Message from @Atkins

Discord ID: 441936357334581248


2018-05-04 12:10:01 UTC  

not sure how credible it is... it was from a russian source

2018-05-04 12:10:17 UTC  

but if we see one in the near future...

2018-05-04 12:11:37 UTC  

Quite possible. SAA failed to make any headway after they crossed near there, and their pontoon bridge was destroyed. They might be preparing to gas the SDF (since their conventional advance failed), and then claim the SDF gassed themselves as a false flag.

2018-05-04 12:11:53 UTC  

Maskirovka.

2018-05-04 12:12:17 UTC  

There are so many layers of deception in anything the Russians say or do that even they have a hard time parsing it.

2018-05-04 12:12:38 UTC  

I look at the motive though... the SAA and SDF have only had minor clashes.. it would be silly to make them a majorr enemy now

2018-05-04 12:13:05 UTC  

and also get another strike from the allied coalition

2018-05-04 12:13:11 UTC  

Why? SAA has basically recaptured every other part of the country. To make any further advances they either have to clash with SDF or Turks.

2018-05-04 12:13:26 UTC  

They can't just sit idle when they're winning.

2018-05-04 12:14:12 UTC  

but SDF is taking care of ISIS in that region... theyd be better off heading south... or north to idlib

2018-05-04 12:14:26 UTC  

ISIS is basically dead as a conventional force.

2018-05-04 12:14:28 UTC  

I see that Turkey is now occupying a huge chunk of northern syria

2018-05-04 12:14:41 UTC  

in their "operation olive branch"

2018-05-04 12:15:03 UTC  

That little pocket that both sides are spit-roasting is their last piece of inhabited territory.

2018-05-04 12:15:17 UTC  

Erdogan: "we're going to create a safe zone in Syria... by killing everyone in sight"

2018-05-04 12:15:58 UTC  

He needs an external enemy.

2018-05-04 12:16:11 UTC  

Erdogan?

2018-05-04 12:16:18 UTC  

Yes. And there are Kurds on that side of the border.

2018-05-04 12:16:29 UTC  

what do you think will happen in 2021?

2018-05-04 12:16:47 UTC  

When there is a new leader in Syria

2018-05-04 12:17:18 UTC  

Too far out to predict anything in such a mixed up chaotic situation.

2018-05-04 12:17:39 UTC  

I mean literally Assad cannot run for office...

2018-05-04 12:17:59 UTC  

because of the ammendments parliament made to the constitution in 2012

2018-05-04 12:18:29 UTC  

whereby a president can only run for two 7yr terms max

2018-05-04 12:18:53 UTC  

I don't think laws are going to stop anyone here.

2018-05-04 12:18:58 UTC  

I guess he got round the loophole in 2014 by saying the amendment is new .. so this is his "second" term

2018-05-04 12:19:31 UTC  

if he goes against the syrian constitution he will lose all credibility

2018-05-04 12:20:03 UTC  

he was lucky enough to find 4 parties for form a coalition with him to get the 168 seats in parliament he needed

2018-05-04 12:25:45 UTC  

it looks like maybe Russia will concentrate on the north east while Syria handles the south east... its getting close to Israel tho... he wants to be careful

2018-05-04 12:26:46 UTC  

Tim you should go along with it 😛 .. change your name to Bond, Tim Bond

2018-05-04 12:29:23 UTC  

There's a possible flash point between the Russians and the Turks in that heavy bombardment of Al Lataminah area is rather close to a new Turk FOB near Morek, astride the main road north. Assuming the SAA takes the Al Lataminah, they'll have to deal with Turks next - either diplomatically or militarily.

2018-05-04 12:31:02 UTC  

I think until they get most of syria locked down... they should just concentrate of stopping any incursions into Aleppo, but who knows whats on their minds

2018-05-04 12:31:52 UTC  

any rebels they've ever beat they sent them all to Idlib... I imagine thats an extremely overcrowded place right now... and Assad let them keep all their personal weapons

2018-05-04 12:32:47 UTC  

Hey Tim, Fancy a trip to Idlib? 😛

2018-05-04 12:33:17 UTC  

Don't tell me... your submarine car is currently on the fritz

2018-05-04 12:34:29 UTC  

There are virtually no western journalists in the entire country.

2018-05-04 12:36:06 UTC  

First of all it's a meat grinder for anyone near areas of active fighting. Second of all no one wants to let randos cross the border. Getting in is extremely difficult as is not dying.

2018-05-04 12:37:00 UTC  

Which is a shame as it means when stuff like the recent missile strike happens no one has any hope of getting the truth of the matter. You just have to decide which narrative you like best.

2018-05-04 12:44:36 UTC  

haha, Tim works for Fox now apparently 😛

2018-05-04 12:44:57 UTC  

Congrats on the new position, Tim!