Message from @mattforney

Discord ID: 633049560872255509


2019-10-13 21:05:49 UTC  

when I went to Warsaw for my friend's wedding in April, the Uber driver who took me to the Warsaw airport was Georgian

2019-10-13 21:06:19 UTC  

same thing will likely happen if/when Armenia gets visa-free access

2019-10-13 21:06:39 UTC  

They go then the way of Bosnia

2019-10-13 21:06:51 UTC  

Poland has depleted Ukraine's stock of guest-workers and they need more

2019-10-13 21:07:56 UTC  

yeah the ex-FSU states outside of Russia, Belarus, and the Baltics are basically going to get worse

2019-10-13 21:08:04 UTC  

Brain drain is the fertile grounds for future migration waves

2019-10-13 21:08:06 UTC  

they're losing human capital to the E.U. and Russia

2019-10-13 21:08:17 UTC  

and they're also flashpoints for CIA fuck-fuck games

2019-10-13 21:08:35 UTC  

Georgia will probably have some kind of color revolution shenanigans next year

2019-10-13 21:09:07 UTC  

there was an attempted uprising over the summer when the government declined to give extra police protection to the pride parade and they had to cancel

2019-10-13 21:09:46 UTC  

also, during an international conference of politicians from Orthodox countries, one of the Russian invitees gave a speech from the speaker's chair at the Georgian parliament

2019-10-13 21:09:55 UTC  

that ignited a week of tantrums from the opposition

2019-10-13 21:10:23 UTC  

the incumbent party are a bunch of cowards, despite basically being in the same position as Fidesz, having near total control over the government and country

2019-10-13 21:10:36 UTC  

in response to the protests, they changed the electoral law to remove the threshold

2019-10-13 21:11:06 UTC  

since they're only polling at about 20 percent that means five million parties will get seats in the parliamentary election next year

2019-10-13 21:11:55 UTC  

And what would come after a color revolution?

2019-10-13 21:12:16 UTC  

Liberal govt and mandatory poopdick?

2019-10-13 21:12:17 UTC  

the stridently pro-U.S. UNM comes to power

2019-10-13 21:12:28 UTC  

they're pro-gay rights and stooges for the deep state

2019-10-13 21:12:44 UTC  

they're Saakashvili's old party, he technically still leads them from exile

2019-10-13 21:12:56 UTC  

they'll take a more belligerent stand on Russia

2019-10-13 21:13:21 UTC  

keep in mind that the existing government is pretty pro-U.S. as it is; they didn't make any major changes after Saakashvili got bounced out of power

2019-10-13 21:13:35 UTC  

they were also one of the first countries to recognize Guaido as Venezuela's president

2019-10-13 21:13:52 UTC  

but they've also tried to steer a moderate course in thawing things with Russia

2019-10-13 21:14:01 UTC  

the UNM will be far more belligerent

2019-10-13 21:15:16 UTC  

I see, it's all about its value as a piece vs Russia

2019-10-13 21:15:56 UTC  

Their biggest problem though is the siren song of "western lifestyle "

2019-10-13 21:16:02 UTC  

yeah the incumbent party is basically trying to acknowledge reality

2019-10-13 21:16:16 UTC  

Russia is Georgia's largest trading partner, it's biggest source of tourists

2019-10-13 21:16:32 UTC  

Putin's flight ban was a massive blow to the economy and the government will get blamed for the lari's collapse

2019-10-13 21:17:17 UTC  

WizzAir won't keep them afloat, huh?

2019-10-13 21:17:55 UTC  

nah there's no way that Georgia can make up the difference with European and American tourism

2019-10-13 21:18:03 UTC  

Georgia is cheap but it's also far out of the way

2019-10-13 21:18:08 UTC  

not really on anyone's radar

2019-10-13 21:18:54 UTC  

It is really just a small place up in the hills next to Russia

2019-10-13 21:19:03 UTC  

Armenia is also trying to eat their lunch with similar anti-corruption reforms

2019-10-13 21:19:22 UTC  

streamlining the bureaucracy, getting rid of pointless laws

2019-10-13 21:19:43 UTC  

so Georgia's selling point of being a good place to do business will also recede

2019-10-13 21:20:44 UTC  

So their future is pretty much being something like Bosnia?

2019-10-13 21:20:45 UTC  

my estimation is that Georgian Dream (the incumbent party) will remain the largest party but all the opposition parties they fucked over in the past decade will gang up on them in a coalition

2019-10-13 21:20:58 UTC  

Bosnia without the ethnic conflict I guess