Doing it this way, I wonder if we should be looking at an ETF with fewer holdings so that we can look into each major holding individually, though if there is another way I would love to know

individual stock research is a lot of work and even with all the research there could be something you just miss or never thought about that tanks the stock.. it could be bad or greedy management.. which for us would be tough for us to be privy to

Hey that's OK then, maybe SPY going up isn't the thing, maybe we should be looking at SPY to go down over the year then. That's actually kind of more interesting because we might expect a slight boost at the beginning thanks to the tax cuts, and then a reversion later in the year

i used to pick stocks and i did not do very well and it was mostly due to stock specific issues so i changed to pick sectors or invest in income producing securities like preferred stock

yeah my issue with that is i have no idea when the market will tank. i know we are in a bubble but it seems like trump and everyone else in congress is deadset on blowing it until it pops on its own. i am not about to be short this market it just seems like their is too much momentum with the tax bill etc. it'd be like shorting the market in 2005/2006 imo

I'm back, catching up to the thread...

I agree with @Zyzz The aggregate P/E of the S&P is too high for me to be comfortable making large bets on upwards moves

If I were to do that, I would want to hedge for a big crash

I think it's going to go up 10% on the year or nosedive hard.

but that and $4 will get you a coffee at (((Starbucks)))

@Zyzz here's a question, do you think we could say that even if the market goes up possibily, can we be confident saying it *won't* go up 10%? Maybe selling those OTM calls is a way to go on this

@Deleted User what catalyst do you see for a nose dive?

War is the most obvious thing, but a general bubble-popping correction seems overdue.

Nose dive not sure, but we could get interest rate hikes from the fed

@ThisIsChris i am seeing dec 2018 295 strike calls sell at ~2.6. i dont think thats enough premium for me to hold for a year with unlimited loss potential

I don't see things staying static is all I'm sayin'

@Deleted User war is a possibility with NK no question. What would pop the bubble?

I think a broad-scale pullback on credit

i am expecting rate hikes from the fed.. i think cadence of rate increases is key

too many rate hikes, too quickly will spell disater

IMO the american consumer is tapped out

agreed

The outstanding credit numbers are nuts, both in the consumer and corporate spheres

I think that's what is driving a lot of the increase in stock prices

@Zyzz agreed on the decembers, now I'm looking at chains for more near term (also included on the pdf)

lenders get frightened? i can see that happening. what would cause them to get frightened?

I'm saying that there will be a pull back on people seeking credit

especially if interest rates rise

i 100% agree that consumers are buying on credit rather than actual money they are earning

or rather, I'm saying that pullback would be the catalyst

I guess what always frightens lenders, if people default. @Zyzz you gave a pretty good analysis the other day on default rates for the largest asset classes. I actually wanted to ask where you find that data

gonna be AFK for a bit but I'll rejoin later and jump in if I have anything to say.

Hope you do!

@ThisIsChris https://seekingalpha.com/news/3319607-p-e-players-trouble-cashing-subprime-auto-plays

i get a lot of my student loan info from zerohedge

@Zyzz Interesting. If I understand the process your analysis took: 1. You knew that understanding the size and eliinquincy rates of different asset classes was important to know, and then 2. you googled around for articles that talked to each asset class and its delinquincy rates. Is that correct? I'm just trying to understand process, I thought there might just be a single database where you go to get these types of facts, but I also wouldn't be surprised if such a database didn't exist and you just have to know the right question to ask and start googling

And the reason I'm trying to understand process is I'm also trying to learn how to do good research myself of course

Not trying to "question" or something

@ThisIsChris at work we talk about this stuff a lot. that seeking alpha link was something i knew intuitively (subprime auto defaults) but didn't know an actual %. there are a lot of people in SoFl with nicer cars than me and I know damn well they do not make as much money as I do.

student loans I knew about by reading zerohedge. i have also heard anecdotal stories of high debt loads and parent cosigners (you remember cannoliqueen?)

we understand recessions happen every 8 or so years.. the last one was in 2009