what is the sauce btw

i collaborated the data myself

ah ok

it's probably better than most polls

the betting percentages had to come from somewhere though, right?

https://electionbettingodds.com/

+3.6% in the last week

so that's good

good night guys

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAXo1Y7AK_I

should we get Bradly Manning the nomination just to fuck up the Dems chances in that election?

yeah

probably would be the best chance of getting that seat in a state that is extremely blue

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156791187#p156794196

lol at this post

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156832254

new thread goys

keep this bumped

@FLanon @Nuke @skankd @TrippyTurtle

kk

half tempted to write a quick site for this stuff, like that guy did with the tax calculator

>tfw I don't think that Chelsea Manning isn't necessarily a bad choice for the US Senate

I think* whelp

I saw an article stating that some of the more centrist dem are bashing it/her

She will prob lose real hard is she runs

Yeah. Most of the Democratic establishment is shilling against her hard.

Even if she wins or loses, as long as she exposes the corrupt elite agenda of the surveillance state, the war crimes committed by the US, etc. I'd say its a win

But realistically speaking, she's going to probably lose to Cardin anyways

It's hard to say, especially with social justice and girl power on every leftie's tongue. Though, its hard to say what the population of Leftist millenial sjw types is in Maryland.

So I've researched and found some projections for the house that are fairly whitepilling

Nice

thanks for the good work

they're from fairvote, a pretty accurate firm from what I've found

http://www.fairvote.org/fairvote_s_projections_for_u_s_house_elections_in_2018

basically, the high confidence projections they have (which from past analyses they've accurately predicted 99.7% of, so it's extremely likely they'll get all of them right bar one or two at most) has 205 R seats and 163 D seats

this gives a field of about 63 seats in competition

218 seats are needed to have a majority, meaning Rs would need to grab at least 13 seats out of the 63 in play in order to keep the house

obviously we want much more than this for legislative purposes, but this effectively prevents any impeachment attempts

Now, if there's a 2006-esque "blue wave" with a similar makeup to that year, w/ 54% dems and 46% Rs, that still gives Rs a majority of 226 seats, at least according to FairVote

this is about 52% of the House of Representatives which would be Republican, or to give a frame of reference, about the same margin that we had in the senate before Moore's loss

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/156832254