Message from @ThisIsChris

Discord ID: 426206903270506509


2018-03-10 18:16:03 UTC  

insider on 8chan

2018-03-10 18:16:28 UTC  

qanon.pub

2018-03-10 18:16:33 UTC  

Interesting, is he talking about Twitter?

2018-03-10 18:18:44 UTC  

But yeah just based on Twitter's historical volatility, 10 cents for the 13 strike Jan 19 doesn't seem bad. Maybe it's worth to get a handful and sit tight. Even if Twitter just goes down to the 20s in the next few months that put should increase quite a bit

2018-03-10 18:19:55 UTC  

Yeah read through his recent posts, it's fascinating

2018-03-10 18:21:00 UTC  

Cool thanks. true can sell the puts

2018-03-10 20:46:29 UTC  

Isn't Q Anon tinfoil shit?

2018-03-10 20:49:55 UTC  

@Jacob Sign me up for the loony bin then 😎

2018-03-13 16:26:58 UTC  

@greenpond the 15 strike leap you mentioned jumped 30% today

2018-03-13 16:29:29 UTC  

@ThisIsChris doh, still waiting for my funds to clear

2018-03-13 16:30:17 UTC  

the insiders know

2018-03-13 16:33:15 UTC  

Haha, I just put in a bid for 5 contracts at .19, we'll see if it takes

2018-03-13 16:34:23 UTC  

Yeah thing is TWTR has had no problem hanging out at 8 dollars in the recent past, so I wouldn't be surprised if this gets jumpy if there's another correction in the next few months

2018-03-14 20:26:07 UTC  

@everyone Tip: If you're trying to meet c-suite contacts, buy 1 share in the company and go to the annual meeting.

2018-03-15 01:55:56 UTC  

:bigbrain:

2018-03-18 15:11:47 UTC  

^ for those who want to better understand our banking system/central banking/history of money/Rothschild family

2018-03-20 21:09:23 UTC  

@greenpond did you ever move into that TWTR Jan 19 put?

2018-03-22 02:21:20 UTC  

@here Anyone looking towards MU Earnings Report tomorrow?

2018-03-22 02:33:04 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/426206649389416449/MU_MorningStar.png

2018-03-22 02:34:04 UTC  

^^Here is a popular analyst report for MU if you are unfamiliar. Download and open to read it

2018-03-22 02:51:25 UTC  

I read through this report and here are my 3 takeaways. I take what this analyst says about the technical things about computer memory devices at face value:

MU (Micron Technology Inc) has two main products right now DRAM and NAND accounting for 64% and 36% of its revenues, respectively. According to the analyst, DRAM is a highly competitive space with little room for growth, NAND is a highly competitive space but with high expectations of growing demand. Apparently computer memory generally has razor thin margins, so having either be the backbone of the company is not great, although NAND is better (according to the analyst) than DRAM. Takeaway #1. Growth in the NAND space vs DRAM space will be considered good.

MU is a small company specializing in one particular thing, so it usually needs to collaborate with other companies to create products that beat the competition. There are several small companies in the space. Samsung is a behemoth because it makes several (most?) different components. MU had a collaboration with Intel called IM technologies that was a good thing for MU, but because Intel recently launched its own memory manufacturing it is probably looking to directly compete with MU. Takeaway #2. MU needs to grow or form new collaborations.

MU does not have an "economic moat", meaning there's nothing that gives is a difficult-to-traverse competitive edge over its competitors. This makes it nearly impossible for MU to ever raise prices so that it might become more profitable. Takeaway #3. Any new initiatives into less competitive spaces will be good news for MU. Especially any market proven successes.

2018-03-22 02:54:31 UTC  

Now I've been watching MU for a few months now and it had been hovering around 40 for a while until the past month when it finally started to breakout up towards 60. The above analyst report was last updated March 9th but almost all the company details are from way before that. So I'm going to try to see if there was some news in the past month that showed MU hitting one of the 3 takeaway points I listed above.

2018-03-22 02:55:55 UTC  

<@&322715617138311171> I would love feedback you can offer

2018-03-22 04:23:57 UTC  

Follow-up, I don't have a thesis yet on direction of movement, but the weekly options expiring friday are priced for a one standard deviation move of 4.265 i.e. +/- 7% That seems reasonable to me based on recent price movements so I'm not going to try direction neutral strategies like selling a straddle.

2018-03-22 19:35:19 UTC  

In the end I'm not taking action with respect to MU's earnings. I found some news about a new product line that probably explains their 50% increase in the past month. But so I have a feeling most good news is priced in. I read another analyst report, this time by credit suisse. The guy was predicting a price target of 70 dollars for the year. It's at 60 now. The analyst among other places I've read said MU has a history of underwhelming during earnings, and I see no sign there is good news that isn't already priced in, so I'm not doing anything special for earnings besides holding the few shares I already have.

2018-03-23 17:28:50 UTC  

Presented without comment; chart by David Wilson of Bloomberg radio.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/426794465768898571/unknown.png

2018-03-23 17:44:27 UTC  

@Why Tea I am waiting for the short rates to yield more than the long rate (yield curve inversion). Then we will know a recession is on the horizon

2018-03-23 18:52:01 UTC  

^^^

2018-03-24 04:43:51 UTC  

Based Zyzz

2018-03-25 05:40:23 UTC  

buy the Facebook dip

2018-03-25 16:20:36 UTC  

@Patrick that's what I'm doing. I sold puts in order to benefit from high volatility

2018-03-26 04:07:48 UTC  

@Patrick /NQ roaring for a Sunday night. Good sign

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/427680041816555532/Screen_Shot_2018-03-26_at_12.06.50_AM.png

2018-04-01 20:53:34 UTC  

China is allegedly taking its first steps towards paying for imported crude oil in yuan instead of the U.S. dollar
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-oil-yuan-exclusive/exclusive-china-taking-first-steps-to-pay-for-oil-in-yuan-this-year-sources-idUSKBN1H51FA>

2018-04-01 21:37:28 UTC  

@Tanner - SC is that a good or bad thing for us?

2018-04-01 21:59:32 UTC  

It could mean demand for the USD drops, then the USD loses value and therefore prices of everything rise.

2018-04-01 22:00:13 UTC  

And could get other countries to start doing the same, further devaluing the dollar.

2018-04-01 22:01:22 UTC  

If you want to see US banks fail, this would be a step in that direction.

2018-04-01 22:28:36 UTC  

Hmm a declining US dollar is good for exporters. Not sure how it would effect equities in dollar terms. @Zyzz @SamanthaM thoughts?

2018-04-01 23:10:06 UTC  

China has been decreasing is supply of USD. Apparently japan is the biggest holder of USD. I’m not quite too sure how a decline dollar impacts the economy. It’s good for exporters and it’s good for international travel to the US amongst other things. I will have to think about how else it impacts us