Message from @Deleted User
Discord ID: 431262388780793866
Follow-up, I don't have a thesis yet on direction of movement, but the weekly options expiring friday are priced for a one standard deviation move of 4.265 i.e. +/- 7% That seems reasonable to me based on recent price movements so I'm not going to try direction neutral strategies like selling a straddle.
In the end I'm not taking action with respect to MU's earnings. I found some news about a new product line that probably explains their 50% increase in the past month. But so I have a feeling most good news is priced in. I read another analyst report, this time by credit suisse. The guy was predicting a price target of 70 dollars for the year. It's at 60 now. The analyst among other places I've read said MU has a history of underwhelming during earnings, and I see no sign there is good news that isn't already priced in, so I'm not doing anything special for earnings besides holding the few shares I already have.
Presented without comment; chart by David Wilson of Bloomberg radio.
@Why Tea I am waiting for the short rates to yield more than the long rate (yield curve inversion). Then we will know a recession is on the horizon
^^^
Based Zyzz
buy the Facebook dip
@Patrick that's what I'm doing. I sold puts in order to benefit from high volatility
China is allegedly taking its first steps towards paying for imported crude oil in yuan instead of the U.S. dollar
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-yuan-exclusive/exclusive-china-taking-first-steps-to-pay-for-oil-in-yuan-this-year-sources-idUSKBN1H51FA>
@Tanner - SC is that a good or bad thing for us?
It could mean demand for the USD drops, then the USD loses value and therefore prices of everything rise.
And could get other countries to start doing the same, further devaluing the dollar.
If you want to see US banks fail, this would be a step in that direction.
Hmm a declining US dollar is good for exporters. Not sure how it would effect equities in dollar terms. @Zyzz @SamanthaM thoughts?
China has been decreasing is supply of USD. Apparently japan is the biggest holder of USD. I’m not quite too sure how a decline dollar impacts the economy. It’s good for exporters and it’s good for international travel to the US amongst other things. I will have to think about how else it impacts us
@ThisIsChris IMO, a major reason why the USD value has been relatively stable despite the large expansion of supply and despite the huge debt load is because the rest of the world uses USD to trade oil. If the rest of the world stops using USD for oil, the demand for the USD goes way down.
So in the event we do get involved in Syria, is there anything worth investing in?
@TIDE#0935 BA (Boeing) is a typical stock for military spending, and oil (through USO, a US Oil ETF). The overnight broad market index futures /ES (which is S&P 500) and /NQ (NASDAQ) are actually UP since the bombing started. As is /CL which is West Texas Crude Oil futures.
Yeah military and oil are the only things I can think of. Wonder if our <@&322715617138311171> have some advice to share
I hold an aerospace and defense mutual fund for things like this
fun
Wow, pretty smart on their part
That's a 5% jump in a few hours
Anyone thinking of buying a home should really hold off
@Zyzz thanks, makes sense. I've been looking (just looking) at places to buy in Manhattan and something I've noticed is that houses very often close for 30% or more off of the original asking price these days. Makes me think the appraisers are off their rockers again.
30% below asking price?
@Zyzz yeah, the initial asking price I mean
Wow interesting
Not all the time, sometimes it's like 20%
Can’t say the same for Florida. Most places go for above ask. Which underscores that real estate is local