Message from @ophiuchus

Discord ID: 510595594377494558


2018-11-06 15:21:58 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/509386973652320256/image0.png

2018-11-06 16:58:46 UTC  

@Tanner - SC yeah there's a few bets I'm maxed out on for an easy 12% return, like "will Rs hold senate"

2018-11-07 19:37:17 UTC  

@Tanner - SC how did you do? I walked away with a good return

2018-11-07 21:28:32 UTC  

I made almost $300

2018-11-07 21:29:02 UTC  

Just remember, guys. Predictit.com isn't investing. It's gambling

2018-11-07 21:30:19 UTC  

eh

2018-11-07 21:30:25 UTC  

it's not really gambling either

2018-11-07 21:30:32 UTC  

because gambling is chance

2018-11-07 21:30:45 UTC  

this isn't so much chance as it is based on how well you know your stuff

2018-11-07 21:30:54 UTC  

that being said, it's still risky, and you shouldn't get over confident

2018-11-07 21:37:03 UTC  

@ThisIsChris I didn’t put in any money this time. I was not as confident as 2016.

2018-11-07 21:38:14 UTC  

You could say PredictIt is speculation, which is still a form of investing. Not quite the same as gambling.

2018-11-07 21:47:30 UTC  

<https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/31/5362> Legally it's considered a form of sports betting, which is the staking of a wager on the outcome of a certain event. What's interesting about PredictIt is that you can sell your stake to someone else before the outcome of the event is known.

2018-11-07 21:50:51 UTC  

PredictIt is not investing because you can't capture anything that's produced along the way. (Although the public has access to the information you produce as someone willing to put their foot forward on a price.) This is different from shares of stock because that is ownership of a company which produces things and whose value increases in a non-zero sum way. But many common speculations are zero-sum such as stock options.

2018-11-07 21:52:09 UTC  

@John O - nice job with the wins, what did you bet on?

2018-11-07 21:57:58 UTC  

DeSantis winning Florida and Dems taking the House. I won big in 2016, so I've just been reinventing my winnings ever since then

2018-11-07 23:18:24 UTC  
2018-11-07 23:18:53 UTC  

I didn't know anything about that race so I didn't touch it.

2018-11-07 23:19:19 UTC  

I had Dems <= 230 seats in house, and Rs 53-55 in senate

2018-11-09 23:24:36 UTC  

How much did you score in 2016

2018-11-10 02:04:40 UTC  

@ophiuchus 3k, the odds being offered back then were way longer than they should have been

2018-11-10 03:11:06 UTC  

People often bet on what they want to happen instead of what will happen. The odds are seldom correct

2018-11-10 03:22:49 UTC  

@John O - I was telling a friend about this, if you're going to bet based on emotion it would make more sense on things you don't want to happen, so in case they do happen then at least you get some money out of it. That idealism set aside, yes a lot of bets are often biased towards democrats there, although I've noticed a recent cohort of magapedes has shown up so nowadays I don't know what to think.

2018-11-10 05:09:19 UTC  

That's what's great about betting

2018-11-10 05:09:56 UTC  

As long as you bet based on what will realistically happen, you can take a lot of money away from people who bet based on what they want to happen

2018-11-10 05:10:08 UTC  

They probably skew the odds a lot

2018-11-10 06:19:02 UTC  

i've really only lost money on predictit... usually the rules are broken and i don't get the payout due to disqualification. i tend to buy sub 10c rolls though, so maybe one will pay off eventually 😛

2018-11-14 05:15:35 UTC  

@ophiuchus VIX went down but VXX went up. Thoughts?

2018-11-14 21:41:13 UTC  

VXX is daily futures for VIX, so not the same

2018-11-15 00:47:28 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352760194775777282/512428387189391360/20181114_194617.jpg

2018-11-15 01:11:31 UTC  

@John O - 855-MAKE-10K got it

2018-11-15 01:11:45 UTC  

seems legit

2018-11-15 01:11:45 UTC  

lol I guess they paid a lot for the vanity number

2018-11-15 01:12:02 UTC  

But you better not have any homes of a raise, or they'll have to get a new number

2018-11-15 01:26:09 UTC  

I just got off the phone with them. I bought their Get Started in Sales package. Will report back with results

2018-11-15 23:46:39 UTC  

NVDA 17% down on earnings report

2018-11-16 03:29:35 UTC  

@ThisIsChris is it partially due to their top of the line model catching on fire and the resulting recall?

2018-11-16 04:32:15 UTC  

@Tanner - SC haha not that I heard of, more likely because they missed revenue expectations by 60 million and had been priced at a high multiple

2018-11-16 23:06:39 UTC  

@ThisIsChris Excess inventory from overproduction when crypto demand died.
> Nvidia announced its third quarter financial results, but a worrying glut of graphics cards in the channel, which Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang chalked up to a "Crypto hangover," impacted overall earnings and guidance. The news sent the company's stock plummeting 18% in after-hours trading. Nvidia expects the oversupply to require "one to two" quarters to recede.
<https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-cryptocurrency-earnings-1060-2060,38083.html>

2018-11-21 17:03:22 UTC  

Gasoline is cheap!