of all the PR migration
@Zyzz thanks for the explanation.
I'm conflicted a bit due to rising interest rates.
@Argument of Perigee at some point we will get a recession. At that time there will be no(or very few) buyers in the market and real estate will be relatively cheap. The fed will lower interest rates to help in the recovery. Just remember you can always refi with a lower rate. You can’t change what you paid for the house
With the said, the longer the boom runs the harder/deeper/more prolonged the “crash” typically is.
Look at the dotcom bubble versus the recession we had in 2001/2002
Most people didn’t even know we were in a recession in the early 2000’s but we were. Everyone knows about the dotcom bubble
I'm fully expecting bad things soon for sure.
CO has performed nicely. That’s for sure
Yea, last time I moved to CO just following the big recession I wanted to buy, but prices hadn't moved. 😢
Market crash Monday my dudes, you all ready?
The market usually responds favorably to war. Not that I am condoning the Syria strikes at all
@Zyzz yeah last night I found myself wishing the markets were open. Trading gives a kind of outlet for "oh I have a new piece of information what do I do with it now", because otherwise all I can do is complain about the strikes or ignore them.
@ThisIsChris it certainly does although it’s probable it’s already been priced in. I have been heavy in defense and aerospace bc trump and Israel and neocons and all that. It doesn’t take a genius to conclude the chance of war/increased military spending under this admin will hopen
Happen
@Zyzz definitely, I'm starting to see the wisdom in that
Trying to learn a bit about algorithmic trading: https://www.quantopian.com/tutorials/getting-started
Wish I had had the agency to buy SBUX when the news broke of them being /our coffee/
Can't get lower...but now. Wait, can it?
It can, but I think the recent boycott news is priced in now. These emotional libby things I expect a quick dip then return, which is what already happened (dip on Friday, and then climb back up on Monday, so I think that ship has sailed already)
Any reason to think the VA 30-year mortgage rate will move in the next 20 days? I'm floating the rate at the moment.
@Zyzz @SamanthaM ^^
@Argument of Perigee there is a fed meeting May 1-2. I don't think they are expected to hike rates but you never know
4/27 we have the 1st reading (out of 3) of 1Q18 GDP
negative news here would be in your favor
and then of course 1st fri of every month we have the unemployment reading
Always appreciate your input @Zyzz Thank you, Sir!