Message from @zakattack04

Discord ID: 422827340289277962


2018-03-12 17:50:40 UTC  
2018-03-12 17:51:30 UTC  

"If the rest of the 2016 Clinton-Trump modeling performance stayed the same and if, for example, Lamb was able to bring out his own wave of Democratic voters and increase the number of votes in the most heavily Democratic precincts so those areas made up 10 percentage points more of total vote as compared to in 2016, that still would only get him within 15 percent of Republican Rick Saccone in the special election."

2018-03-12 17:52:22 UTC  

"Likewise, if Lamb outperformed Clinton in the most heavily Democratic areas and most Republican areas, and, for the purposes of debate, took 72 percent of the vote in the bluest areas where Clinton only took 56 percent and 41 percent in the reddest areas where Clinton only took 26 percent, that would still only get Lamb within nine points."

2018-03-12 17:56:08 UTC  

It's possible for Saccone to pull off a win,

2018-03-12 17:56:25 UTC  

But only if turnout is low

2018-03-12 17:56:56 UTC  

even then, he would only win by 1-3 points

2018-03-12 17:57:04 UTC  

I don't know about this. According to this it's going to be pretty difficult

2018-03-12 17:57:12 UTC  

"One hypothetical model that puts Lamb just over 50 percent, includes, for example, him increasing the percentage of the vote that comes from the bluest areas by nine points, winning four percent more of the vote than Clinton did in those bluest areas, breaking even with Saccone in areas in the district Trump won by 21 points and, in the reddest areas were Trump won by 46 percent, only losing to Saccone by about 15."

2018-03-12 17:57:38 UTC  

Screencap, Saccone loses

2018-03-12 17:59:28 UTC  

2018-03-12 17:59:30 UTC  

I thought he would before but I am starting to think he won't. Not since Trump came. Also our districts economy has really picked up a lot since 2016. We can't hire enough people at work (Near the District) because so many places around South West Pa are looking

2018-03-12 18:21:14 UTC  

How do you lose a district Trump won by 20 points lol

2018-03-12 18:21:44 UTC  

The GOP, our genius Titan of politics

2018-03-12 18:43:01 UTC  

I don't know what to say, the rally just may put him over the edge, there's a lot of variables.

2018-03-12 18:43:17 UTC  

We're fucking doomed...

2018-03-12 18:43:36 UTC  

I guess the Red Storm is more of a meme than the blue wave lol.

2018-03-12 18:44:33 UTC  

I've been saying that for forever

2018-03-12 18:44:34 UTC  

There's really only one poll that actually matters

2018-03-12 18:44:49 UTC  

Saccones a pretty shitty candidate so that is probaly most of it. Especially since Lamb is really good candidate

2018-03-12 18:44:52 UTC  

There will be no red storm

2018-03-12 18:44:53 UTC  

Yeah but button mash you're a defeatist lol

2018-03-12 18:45:24 UTC  

That's the election. We'll see.

2018-03-12 18:45:28 UTC  

Who could buy into the "centrist democrat" meme

2018-03-12 18:45:33 UTC  

Like really what the fuck

2018-03-12 18:45:55 UTC  

Because people are retards especially women and vote for who they like instead of policy

2018-03-12 18:45:58 UTC  

Autocorrect is activating my almonds rn lol

2018-03-12 18:46:15 UTC  

That is how Manchin has West Virginia

2018-03-12 18:46:33 UTC  

Tomorrow I want to explain the significance of this in voice chat

2018-03-12 18:46:46 UTC  

When do the polls close?

2018-03-12 18:47:00 UTC  

A loss here has really bad implications

2018-03-12 18:47:01 UTC  

I know the district and if they vote Lamb in they will regret it

2018-03-12 18:47:18 UTC  

is it 8:00 EST?

2018-03-12 18:47:31 UTC  

I just woke up

2018-03-12 18:47:41 UTC  

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 what's the sample size for that poll

2018-03-12 18:47:42 UTC  

Saccone will lose

2018-03-12 18:47:44 UTC  

Bad news NYC lol

2018-03-12 18:47:54 UTC  

It's 3 in the afternoon.......

2018-03-12 18:48:36 UTC  

Sample size is like 375 I think. Is that good?

2018-03-12 18:49:35 UTC  

@Den yeah I had a pretty fun night

2018-03-12 18:49:50 UTC  

375? Wtf

2018-03-12 18:50:04 UTC  

Are you sure they didn't oversample