Message from @Darth

Discord ID: 396857294371029014


2017-12-30 16:54:32 UTC  

@ThisIsChris Entrepreneurship is way down partly because of student loan debt, and that’s not helpful for the market.

2017-12-30 16:57:20 UTC  

Also, that’s a lot of capital that would have gone to other more productive uses had the market manipulations not channeled so much of it into overpriced academia.

2017-12-30 16:58:28 UTC  

Every market manipulation has an easily observable benefit for a small sliver of the economy, and a larger unseen detriment.

2017-12-30 16:59:44 UTC  

I highly recommend this book for everyone in this channel, it’s a short easy read:
https://www.mises.org/library/economics-one-lesson

2017-12-30 17:01:12 UTC  

@Zyzz great chart, shows we are at the peak of the boom-bust cycle. We should prepare ourselves while times are good.

2017-12-30 17:02:43 UTC  

Everyone make sure you have enough saved to last a minimum of 6 months of unemployment.

2017-12-30 17:03:49 UTC  

And don’t expect unemployment payments from the government to be a fall-back plan.

2017-12-30 17:04:46 UTC  

Also, the FDIC only has less than 1% reserves for the FDIC insurance on your bank account, so in a crisis, your money will not be protected.

2017-12-30 17:24:23 UTC  

@Tanner - SC#6686 i agree. I have only small credit card debt that i pay off every month and a lot of cash on hand

2017-12-30 18:25:45 UTC  

@Zyzz WTF, you have credit card debt and you're giving investment advice? What's the APR on that, 15%?

2017-12-30 18:36:07 UTC  

as i said, i pay it off every month. ie: i do not carry a balance

2017-12-30 18:36:57 UTC  

also, even if i did carry a balance, not sure how thats relevant to my ability to give investment advice/analyze the current environment

2017-12-30 20:24:14 UTC  

It’s not debt if you don’t carry a balance. I thought you meant you were making payments against a carried balance.

2017-12-30 20:25:42 UTC  

As for advice, anyone who is paying 15%, 20% on cc debt obviously doesn’t understand finance, like a fat man giving diet advice. But that’s not the case for you.

2017-12-30 20:26:59 UTC  

I figured it wasn’t, given your analysis earlier was too sharp to be someone carrying a balance.

2017-12-30 22:51:43 UTC  

A lot of people get tricked into playing the stupid games the credit agencies have you play. They get a credit card and pay off 3/4 of it every month because having a small balance to charge interest to gives you a small 20 point boost. Just pay off the whole debt every couple weeks. That's what I do, and my credit is near perfect (or as close as you can get)

2017-12-31 02:10:45 UTC  

This looks ugly, where has all this money gone? Straight from the fed into bonds? Is there really 3x as much currency units today as existed 10 years ago?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

2017-12-31 02:14:13 UTC  

QE Infinity....

2017-12-31 02:19:16 UTC  

Everyone should be incredibly careful about giving personalized investment advice on here

2017-12-31 02:39:00 UTC  

@Darth absolutely, just yesterday pinned a notice to only invest money you can risk losing. Feel free to @ everyone to repeat every once in a while, I will try to do it every few days. See pins for an example

2017-12-31 02:49:12 UTC  

Yeah, just making sure, brother. :-) With being an attorney, I can be a little anxious...hahaha

2017-12-31 02:53:04 UTC  

We don't need FINRA and the SEC up in our grills...haha

2017-12-31 19:10:12 UTC  

"The Fed's "balance sheet normalization" will accelerate as 2018 progresses: In Q1, the Fed is scheduled to shed $60 billion in securities, in Q2 $90 billion, in Q3 $120 billion, and in Q4 $150 billion, for a total of $420 billion. This is scheduled to increase to $600 billion in 2019."

2017-12-31 19:14:16 UTC  

What does this mean really? We don’t really have reserve requirements anymore so this will just reduce the money supply by that much every quarter correct?

2017-12-31 19:15:26 UTC  

a quick google search tell me the reserve requirement is 10%

2017-12-31 19:15:38 UTC  

the jist of the article was talking about the yield curve

2017-12-31 19:16:01 UTC  

currently it is flat - ~50bp spread between the 10yr and 2yr

2017-12-31 19:16:28 UTC  

an inverted yield curve (short rates greater than long term rates) is a leading indicator a recession is on the horizon. we had this in 2006

2017-12-31 19:17:01 UTC  

the above quote shows that fed has ammo to keep the yield curve normal (short rates lower than long rates) which is a good thing

2017-12-31 19:18:36 UTC  

Trying to find the report but apparently banks have gone on record saying that they will make loans without reserves and find the reserves later. Maybe they are referring to the discount window

2017-12-31 19:18:42 UTC  

again, its importnt to watch cadence of fed rate increases.. too quick and it will trigger a recession i believe. 2-3 rate hikes it about right for 2018. 50-75bp increase puts us at ~2% fed fund rate

2017-12-31 19:37:07 UTC  

The increases you are talking about are to the discount rate, correct?

2017-12-31 19:39:10 UTC  

the federal fund rate is the minimum rate banks can borrow from other banks. the discount rate is the rate at which banks can borrow directly from the fed

2017-12-31 19:44:15 UTC  

Right but the fed reserve only controls the discount rate directly where as the fed funds rate is indirectly controlled correct

2017-12-31 19:44:37 UTC  

that is my understanding yes

2018-01-01 02:34:21 UTC  

@Zyzz have you read Gottfried Feders "Breaking interest slavery"? and what do you think of his pronouncements, or generally the argument against usury or borrowing money at interest? is money only a measure and an exchange or should it be treated as a commodity?

2018-01-01 02:41:29 UTC  

@REVNAT/PA I haven't read the book but my thoughts on charging interest on loans is as follows: no one in their right mind would give you money (for free) with the expectation that it'll be paid back at a later date. lending money has inherent risks (not being paid back) and a lender should receive adequate compensation for that risk(interest). additionally, if you are going to lend money out to someone, that means you are unable to use that capital. a lender deserves some form of compensation for being without his capital for that period. if usury were abolished i would not lend it out to anyone because there would be no payoff for me and i would be without my capital for whatever period of time i had lent it for

2018-01-01 03:24:42 UTC  

What about state run usury like they had in Colonial Pennsylvania

2018-01-01 03:25:51 UTC  

Usury is necessary, it is a market signal for the price of money's time value.