Message from @Atkins

Discord ID: 481624561939644426


2018-08-22 00:41:20 UTC  

@LotheronPrime

I don't think so. The momentum in basically all elections to this point has been heavily Democrat favored and reinforced the margins each one is suggesting. Energy is very much on the Democrats side and the Republican base seems angry with the mainline Republicans.

Add to this that Trump is kinda offensive to the suburban voters that tend to drive midterm results (the working class voters Trump brought in usually stay home during the midterms).

The Blue wave is looking very likely.

2018-08-22 00:41:22 UTC  

because they are egomaniacs w

2018-08-22 00:41:45 UTC  

I woudln't count on a Blue Wave

2018-08-22 00:41:57 UTC  

There are hardly any ex trump supporters

2018-08-22 00:41:59 UTC  

I would. I'll actually make you a bet if you want.

2018-08-22 00:42:06 UTC  

there are walk-away campaigns

2018-08-22 00:42:20 UTC  

think about that

2018-08-22 00:42:21 UTC  

Didn't matter the second the Republican press picked up on it.

2018-08-22 00:42:32 UTC  

And I haven't heard it driving people towards the Republicans.

2018-08-22 00:42:49 UTC  

It doesn't need to

2018-08-22 00:42:53 UTC  

Trump's black approval rating is a pretty big deal.

2018-08-22 00:43:01 UTC  

and hispanic

2018-08-22 00:43:05 UTC  

And the midterms are decided in the suburbs. Middle class women have been driving the resistance.

2018-08-22 00:43:06 UTC  

It's in the 30s now isn't it?

2018-08-22 00:43:14 UTC  

Yeah. It's histroically high.

2018-08-22 00:43:15 UTC  

People not voting for dems or voting third party against a solid repub bloc has the same result

2018-08-22 00:43:27 UTC  

Really what is happening is that the political divide is becoming a male/female divide.

2018-08-22 00:43:37 UTC  

nah

2018-08-22 00:43:49 UTC  

With millennial women being the tightest block. As tight as blacks now.

2018-08-22 00:43:49 UTC  

authoritarian and libertarian

2018-08-22 00:44:03 UTC  

>Middle class women have been driving the resistance.
Really makes you ponder women's suffrage

2018-08-22 00:44:23 UTC  

I'd argue it was #MeToo.

2018-08-22 00:44:40 UTC  

They've basically re-written alot of the Democratic party at this point.

2018-08-22 00:44:53 UTC  

Didn't the political divide map closest to guns?

2018-08-22 00:45:01 UTC  

Issue-wise, yes.

2018-08-22 00:45:14 UTC  

It's also heavily decided by population density.

2018-08-22 00:45:17 UTC  

that would be authoritarian vs libertarian

2018-08-22 00:45:22 UTC  

not left/right

2018-08-22 00:45:27 UTC  

many gun owning liberals

2018-08-22 00:45:38 UTC  

Guns are a true urban/rural issue.

2018-08-22 00:45:44 UTC  

Also didn't white wahmen get Trump elected?

2018-08-22 00:45:55 UTC  

In part.

2018-08-22 00:45:58 UTC  

many reasons trump got elected

2018-08-22 00:45:59 UTC  

Not in total.

2018-08-22 00:46:04 UTC  

I remember him scoring remarkably well within certain age groups

2018-08-22 00:46:16 UTC  

2016 = Hilary beat herself

2018-08-22 00:46:20 UTC  

2020 = people vote for trump

2018-08-22 00:46:23 UTC  

Mostly voter turnout was low, which favors Republicans.

2018-08-22 00:46:45 UTC  

So glad Harmful is back

2018-08-22 00:47:07 UTC  

Rural people (liberals included) tend to see guns as key tools for fending against animals and potential attackers.

Urbanites (conservatives included) see guns purely as a weapon for crime.