Is one of the Darrel Issa

These are districts held by Republican congressmen that Clinton won in

California has no anti voter fraud measures

I'm surprised there are any GOP incumbents at all

These are districts held by Democrats that Trump won in

I suspect that the "3 million voters margin" can be entirely attributed to voter fraud in Cali

thanks

The best oppurtunity for Republicans in the house race is Minnesota,

can you post those images in the current general btw

so it is crucial that all Minnesotans are out voting on November

I'm the OP so I can't bump the thread

yeah, how likely do you think the GOP can win both senate seats in Minnesota

Trump would have won it were it not for McMullin

(and Gary Johnson, though he siphoned some votes from Hillary)

I'd say there's about a 40-45% chance of winning the special election in Minnesota

If Michelle Bachmann runs, it'd boost the odds

Is Joe Arpaio running for Senate in Arizona? Will Arizona become blue or stay red?

He is, he won't win the primaries

McSally is most likely

That's only if the majority of the people are evangelicals in Minnesota. I don't see how any liberal or maybe any moderate conservative would vote Bachmann

But in general, the midterms are probably going to be a Red Wave or just a stalemate. IDK how a Blue Wave might happen

expect a blue wave in some parts of the country

my biases are skewed as a former leftist...but Bachmann seems to appeal only to religious conservatives. She was kind of a joke in 2012, but then again so was Trump

^

Trump's got a problem with white college-educated suburban voters (AKA Soccer Moms)

oh yeah

however, most GOP candidates in congress won't

the left is trying to tout this as a referendum against Trump

I think it's going to be far more about candidate vs candidate, and somewhat about party vs party

not true,

to be fair,

all midterm elections are treated as a referendum of the sitting president and the party in power

remember in 2014?

"Soccer moms" are prevalent in the Midwest though, so I doubt its about who the people are more than the party they are currently in

Obama and his party got shlonged across the country

I think you could make the argument that the USA is still generally center-right, and that 2006 was an anomaly

neverTrumpers will still reliably vote for the GOP candidates in their district

Well, there was a resurgence of Tea Partiers at that time. Idk if there is going to be a progressive/populist resurgence this year

Maybe there is, IDK

and Trump democrats in the rust belt can be influenced to vote against Democrat candidates

Not if the Democrats are moderate Democrats though. Donnelly for instance is probably a more right-wing Democrat. Same with Manchin and Heitkamp