@ThisIsChris Nothing in particular, I'm not as wise as I should be here. hopefully the market heads up again from this recent downtrend

There’s a lot of reasons not to trade but if you want some pointers let me know, I’ve been in for quite a while but I’m typically risk off or focused on commodities

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20181101-fire-the-movement-to-live-frugally-and-retire-decades-early

pretty, innit

So satisfying

@Deleted User did you buy?

Yeah I'm in it

@Deleted User great job!

https://old.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/9uendp/the_cfp_board_is_expanding_fiduciary_duty_for/

>Beginning in October 2019, all Certified Financial Planners will be required to act in the best interests of their clients at all times when providing financial advice. While many CFPs already operate this way, CFPs are currently only required to act as a fiduciary when helping clients with financial planning.

<https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms>

@Tanner - SC yeah there's a few bets I'm maxed out on for an easy 12% return, like "will Rs hold senate"

@Tanner - SC how did you do? I walked away with a good return

I made almost $300

Just remember, guys. Predictit.com isn't investing. It's gambling

eh

it's not really gambling either

because gambling is chance

this isn't so much chance as it is based on how well you know your stuff

that being said, it's still risky, and you shouldn't get over confident

@ThisIsChris I didn’t put in any money this time. I was not as confident as 2016.

You could say PredictIt is speculation, which is still a form of investing. Not quite the same as gambling.

<https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/31/5362> Legally it's considered a form of sports betting, which is the staking of a wager on the outcome of a certain event. What's interesting about PredictIt is that you can sell your stake to someone else before the outcome of the event is known.

PredictIt is not investing because you can't capture anything that's produced along the way. (Although the public has access to the information you produce as someone willing to put their foot forward on a price.) This is different from shares of stock because that is ownership of a company which produces things and whose value increases in a non-zero sum way. But many common speculations are zero-sum such as stock options.

@John O - nice job with the wins, what did you bet on?

DeSantis winning Florida and Dems taking the House. I won big in 2016, so I've just been reinventing my winnings ever since then

@John O - nice

I didn't know anything about that race so I didn't touch it.

I had Dems <= 230 seats in house, and Rs 53-55 in senate

How much did you score in 2016

@ophiuchus 3k, the odds being offered back then were way longer than they should have been

People often bet on what they want to happen instead of what will happen. The odds are seldom correct

@John O - I was telling a friend about this, if you're going to bet based on emotion it would make more sense on things you don't want to happen, so in case they do happen then at least you get some money out of it. That idealism set aside, yes a lot of bets are often biased towards democrats there, although I've noticed a recent cohort of magapedes has shown up so nowadays I don't know what to think.

That's what's great about betting

As long as you bet based on what will realistically happen, you can take a lot of money away from people who bet based on what they want to happen

They probably skew the odds a lot

i've really only lost money on predictit... usually the rules are broken and i don't get the payout due to disqualification. i tend to buy sub 10c rolls though, so maybe one will pay off eventually 😛

@ophiuchus VIX went down but VXX went up. Thoughts?