Message from @ThisIsChris

Discord ID: 407364670169677875


2018-01-29 00:43:55 UTC  

@Zyzz yeah I don't see why a lender wouldn't allow it unless he's worried the borrower is going to die soon. What this makes me wonder if this bubble could just keep growing for a decade or two, since I don't see why lenders would start clamping down now. Although I think that's what you are saying, now that I think about it, that it is something that will instead exacberate some other crisis if lenders become short on money and start demanding the balances start getting paid off. Right?

2018-01-29 00:45:59 UTC  

@ThisIsChris an easy way around "the borrower may die soon" is to require a cosigner to the loan. or require a down payment upfront. yes, the zero hedge article does mention this could be a slow build in the level of debt some people have. a slow snowball effect. I think this is probable.

2018-01-29 00:47:19 UTC  

yes i think in times of crisis during a refinance a lender may require a downpayment from the borrower. or they may require the borrower pay down the negative equity balance

2018-01-29 00:51:10 UTC  

Interesting, do you have any suggested investments that might take advantage of this information? Shorting car manufacturers perhaps? @Zyzz This is on my todo list of things to research this week but I don't have many ideas to start. As I understand it for new cars it is often the manufacturer themselves that provides the financing, I don't know about the used car market though.

2018-01-29 00:54:45 UTC  

@Why Tea I knew a guy who had been paying off his car for 7 years

2018-01-29 02:04:03 UTC  

@ThisIsChris yeah shorting car manufacturers and suppliers is a good start. Subprime lenders or really any company that has exposure to subprime credit is a good area to look. I do not have the conviction to name companies/price targets but those are the areas

2018-01-29 02:04:29 UTC  

Another way to think of it is what ripple effect will these defaults have.

2018-01-29 02:05:17 UTC  

I remember during the financial crisis is seemed like it was one subsector after the other that was getting hit on different weeks and months. First it was the banks, then the agencies, then the home builders, etc

2018-01-29 02:06:15 UTC  

Also just so you know I am not necessarily keeping track of this stuff bc I want to start a short on any particular company but because I want to keep my pulse on the boom in the business cycle.

2018-01-29 02:07:23 UTC  

The real money will be made when it all crashes. And I don’t mean on the short end. I mean when it crashes and settles. When that happens no one will 1) have money and 2) will want to buy anything. This is where the real money is made

2018-01-29 02:07:58 UTC  

The richest guys are those who had spare cash in 2010 and 2011. Those who bought property when you couldn’t give it away

2018-01-29 02:19:18 UTC  

@Zyzz It's really just hard for me to believe it will get down to those levels again. I kinda WANT to believe that it will, just because it was such an amazing time to buy and now I might actually be able to, but there's a huge question to me whether I should stay in the stock market or hold back and wait for an economic crisis.

2018-01-29 02:26:28 UTC  

@ThisIsChris i would continue to invest in the market. the idea is to keep your hand on the pulse of it all. the main reason why i think about and attemp to predict the next cause of the next recession is so i can pull my money out when it looks like we are getting close

2018-01-29 02:27:03 UTC  

with that said, keep a diversified portfolio and a healthy amount in cash

2018-01-29 02:27:44 UTC  

@Zyzz Thanks for the perspective man

2018-01-29 02:29:09 UTC  

Yeah I would like to know that too, my head's been spinning seeing Bitcoin then NVDA then AMZN going up so fast, as well as the overall market in general.

2018-01-29 02:31:35 UTC  

the market has been on a tear which makes me nervous which is why i sold half my SSO stake when i hit a 10% return

2018-01-29 02:34:09 UTC  

i am taking part of that money and redeploying in an Aerospace & Defense fund and adding a little bit to my CLNS-J preferred stock which is currently yielding ~7.6% after selling off

2018-01-29 02:35:57 UTC  

i go back and forth between how much cash i want on hand vs. how much i want to be invested

2018-01-29 02:40:26 UTC  

most of my investments are in retirement accounts so i wont have access to it for quite some time

2018-01-29 02:41:45 UTC  

@Zyzz yep most of my investments are in retirement accounts too, split about half and half between retirement accounts and retail accounts.

2018-02-01 19:40:26 UTC  

@Zyzz is it a good idea to buy and hold bond funds as interest rates are rising? The underlying fund will go down in value but would the interest payments make up for the decline?

2018-02-01 19:48:59 UTC  

@GetOffMyState#8267 highly unlikely. Now is generally a good time to get out/not buy yield stocks and bonds. If you absolutely have to(or want to) hold some sort of fixed income product you’re going to want to buy something with a high coupon/dividend rate (assuming they can actually make the payment/cover the dividend). The idea being is a a larger part of their present value is made up of the coupon payment as opposed to the bond maturity value so the inevitable decline in value (as rates rise) will not be as severe as it would at a lower coupon level (all else equal). To answer your question directly, given the low level of interest almost all bonds pay right now, no the interest earned would not make up for most of the decline

2018-02-05 20:12:18 UTC  

No stockmarket watchu doin stahp

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/410165761860960306/Screen_Shot_2018-02-05_at_3.11.00_PM.png

2018-02-05 21:02:14 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/410178330042826763/image.gif

2018-02-05 22:08:12 UTC  

haha thanks @Deleted User . WIsh I had checked my Doom Paul o'meter this morning

2018-02-06 03:42:58 UTC  
2018-02-06 03:44:01 UTC  

Old Fed Chair says she created a bubble

2018-02-06 10:45:03 UTC  

Lol created a bubble? Of course she did. This entire “recovery” has been about asset appreciation. Only now are we actually starting to see wage growth

2018-02-06 14:52:15 UTC  

hm, market opening strong today

2018-02-07 00:12:43 UTC  

Bro my normie mom has lost so much money the past few days and is buying at the same time lol.

2018-02-07 00:18:47 UTC  

@JesseJames wow i feel bad for her losing money , today was a respite for her though, market went up

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/410590178285977601/Screen_Shot_2018-02-06_at_7.18.20_PM.png

2018-02-07 00:22:29 UTC  

I haven't spoken to her today but I'd say she is pleased with that. She was telling me it was some kind of correction where it shot up so fast. I'm not into trading and all of my investments are in very safe places. And I leave them alone. She is very into trading and investing. She lost 200k after 911 and stuck with it and loves it.

2018-02-07 00:27:21 UTC  

@JesseJames despite the loss, she sounds like a lady that follows stocks! People have been expecting a correction for a few weeks now, it's part of the normal business cycle

2018-02-07 00:48:27 UTC  

Yes for a woman she is pretty smart. Also pretty darn successful.

2018-02-07 04:24:53 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/406713267898155019/Screen_Shot_2018-01-27_at_2.31.15_AM.png @Tanner - SC interesting check out this picture I made a few weeks ago, it's just snapshots comparing household debt by asset class now and before the 2008 crash. One noticable thing is how HIGH automotive debt is. And if you look deeper in the fed report, some 31% of automotive loans are in default, it's crazy

2018-02-07 11:07:56 UTC  

The auto loan market is a mess. I don’t understand how they can still make all of these auto loans and have defaults like that. Who the hell is buying all of these securitized auto loan products?

2018-02-07 11:09:19 UTC  

A pull back in auto lending will send ripples through the auto industry which will probably result in layoffs at manufacturing plants/dealerships/auto lending people. Perhaps even at the corporate level as well

2018-02-09 06:20:50 UTC  

Wow, this may be one of the most accessible yet comprehensive investing guide's I've seen: http://tlc.thinkorswim.com/center/howToTos/main/0/groups/0/file/HowTothinkoswim.pdf

2018-02-09 15:01:19 UTC  

Will check this out after work