Message from @NewRogernomics

Discord ID: 649090017687371806


2019-11-27 03:18:28 UTC  

negative

2019-11-27 03:19:08 UTC  

that is going to cause a depression, because gov decifits is how unspent income gets back into the economy(though it can be spent unwisely)

2019-11-27 03:19:37 UTC  

in a barter economy (including gold standard and receipt money), its somewhat possible

2019-11-27 03:19:46 UTC  

but fiat monetary economy is totally different

2019-11-27 03:19:54 UTC  

Eh...multiple countries run at surplus, with gdp growth.

2019-11-27 03:20:27 UTC  

if they have trade surplus, they can, for a while, but entire economy cannot do that

2019-11-27 03:20:30 UTC  

that's how oyu get greece

2019-11-27 03:20:49 UTC  

same way some us states run trade surpluses with each other, but entire internal system cannot

2019-11-27 03:22:01 UTC  

and/or if they have some sovereign wealth situation like qatar or noway, but that won't last and they have their own monetary issues

2019-11-27 03:24:36 UTC  

I think that when a country reaches a certain size it can't achieve an outright surplus, as it will require more resources/goods than it can produce internally.

2019-11-27 03:26:26 UTC  

a COUNTRY as a whole can do a variety of things, but the governments and the monetary system are going to be constrained by the mechancis of the system. gov deficits in a fiat monetary system is essentially unspent income gets back into the economy, else you will get unemployment

2019-11-27 03:27:03 UTC  

the only way to make up for it is to explode private debt, which we saw after the great moderation

2019-11-27 03:27:47 UTC  

that will directly affect worker share of gdp as interest's share of the national income rises, and they you get that version of a breakdown

2019-11-27 03:28:22 UTC  

there is no free lunch with fiat money, but gov debt for the monetary sovereign doesn't work the way you think

2019-11-27 03:29:00 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/523835768813387796/649089257096347658/Screenshot_8.png

2019-11-27 03:29:02 UTC  

That isn't always the case in smaller economies, even if it might be in larger ones.

2019-11-27 03:29:35 UTC  

the size doesnt matter if they arent in a barter system

2019-11-27 03:29:50 UTC  

it's tied to the mechanics of how gov issued fiat money works

2019-11-27 03:30:38 UTC  

in barter system, including gold standards and the like, the same issues are there, but they are shifted almost totally into the private credit arena

2019-11-27 03:31:13 UTC  

extremes would be islamic banking, but they deal wtih the unspent income issue and thus the economic stagnation that results

2019-11-27 03:31:59 UTC  

If we talk about the Asia-Pacific, countries alternate between deficits and surpluses.

2019-11-27 03:32:45 UTC  

at any one point in time, they could be in one or the other, but its eventually going ot end up in a gov deficit with massive gov debt as soon as the private debt ratio gets to the turning point

2019-11-27 03:33:19 UTC  

hk perfect example, something like 800 percent now

2019-11-27 03:33:31 UTC  

also talked about in that kyle bass video i clipped from

2019-11-27 03:33:42 UTC  

Australia is the most advantageous I'd think as it has massive mineral wealth, and avoided a technical recession.

2019-11-27 03:33:58 UTC  

australia doubled down on the credit expansion in 08

2019-11-27 03:34:06 UTC  

but now their problems are even bigger

2019-11-27 03:34:22 UTC  

see my boy steve keen on exactly that, most of those pics are from his wor

2019-11-27 03:35:43 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/523835768813387796/649090948369743883/Screenshot_6.png

2019-11-27 03:35:45 UTC  

Tbh, grew up in New Zealand, so larger economies are harder to fathom for me.

2019-11-27 03:36:35 UTC  

NZ is more simple in that it can survive on tourism and niche exports.

2019-11-27 03:36:49 UTC  

it's not the size, it's "kind". certain blocks took different paths after credit crisis, australia and oceania doubled down(except for the pegged countries), the us and most of europe accepted contraction and some de-leveraging, but not nearly enough

2019-11-27 03:37:12 UTC  

main problem on my side of the world is austerity and trying to 'balance the budget', avoiding fiscal policy

2019-11-27 03:37:24 UTC  

it's a disaster but it's an entrenched belief system

2019-11-27 03:37:38 UTC  

(and/or corruption by people who know exactly what they are doing)

2019-11-27 03:37:47 UTC  

Well, NZ did its own version of austerity, which was a mistake as far as healthcare spending for sure.

2019-11-27 03:38:52 UTC  

Basically, the last government raised sales taxes, and cut healthcare and social welfare spending.

2019-11-27 03:39:07 UTC  

So now the current govt is having to pay for the gaps that resulted.

2019-11-27 03:39:58 UTC  

that's what happens when you try to balance the budget

2019-11-27 03:40:16 UTC  

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/523835768813387796/649092097466564608/Screenshot_7.png