Message from @Josh M. -OH

Discord ID: 516392272066117657


2018-11-25 23:08:22 UTC  

For sure, but there's a significant number of countries that are wary of the risk of open conflict with Russia, including some whose long-term economic strategies are entwined with Russian economic interests, the most prominent being Germany.

2018-11-25 23:09:14 UTC  

Germany wouldn’t hesitate to go against Russia tho, especially if merkel thinks they can depose Putin and put some globohomo shill there in his place

2018-11-25 23:09:32 UTC  

Still get the pipeline and no Putin

2018-11-25 23:09:47 UTC  

Ukraine can still cry to NATO and they'll ask Russia to behave themselves.

2018-11-25 23:09:48 UTC  

Merkel will be out before Putin, and she's thirsty for that Nord Stream 2 gas.

2018-11-25 23:10:39 UTC  

Merkel would be hesitant if she isn't sure USA will support. They won't be the aggressor

2018-11-25 23:10:50 UTC  

Russia can cut off the natural gas to Europe and they will freeze this coming winter and start to really miss nuclear energy, plus I doubt if we can sanction Russia anymore than we already do

2018-11-25 23:11:39 UTC  

@Josh M. -OH That, too, but we can definitely count on the "deep state" (or whatever other term you want to attribute to it) to try to force the President's hand.

2018-11-25 23:12:20 UTC  

@TylerHess Russia could, but going ham in that way would only give more hawkish European leaders a pretext for forcibly diverting their gas orders from the Russia to the U.S.

2018-11-25 23:12:52 UTC  

Russia isn't doing much to prove any neocons wrong. They're loving Russia's instigating.

2018-11-25 23:13:12 UTC  

NATO and co will probably make some noise but do nothing substantial besides condemnation, unless they send more hardware to Ukraine or up our own Artic or Black Sea patrols. Maybe do a provocative joint training exercise which in all honesty could risk providing Russia with data on our capabilities which would outweigh any intimidation factor.

2018-11-25 23:13:12 UTC  

Without natural gas exports, the Russian economy collapses. Without natural gas imports from Russia, many EU countries would suffer greatly. The advantage goes to Russia here because Putin is not accountable to voters and European leaders are

2018-11-25 23:14:11 UTC  

NATO will warn Russia not to crush Ukraine, but it won't go to war over Crimea

2018-11-25 23:15:18 UTC  

EU is looking for an excuse. Brits too obviously and neocons in US

2018-11-25 23:15:28 UTC  

Chomping at the bit for Russia.

2018-11-25 23:15:47 UTC  

@TMatthews I generally agree, but Putin *is* responsible to Russians, though not directly in the sense of the polls. Instead, like a monarch, he simply has to make sure that there's never a critical mass of people willing to take to the streets, whereas other European leaders have to deal with less latency on their ends (the possibility of being voted out).

2018-11-25 23:16:49 UTC  

Although as long as Russia doesn't start lethal activities they're pretty safe to do whatever. Not sure what they hope to gain though.

2018-11-25 23:17:51 UTC  

They can't do much which is part of their hysteria. Thats why they've taken their anger out on client states of Russia like Syria and Iran.

2018-11-25 23:18:02 UTC  

Defcon hasn’t changed.

2018-11-25 23:18:31 UTC  

@TylerHessthey want to get their pipeline down there and get a hand in the Mideast. They need friends.

2018-11-25 23:18:39 UTC  

Syria as well

2018-11-25 23:18:56 UTC  

@Josh M. -OH They're not trying to gain anything in this situation. They have every incentive to avoid escalation. However, the Ukrainians, and particularly Poroshenko himself, have numerous incentives to escalate, as it will force the U.S. and E.U. to step up their intervention, and possibly provide the latter with a pretext to invoke emergency powers, and delay the elections (which he's unambiguously poised to lose).

2018-11-25 23:19:13 UTC  

If the French are rioting over gas prices, any disruption to natural gas would cause synergistic effects

2018-11-25 23:19:16 UTC  

my belly is practicing for the big day

2018-11-25 23:19:33 UTC  

That's why I'm saying it makes no sense. Unnecessary escalation by Russians.

2018-11-25 23:19:47 UTC  

Taking about eating or having a baby? @Isabella Locke-MT

2018-11-25 23:20:02 UTC  

braxton hicks contractions

2018-11-25 23:20:53 UTC  

@Josh M. -OH The Russians aren't escalating; they're maintaining the post-02/22/2014 status quo. It's the Ukrainians who are escalating by attempting to move naval vessels from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait (which Russia claims as its territorial waters).

2018-11-25 23:22:58 UTC  

...not to mention that Russia just spent $3.7 billion building a bridge from the Crimea to the Russian mainland.

2018-11-25 23:23:06 UTC  

@Freiheit - CA She's practicing for the local hot dog eating competition where she will represent IE.

2018-11-25 23:23:16 UTC  

Based

2018-11-25 23:23:29 UTC  

@Bjorn - MDhavent they been moving vessels through for a while? Did they ever stop?

2018-11-25 23:23:31 UTC  

Good luck @Isabella Locke-MT The future of Evropans lies in your hands (stomach)

2018-11-25 23:23:59 UTC  

Teach your baby to eat hot dogs so it can help.

2018-11-25 23:24:13 UTC  

Before you give birth.

2018-11-25 23:24:20 UTC  

I know we're all keto gang here, but for your loved ones: boycott palm oil
https://youtu.be/2_7Cwlo8udQ

2018-11-25 23:24:38 UTC  

@Josh M. -OH Russia has an a natural incentive to allow Ukrainian vessels to pass from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea, as that makes them less of a threat to Russian shipping and the Kerch Strait Bridge, but not so much in the case of the latter.

2018-11-25 23:25:20 UTC  

Russia might have done it to imply that they are willing to do other more drastic things even if they really arent or are hesitant, much as Trump did with his unnecessary and asinine bombing of Syria in order to make his threats towards North Korea more credible, essentially trading a temporary escalation of tensions for a long term de-escalation assuming that WW3 doesn't result along the way.

2018-11-25 23:25:36 UTC  

They had a temporary off limits area that Ukraine violated.

2018-11-25 23:26:07 UTC  

@TylerHess That's possible.