Message from Tanner - SC in MacGuyver - Skills & Academics #noncrypto-investing

2017-12-29 15:43:47 UTC  

i am waiting for the moment when soverign debt investors start looking at a countries demographics and demographic projections (by race), look at avg IQ by race, and consider those varibles when pricing a country's debt

2017-12-29 16:08:33 UTC  

They probably already are

2017-12-29 16:09:26 UTC  

ok well in 20yrs the risk premium on US treasuries will go way up

2017-12-29 16:13:38 UTC  

So on the question of where to put money for long term investment, will we beat the rest of the world or will the rest of the world as a whole beat us? In your opinion of course, just want to see your perspective as someone on the ground

2017-12-29 16:15:35 UTC  

the US has had tremendous growth since 1980. it will be hard to top that over the next 40 years. and that includes the financial crisis. the US is a mature/developed economy so we have that working against us as well

2017-12-29 16:16:24 UTC  

there are certainly other parts of the world where it'll be far easier to have +4% GDP growth simply if their govts would get out of the way

2017-12-29 16:17:17 UTC  

Argentina used to be one of the world's best economies in the early 20th century (look at demographics and you'll see why). It fell in the 60's due to corruption from the Peron family and hasnt really recovered

2017-12-29 16:18:17 UTC  

if argentina's govt could get out of its own way they most certainly have the human capital to grow at an above avg rate over the next few decades

2017-12-29 16:21:18 UTC  

the question is what will cause these countries to implement the needed reform to have fully functioning economies

2017-12-29 16:23:12 UTC  

Thanks for the analysis 👍🏻

2017-12-29 17:19:36 UTC  

I'm a firm believer in keeping a portion of your assets outside of the banking/equity system.

2017-12-29 17:47:44 UTC  

@Tanner - SC what do you own outside of the banking/equity system? Gold? RE?

2017-12-30 07:11:33 UTC  

@ThisIsChris ^ "govt student loan portfolio $1.37 trillion"

2017-12-30 11:52:15 UTC  

@Zyzz that is bad for students, but is that bad for the overall economy in terms of stock market or whatever? This is going to sound supremely Jewish, but only looking at it autistically from an investment standpoint, it looks like this student loan debt will pressure people to take jobs on terms they might otherwise turndown or renegotiate because they are more at the mercy of their student loan payments. This lack of negotiating power on the part of labor would be beneficial for companies. Thus while student loan debt is bad for working people, I'm trying to understand if it is bad from the POV of hurting investments like stocks

2017-12-30 15:18:01 UTC  

@ThisIsChris I think you are right. The only impact this has is people with debt will not be able to consume as much (need to pay debt) and will be unable to buy homes (which isn't always a bad thing). They will just end up renting rather than buying a home. From an investors standpoint, this will not cause a bubble as they are not allowed to discharge debts in bankruptcy and there are plenty of ways for lenders to garnish wages.

2017-12-30 15:19:22 UTC  

I can see people with debt having less flexibility which will lead to them taking less risks from an employment standpoints (turning down job offers, quitting jobs, entreprenuerial endeavors, etc.)

2017-12-30 16:26:32 UTC  

savings rate is 2.9%

2017-12-30 16:54:32 UTC  

@ThisIsChris Entrepreneurship is way down partly because of student loan debt, and that’s not helpful for the market.

2017-12-30 16:57:20 UTC  

Also, that’s a lot of capital that would have gone to other more productive uses had the market manipulations not channeled so much of it into overpriced academia.

2017-12-30 16:58:28 UTC  

Every market manipulation has an easily observable benefit for a small sliver of the economy, and a larger unseen detriment.

2017-12-30 16:59:44 UTC  

I highly recommend this book for everyone in this channel, it’s a short easy read:

2017-12-30 17:01:12 UTC  

@Zyzz great chart, shows we are at the peak of the boom-bust cycle. We should prepare ourselves while times are good.

2017-12-30 17:02:43 UTC  

Everyone make sure you have enough saved to last a minimum of 6 months of unemployment.

2017-12-30 17:03:49 UTC  

And don’t expect unemployment payments from the government to be a fall-back plan.

2017-12-30 17:04:46 UTC  

Also, the FDIC only has less than 1% reserves for the FDIC insurance on your bank account, so in a crisis, your money will not be protected.

2017-12-30 17:24:23 UTC  

@Tanner - SC#6686 i agree. I have only small credit card debt that i pay off every month and a lot of cash on hand

2017-12-30 18:25:45 UTC  

@Zyzz WTF, you have credit card debt and you're giving investment advice? What's the APR on that, 15%?

2017-12-30 18:36:07 UTC  

as i said, i pay it off every month. ie: i do not carry a balance

2017-12-30 18:36:57 UTC  

also, even if i did carry a balance, not sure how thats relevant to my ability to give investment advice/analyze the current environment

2017-12-30 20:24:14 UTC  

It’s not debt if you don’t carry a balance. I thought you meant you were making payments against a carried balance.

2017-12-30 20:25:42 UTC  

As for advice, anyone who is paying 15%, 20% on cc debt obviously doesn’t understand finance, like a fat man giving diet advice. But that’s not the case for you.

2017-12-30 20:26:59 UTC  

I figured it wasn’t, given your analysis earlier was too sharp to be someone carrying a balance.

2017-12-30 22:51:43 UTC  

A lot of people get tricked into playing the stupid games the credit agencies have you play. They get a credit card and pay off 3/4 of it every month because having a small balance to charge interest to gives you a small 20 point boost. Just pay off the whole debt every couple weeks. That's what I do, and my credit is near perfect (or as close as you can get)

2017-12-31 02:10:45 UTC  

This looks ugly, where has all this money gone? Straight from the fed into bonds? Is there really 3x as much currency units today as existed 10 years ago?

2017-12-31 02:14:13 UTC  

QE Infinity....

2017-12-31 02:19:16 UTC  

Everyone should be incredibly careful about giving personalized investment advice on here

2017-12-31 02:39:00 UTC  

@Darth absolutely, just yesterday pinned a notice to only invest money you can risk losing. Feel free to @ everyone to repeat every once in a while, I will try to do it every few days. See pins for an example

2017-12-31 02:49:12 UTC  

Yeah, just making sure, brother. :-) With being an attorney, I can be a little anxious...hahaha