Message from @Tanner - SC
Discord ID: 430107481738444812
:bigbrain:
^ for those who want to better understand our banking system/central banking/history of money/Rothschild family
@greenpond did you ever move into that TWTR Jan 19 put?
@here Anyone looking towards MU Earnings Report tomorrow?
^^Here is a popular analyst report for MU if you are unfamiliar. Download and open to read it
I read through this report and here are my 3 takeaways. I take what this analyst says about the technical things about computer memory devices at face value:
MU (Micron Technology Inc) has two main products right now DRAM and NAND accounting for 64% and 36% of its revenues, respectively. According to the analyst, DRAM is a highly competitive space with little room for growth, NAND is a highly competitive space but with high expectations of growing demand. Apparently computer memory generally has razor thin margins, so having either be the backbone of the company is not great, although NAND is better (according to the analyst) than DRAM. Takeaway #1. Growth in the NAND space vs DRAM space will be considered good.
MU is a small company specializing in one particular thing, so it usually needs to collaborate with other companies to create products that beat the competition. There are several small companies in the space. Samsung is a behemoth because it makes several (most?) different components. MU had a collaboration with Intel called IM technologies that was a good thing for MU, but because Intel recently launched its own memory manufacturing it is probably looking to directly compete with MU. Takeaway #2. MU needs to grow or form new collaborations.
MU does not have an "economic moat", meaning there's nothing that gives is a difficult-to-traverse competitive edge over its competitors. This makes it nearly impossible for MU to ever raise prices so that it might become more profitable. Takeaway #3. Any new initiatives into less competitive spaces will be good news for MU. Especially any market proven successes.
Now I've been watching MU for a few months now and it had been hovering around 40 for a while until the past month when it finally started to breakout up towards 60. The above analyst report was last updated March 9th but almost all the company details are from way before that. So I'm going to try to see if there was some news in the past month that showed MU hitting one of the 3 takeaway points I listed above.
<@&322715617138311171> I would love feedback you can offer
Follow-up, I don't have a thesis yet on direction of movement, but the weekly options expiring friday are priced for a one standard deviation move of 4.265 i.e. +/- 7% That seems reasonable to me based on recent price movements so I'm not going to try direction neutral strategies like selling a straddle.
In the end I'm not taking action with respect to MU's earnings. I found some news about a new product line that probably explains their 50% increase in the past month. But so I have a feeling most good news is priced in. I read another analyst report, this time by credit suisse. The guy was predicting a price target of 70 dollars for the year. It's at 60 now. The analyst among other places I've read said MU has a history of underwhelming during earnings, and I see no sign there is good news that isn't already priced in, so I'm not doing anything special for earnings besides holding the few shares I already have.
Presented without comment; chart by David Wilson of Bloomberg radio.
@Why Tea I am waiting for the short rates to yield more than the long rate (yield curve inversion). Then we will know a recession is on the horizon
^^^
Based Zyzz
buy the Facebook dip
@Patrick that's what I'm doing. I sold puts in order to benefit from high volatility
China is allegedly taking its first steps towards paying for imported crude oil in yuan instead of the U.S. dollar
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-yuan-exclusive/exclusive-china-taking-first-steps-to-pay-for-oil-in-yuan-this-year-sources-idUSKBN1H51FA>
@Tanner - SC is that a good or bad thing for us?
It could mean demand for the USD drops, then the USD loses value and therefore prices of everything rise.
And could get other countries to start doing the same, further devaluing the dollar.
If you want to see US banks fail, this would be a step in that direction.
Hmm a declining US dollar is good for exporters. Not sure how it would effect equities in dollar terms. @Zyzz @SamanthaM thoughts?
China has been decreasing is supply of USD. Apparently japan is the biggest holder of USD. I’m not quite too sure how a decline dollar impacts the economy. It’s good for exporters and it’s good for international travel to the US amongst other things. I will have to think about how else it impacts us
@ThisIsChris IMO, a major reason why the USD value has been relatively stable despite the large expansion of supply and despite the huge debt load is because the rest of the world uses USD to trade oil. If the rest of the world stops using USD for oil, the demand for the USD goes way down.
realvision publications is quite good and so is TV
So in the event we do get involved in Syria, is there anything worth investing in?
@TIDE#0935 BA (Boeing) is a typical stock for military spending, and oil (through USO, a US Oil ETF). The overnight broad market index futures /ES (which is S&P 500) and /NQ (NASDAQ) are actually UP since the bombing started. As is /CL which is West Texas Crude Oil futures.
Yeah military and oil are the only things I can think of. Wonder if our <@&322715617138311171> have some advice to share
I hold an aerospace and defense mutual fund for things like this
fun
Wow, pretty smart on their part
