Message from @Marini

Discord ID: 484098835581370401


2018-08-28 18:50:55 UTC  

Well first, your recommendation has like 0% chance of winning I'd never heard of her and most of the podcasts I listen to are local

2018-08-28 18:51:12 UTC  

No signs either

2018-08-28 18:55:57 UTC  

As for why Miller was my recommendation, Miller or Sturgill would do fine, Miller would be more likely to beat Murphy

2018-08-28 18:58:26 UTC  

I can give specifics once I'm home

2018-08-28 19:22:48 UTC  

@Nuke Thanks for the list. Personally Dave Cummings for FL-18 and Eddison Walters for FL-22 seem like better choices

2018-08-28 19:28:23 UTC  

Also you should include Matt Gaetz (FL-1)

2018-08-28 19:29:07 UTC  

He included endorsements just for areas considered competitive, FL-1 is pretty safe

2018-08-28 20:28:32 UTC  

@Diethard @Marini I didn't include anyone in uncontested or extremely uncompetitive primaries.

2018-08-28 20:29:22 UTC  

Vennia was chosen for the fact she explicitly opposes abortion and illegal immigration on her website (even though she supports DACA)

2018-08-28 20:31:08 UTC  

As for Eddison Walters...

2018-08-28 20:31:08 UTC  

End Illegal Immigration: Support President Trump's agenda to secure the boarder and end illegal emigration

2018-08-28 20:31:13 UTC  

this dude has a really shitty website

2018-08-28 20:31:38 UTC  

I think the typos that are here for primary day might be enough to kill his campaign.

2018-08-28 20:33:17 UTC  

As for Dave Cummings...

2018-08-28 20:33:23 UTC  

Actually, he's better than Mast.

2018-08-28 20:34:55 UTC  

Here are our US House endorsements in <@&414473793499693066>:
FL-3: Ted Yoho
FL-6: Fred Costollo
FL-7: Vennia Francois
FL-13: Brad Sostack
FL-15: Ross Spano
FL-17: Julio Gonzalez and Greg Steube are both great candidates.
FL-18: Dave Cummings
FL-22: Javier Manjarres (effectively by default)
FL-23: Carla Spalding
FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (His opponent is even worse than him.)
FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (also, if you want, Maria Peiro is actually a good candidate, just not as good on the website)

2018-08-28 20:35:11 UTC  

C'mon with the spam tagging

2018-08-28 20:35:14 UTC  

Sorry.

2018-08-28 20:35:16 UTC  

You already posted it

2018-08-28 20:35:23 UTC  

It's been corrected though.

2018-08-28 20:35:56 UTC  

What was the problem?

2018-08-28 20:36:40 UTC  

Not seeing a difference

2018-08-28 20:38:27 UTC  

I put in a wrong name and replaced it.
FL-3: Ted Yoho
FL-6: Fred Costollo
FL-7: Vennia Francois
FL-13: Brad Sostack
FL-15: Ross Spano
FL-17: Julio Gonzalez and Greg Steube are both great candidates.
FL-18: Dave Cummings
FL-22: Javier Manjarres (effectively by default)
FL-23: Carla Spalding
FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (His opponent is even worse than him.)
FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (also, if you want, Maria Peiro is actually a good candidate, just not as good on the website)

2018-08-28 20:38:33 UTC  

(reposting so it doesn't get buried)

2018-08-29 00:29:12 UTC  

Well at least DeSantis won

2018-08-29 00:30:33 UTC  

Agriculture Commissioner may go to the democrats this year since the weed chick one

2018-08-29 03:37:41 UTC  

Ew

2018-08-29 03:39:52 UTC  

Also, out of 10-11 candidates we endorsed, only ~4-5 won, and most of them were either lesser-of-two-evil moderates or people in fairly uncompetitive races.

2018-08-29 04:14:05 UTC  

"People seem to forget that Obama won Florida twice.

I rate the race "likely R" but this can change. Two (2) black Democrats on the ticket (Sean Shaw is the AG candidate) is a wild card, but it MIGHT drive minority turnout through the roof in an off-year election. It's likely R right now because of Gillum's lesser name recognition and the poor condition of the FL Democratic Party as a whole."

2018-08-29 04:14:27 UTC  

"Gillum and DeSantis were widely out raised and comparitively unsupported by state politicians, newspapers, and interest groups than their opponents. It looks like both races were primarly decided by major national endorsements.

I wonder if that will continue to the general election. This would seem to set up a good proxy campaign for Trump vs Bernie."

2018-08-29 04:14:32 UTC  

"This race is still a tossup. Anybody that says otherwise has a short term memory because, while Gillum winning was a shock, DeSantis has been the presumptive nominee for a while and he's still terrible."

2018-08-29 04:15:32 UTC  

"Pure Toss up of course. Crist was an even more flawed candidate than Gillum was and he only lost by 1 in a GOP wave year, and the electorate looks like it is going to be moderately better for the Democrats. No idea why everyone is tearing their hair out here."

2018-08-29 04:15:58 UTC  

"Gillum needs to get the Obama network to kick in some fundraising now. But I don't see why he cannot beat DeSantis, this is not Rubio who has wider appeal. The polls also underestimated young people turnout badly. Something tells me the ones with Trump at 48% approval here are off by about 5% too. "

2018-08-29 04:16:10 UTC  

"
Not to mention, the recent court ruling allowing early voting sites on college campuses which were banned in the past.

University of Florida (Gainesville), Florida State / Florida A&M (Tallahassee) , University of South Florida (Tampa), and University of Central Florida (Orlando) will all have on campus early voting precincts. This will help increase turnout for young people and more so if they're fired up. "

2018-08-29 04:16:33 UTC  

"Establishment Republicans might've held their noses for an Establishment Democrat up against a polarizing GOP nominee and might've paid more attention to other races, but not with a BernieBro. It's now more likely that you see GOP straight-ticket voting."

2018-08-29 04:18:06 UTC  

Andrew Gillum can win the Governorship of Florida due to the TRAYVON MARTIN outcry, with the acquittal of Zimmerman which brought a national outrage. The same outrage, that cried out when Trump got elected in Nov 2016

2018-08-29 04:18:54 UTC  

"Gillum may not be personally implicated in the FBI investigation as of now, but the optics are bad, and that's all that matters. Remember, Hillary FELL in the polls after she was exonerated."

2018-08-29 04:20:26 UTC  

"Yeah we should have nominated a white moderate. They do really well. Just ask P murphy, Charlie Crist, Alex Sink, and Hillary C. Give lefties a chance. besides, DeSantis is a right wing wackjob. He's no A list candidate either. Gillum can definitely win. "

2018-08-29 05:10:15 UTC  

@Nuke Yeah FL-22 was a weird race.
It's too bad with Brian Mast. He is very very cuckservative, anyone else would have been a better choice, but the vote was not only split two ways, neither of the other two could run a decent campaign
Mast wants to ban semi-autos