Message from Tanner - SC in MacGuyver - Skills & Academics #noncrypto-investing

2018-01-03 19:28:54 UTC  

@ThisIsChris nice call on NVDA. Are you selling or holding the options you currently own?

2018-01-03 19:42:28 UTC  

@Zyzz good question! Now I'm not sure since this is a lot more movement faster than I was expecting, but I will probably sell, maybe roll out or buy back in closer to earnings, not sure yet

2018-01-03 19:45:01 UTC  

@Zyzz I just rolled them out to 220 strike for a credit

2018-01-03 19:45:59 UTC  

Whenever my limit order goes through immediately I wonder if I should have asked more lol

2018-01-04 13:55:39 UTC  

@here just a generic and friendly reminder to not risk money you can't lose. Also that no one here has a crystal ball and unforseen risks can arise.

2018-01-04 13:56:04 UTC  

2018-01-04 18:03:04 UTC  

@Why Tea How do you insulate your investments from crashes?

2018-01-04 18:06:24 UTC  

Well you can't entirely insulate, but you can reduce the risk by diversifying across asset classes that are loosely coupled / correlated with each other.

2018-01-04 18:07:48 UTC  

A bad year in the housing market or for commercial rents isn't tied to a bad year for long term bonds, and isn't connected directly with returns on non-cyclical industries, etc.

2018-01-04 18:08:11 UTC  

"Own lots of different stuff."

2018-01-04 18:08:49 UTC  

I can write/copypasta more about it later and I'm sure our professionals have excellent input to provide.

2018-01-04 18:11:08 UTC  

I'm not a pro just an amateur byt one thing comes to mind about one particular sector: you can protect stock investments with "protective puts" which are just puts on stock you currently own.

2018-01-04 18:11:48 UTC  

We could definitely benefit from someone giving an overview on options and strategies like covered calls and protective puts.

2018-01-04 18:13:27 UTC  

I saw that in here earlier. I've used covered calls with success on some big, slow moving, high-dividend blue chips, etc.

2018-01-04 18:15:17 UTC  

Oh yeah I like covered calls, for that

2018-01-05 01:31:00 UTC  

Here's a nice slideshow from investopedia with 10 common option strategies, I think it's good and concise if you already know what an option is.

2018-01-07 01:58:13 UTC  

@ThisIsChris Congrats on the awesome NVDA play and thanks for sharing! I've been busy with the kids, but I would have totally jumped on that too.

2018-01-07 01:58:55 UTC  

@Belzec if you still want a rundown on covered calls LMK.

2018-01-10 04:03:40 UTC  

Oh yeah, the recession is coming. We are nearing peak euphoria.

2018-01-10 04:06:47 UTC  

It may be, but ZH is a pretty doomsayer-y site.

2018-01-10 04:16:26 UTC This shows some striking examples of how bubbles can be artificially created and deliberately popped, while also alluding to benefits of economic fascism or at least "productive lending."

2018-01-11 14:45:49 UTC  

@Deleted User @Zyzz I sold my NVDA calls yesterday because NVDA covered all the gap I felt I could reasonably expect in the time window I was looking at and I was losing time value. Now I'm thinking of repositioning myself, NVDA has had nothing but good news lately and its competitors are falling behind, yet I don't think some recent news will be reflected in the next earnings report so I'm looking for a new position. I'm expecting trickling upward movements the rest of the month, which are making me think of buying some vertical spreads, but I'm not sure which ones yet. I'm thinking really near term, like this week or next week expiry, though I'm not sure if I want ATM, OTM, or ITM, that would probably depend on expiry date. Nearer term would make me lean towards ITM vertical call spread, longer term makes me think more OTM vertical call spread. Thoughts and opinions?

2018-01-11 15:44:09 UTC  

Hmm, I'm still looking at different expiries. The gorilla in the room is that earnings report is coming out 2/8. One thing I've noticed is that just before earnings the near-expiry spreads tend to approach 50% of their max possible payouts, which theoretically makes sense, and deviations from that reflect market expectations of going up or down. That makes me think the right move may be to look at the 2/9 spreads that are trading < 50% their max payouts, such as the 225/227.5 vertical call spread, which is currently trading around 1.10 and by this theory would approach 1.25 by 2/8.

2018-01-11 17:04:00 UTC  

Let me know if you guys have thoughts. I'm starting to realize I have no theses I feel strongly about on NVDA anymore, so I will probably idle a while until something catches my eye again

2018-01-11 20:46:53 UTC  

@ThisIsChris I’ll get back to you later today

2018-01-11 20:57:05 UTC  

@Zyzz thanks. I keep checking the options chains. Sometimes things look like good opportunities, but then I start overthinking them and step back

2018-01-11 22:21:24 UTC  

@ThisIsChris the only time I play options is when I have high conviction. Otherwise I don’t. I think you may have answered your own question in the last message. Also, I am unfamiliar with the spread strategy so I’m not too qualified to comment.

2018-01-11 22:22:57 UTC  

Also what do you think would cause the stock to go up from where it’s at currently? It seems like the market has made a big move and you have made money. Why not take your profit and move on?

2018-01-11 22:37:01 UTC  

@Zyzz yeah you're right. I still have some mild opinions which is why I have been reluctant to look away, but I agree it's probably a better habit for me to look elsewhere. I've done a lot of research on it comparing with it's competitors AMD and Intel and it has in my opinion good fundamentals, but I don't have any reason to expect sharp increases this quarter, thanks for second opinion.
As for vertical spreads and such, I love talking and thinking about these type of things, I should write something about it sometime. A vertical call spread is buying at a low strike and selling at a higher strike, with the same expiry. It's kind of like a covered call in that it's a limited payoff strategy. For high volatility stocks, at the money spreads are approximately like European binary options. For low volatility stocks they are more like leveraged covered calls.

2018-01-12 16:25:27 UTC  

If the market finishes the day up I believe it will be 9/10 trading days the market has gone up

2018-01-12 16:25:53 UTC  

Of the last trading days *

2018-01-12 20:17:49 UTC  

@Zyzz looks like we're gonna make it

2018-01-12 21:21:22 UTC  

I’m up 7% in my SSO position which is WAYYY more than what I was expecting at this point in time. I am thinking if it keeps ripping like this I will lighten up on my position if it gets to the point where I am up 10%

2018-01-12 21:22:11 UTC  

I am also thinking of completely selling out by May along the old adage “sell in May and go away”

2018-01-13 00:30:26 UTC  

@Zyzz SSO position?

2018-01-13 00:34:07 UTC  

@ThisIsChris yeah thats the 2x S&P index fund i posted about at the end of Dec.

2018-01-13 00:34:26 UTC  

ohh right. Good job man, you were right you called it!

2018-01-14 18:53:53 UTC  

^that is an interesting article. Energy stocks have not done well since oil fell in 2014/2015 i believe