#noncrypto-investing (Discord ID: 352760194775777282) in MacGuyver - Skills & Academics, page 2
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I've been very satisfied with Lending Club, I have automatic investing set up, and the returns have been good. I've used it for years now.
What's your rate been if you don't mind sharing?
The market obviously would have done far better, but the interest from Lending Club has always been solid. Yeah just a minute let me go get an accurate number.
5.92 for me.
Which is rather lower than it was.
It was up in the mid sixes.
So now I'm a bit chapped.
I was over 10% for the first six months
I don't look at it much, it just makes money.
@Deleted User i got into lending club back in 2014. I stopped buying notes about 2-3 years ago because i had an inordinate amount of defaults. i used a screen on what used to be called nickelsteamroller.com that showed very low default rates. the defaults in my portfolio exceeded what i thought i should have had by a lot. my return was about a 6% or so (according to them - which is higher than what it actually should be). with the risk of fraud and abuse, the understanding that the company makes money off of originations (incentive to make loans at any cost - even to those who shouldn't get loans), and lack of liquidity(I need a higher return than 6% for the lack of liquidity) I have decided to discontinue investing in LC notes. If you are looking for a 6% or so yield with good liquidity i can point you to some preferred stock
Point me at some preferred stock then.
@Why Tea CLNS-J, AHT-I, TWO-C. Those are all the ones I am in.. they all yield ~7%
So Lending Club loans are financed by masses of Lending Club investors?
A loan is split up into $25 segments called "notes"
@Rick So if one loan goes bad, it doesn't hit you very hard if you own many notes because it's a very small fraction of your portfolio.
It's similar to investing in a bond fund.
except you're tapping into consumer lending, not corporate or municipal lending
@Zyzz Thanks I think there's definitely a lot to that Greater Fool Theory. I've thought for a long time about how one might price bitcoin, and here is my swing at it: Bitcoin's main use is as a transaction network. If you want to transfer money to someone you could use one of several networks, like bank networks etc, or you can use Bitcoin. If you want to transfer money and decide to use the Bitcoin network, you first buy bitcoin and then send it to someone who sells the bitcoin. Now on your end you are trying to pay the amount owed plus a transaction fee, on the other end someone wants to get the amount owed. To simplify let's say the transaction is instantaneous (otherwise let's add a bitcoin volatility premium to the amount of bitcoin you want to send). So as someone looking to use the Bitcoin network as a service, you don't really care what the price of bitcoin is, you are trying to settle something in dollars and you are merely using bitcoin as a medium. I made the simplifying assumptions the transaction is instantaneous and let's say both buyer of bitcoin and seller of bitcoin can and do immediately exchange the dollar for bitcoin and then bitcoin for dollars.
So then to the people using bitcoin as a transaction network it doesn't really matter to them what the price of bitcoin is under these conditions, since it's only a medium for them to get dollars from one place to another.
But there are other people on the sides of that bitcoin for cash exchange, the guy selling the transferer the bitcoin, and the guy buying back the bitcoin from the transferee. Let's simplify the assumption that it is some how the same person.
So this guy holds bitcoin until people want to use his bitcoin for their transaction
You have to pay him to not hold cash
and he makes his money on the difference between what you pay for X bitcoin and what he pays out for X bitcoin to the other person
So the guy who holds bitcoin makes money by selling bitcoin high to the transferer and buying it low to the transferee. And the thing that stops him from just screwing over the transferee by not buying back the bitcoin is that there are other people who want to get in and provide this same transfering money service using bitcoin
So in the end owning bitcoin winds up sounding like owning a substrait of the infrastructure of a payment network.
So even though it's not perfect I think of bitcoins as like shares of american express or something
@Deleted User Interesting. I have seen a few Lending Club loans on credit reports. Never know that's what it was, though.
@ThisIsChris i certainly understand the demand for wanting to transact in crypto currencies but it just seems like a lot of buying and selling. i know very little about the FOREX markets and have a very rudimentary understanding of what causes currency appreciation and depreciation. But people must store their wealth in certain currencies (not everyone is going to hold 100% gold) and those currencies are usually of more stable countries (USD, Euro, GBP, JPY, CHF). I do not see BTC as stable. If you want to liken it to commodities, metals in particular, you have gold which central banks will hold and individuals will hold as a store of value. there is clear demand for long term ownership as it is agreed gold is a store of value. take an industrial metal like copper or silver. these metals have an end use. ie: they are consumed. Also new supply is important to consider as well. How is BTC created?
@Zyzz I totally agree with you that it is mostly buying and selling, I've just been trying to create a "fundamental analysis" of bitcoin to see how to think of it having an intrinsic value.
Bitcoin is created as a reward for "miners" who provide all the computing power to keep the Bitcoin network going.
@Zyzz The explanation I've heard is that BTC is computational proof of work. Not sure how that confers value but that's the response I've gotten.
That reward is also decreasing until it will eventually taper off to nothing
@ThisIsChris interesting. this concept sounds a little foreign to me. the idea of computing power needed to keep the bitcoin network going. or is that tech jargon for essentially being a market maker (which is what you described in an above paragraph)?
@Deleted User i guess i dont understand why computational proof of work is needed? is it in the same concept as having to physically mine for gold or silver?
@Zyzz So every node in the bitcoin network (including your own computer if you want) there is a record of ever bitcoin transaction, this is used to build a ledger that shows how much bitcoin each person holds. Persons on the ledger are represented by your wallet, which is a long code that people use to send you money.
Given this, if I want to send money from my wallet to your wallet, the network needs to do a lot of computational work to check the ledger to confirm that I have enough bitcoin on my row of the ledger such that I am allowed to take some of that and put it on your part of the ledger. The computational work of verifying that on this giant decentralized ledger is the computational work needed to run bitcoin
There are a lot of uses for crypto currency in general. But bitcoin isn’t very _good_ at any of them. There are better crypto systems out there. Which is why I don’t believe anyone “uses” bitcoin in good faith but rather pumps and dumps to make some cash.
I’d rather invest in Ethereum or monero or something but I can’t be bothered when I have invested in anything else yet
That is not entirely correct @ThisIsChris . BitCoin mining is artificialy (I don't mean that with any pejorative conotations) induced computational work that gets harder over time. Maintaining the ledger is computationaly very cheap (easy). In order to ensure that ledger has not been tampered with an industry standard SHA256 hash is used. Calculating the hash is also very cheap and designed to be super fast. Each hash is distributed with equal statistical probability throughout the 256bit space. Crypto currencies say this: ok, if you hash the ledger you will get a number between 1 and 1024 (numbers just for representation). Each number is equally likely. You hash computation will take 1 second. Well, we want to introduce 'difficulty' so add a random number to the ledger, cacl the hash again and make sure that hash is <256. You will now have to run the hash function between 1-4 times (1-4 seconds) so it takes longer. You have only 1 in four chance of getting it under 256. The first guy to calc it, gets the bitcoin reward. As soon as 2K blocks have been added to the ledger if it took less than 10 minutes, the difficulty goes up meaning the next hash needs to be under 128, double the difficulty. As you have more nodes, it goes faster but difficulty gets higher. The 'mining' part is artificial. It has nothing to do with the work required to maintain a ledger itself.
this of course presents a problem to the network. Anybody that can own 50%+ of the network can front run the hashes and own the entire network. So for example, guys like Goldman or NSA can get enough hashing power to front run everyone. Not say that is what they would do, but that is one of the flaws. The other flaw is that bitcoin algo depends on internet running it. A statue prohibiting bitcoin protocol at the backbone level would instantly render the entire bitcoin concept entirely moot and completely and utterly defunct. In one minute.
to be clear, i mined crypto currencies, wrote tools to operate them in our data center and i think blockchain could be a wonderful corporate tool for titles and contracts so I am not knocking it. I just don't see bitcoin or crypto currency ever being a currency but it is good to speculate on for sure. Maybe someone here knows if there are put options you can take out on it?
The dome on this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqF43uD3kKQ
@eastern.patriarch "I just don't see bitcoin or crypto currency ever being a currency" - I don't get it, if I can exchange it for goods and services, is it not a currency?
Sure, I am not saying bitcoin is bad. I try not to deal in absolutes. Many things can be mediums of exchange or store of value or both. Obviously the less liquid an asset is (i.e. your home) the harder it is to use it as a medium of exchange but it obviously has value. Many things today serve as money or currency or medium of exchange. I think the toal amount of paper dollars is about 1T. When you think about it, most transactions are done not in dollars, they are just _priced_ in dollars. Billions of transactions on securities markets are priced in dollars but not transacted in dollars. When you get a loan on a car, no dollars are used. What is being exchanged is your promisory note to pay for the loan (and the government's enforcement of it through repo, asset forfeiture laws, etc) for a car. No dollars are exchanged. It is barter in a way. So yes, if you can use something to exchange it for something else, you got yourself some money (currency would be the physical embodiment of money to be pedantic).
I have crypto currencies, like I said. I am not knocking it. I am saying use it, invest in it buy goods and services. Just remember that unless it is backed by the power of state (for all debts public and private) or is valuable beyond its monetary value (gold, land, old silver quarters), it cannot replace the currency backed by the state. This is not a technical problem just a legal one. There is nothing preventing the USTreas and Congress from deciding to switch everything over to bitcoin, start operating nodes in a blockchain. If you think that is where it is going, investing in it is a good idea. If you have 50K of speculative money to throw away, maybe that is a good idea too, why not? I am just saying that bitcoin is not going to be valued at US GDP/BitCoin eventual total mining output /21 million = $809,523 or even more absurd world gdp / total = $10mil per. I am not trying to argue, just offer some information that might or might not be helpful to people that look at bitcoin and think, hey maybe I can get rich off this and crypo will replace USD.
Long posts, i know. I am running database scripts now so i have to sit and watch it... lol
Case-sensitive aggregation hmm?
Nah man, it's just aggravating that people are going to lose their savings in Bitcoin
A lot of undereducated people are jumping onto it
I agree with that @John O -, but there is a name for retail investors jumping in chasing yield. Liquidity. lol
By the way, I meant that your broker is using case sensitive aggreagation instead of case insensitive therefore making bitcoin appear twice with different capitalization. I did not mean that you are aggrevated about this case....
Yeah, saw that
@here Reminder: Seminar on understanding options TONIGHT at 8PM CT. React to this if you're going to be listening so I know if I should expect an audience. If there's at least one react, it's on.
aww, wish it was on Futures
@FivePointPalm. They are very similar. I can work in how futures are different if you like.
TEACH US ABOUT BITCOIN
I'm not even close to qualified to teach about BTC. I have a bunch of books if you want them though.
Actually, I can give it now.
Let me tell the kids.
OK. I'll record it and send it to you.
Will PM you after I'm done.
I'm going to be sleeping. Looking forward to listening tomorrow
Sure thing. I'll just send you a dropbox link so you can grab it whenever. If no one shows up I'll get in touch with you and we'll do it live another time.
@here options seminar starts in five minutes.
ill brb. just keep going
James' ex has gotta be real salty about now
lmao that's not a real breakup letter
women don't understand finance enough to have that be a reason for the breakup
Guys, Dogecoin is at $.0028
The only logical conclusion is that it will go to the moon
haha I remember buying like a bazillion doge coin when it was first popular
I think it was 20 bucks
Hope you held onto it, you would have $35 by now
I just wanna let you guys know that I am not bitter that i did not buy bitcoin in 2012 for 15 dollars a coin. No matter how many times I post on this thread every other day for the next 5 years. Trust me, I am not bitter!
There is still ripple
Anybody know anything about the future of ethereum? Trying to figure out if I should sell or hold tight
Have you already withdrawn your initial investment?
@Tron A few Countries are planning to make ETH their official currency backing. Microsoft, and a few other big corporations as well
So I've heard
Ethereum is developing a really cool shared storage system. It's called Swarm. You can use your drives to help store peoples' stuff in a distributed way and earn FileCoin
By the way reminds me of Storaj
it's still very early. But it gives an idea of the vision they have for the future. Pretty neat
So many uses for ethereum
But transaction speed limits are a problem.
Is there anything as volatile as crypto to invest in right now?
Why do you want a volatile security?
i would consider penny stocks are more volatile than crypto. both are bullish tho.
Got a question for the big brained financiers in here.
If I'm already going steady on retirement investing and am looking to invest in something with disposable income over time whats the best place to start?
@Deleted User are you saying you want something more speculative? i would buy individual stocks
The idea of having an account tied to real life money on my phone, where I connect to public WiFi and bring it around the general public isn't good for me
i don't have it set up to use i just watch the graphs
i have thinkorswim
tryna get fluent in that, currently papertrading
i might use it for swing trades though
So should I buy 600 Ripplecoins, or invest into Etheruem for the long run? ETH looks more primising tbh goys.
A recap of every financial convo I've had with guys at work
Guys take a look at ticker LFIN
its gone from 38$ to 96$ already today
BUY HIGH SELL LOW
I'm up 143% returns
paper money though :'(
Cash out and d'nat to IE.
isnot real money, is simulated trading buddy
and I've got to support myself before i can help y'all more financially
That's one sick hobby/recreational passtime
i gotta get good before i invest my funds haha
and I'm seeing profit so I'm hopeful
nasdaq is now manipulating the shit out of the stock
boutta be a class action lawsuit in here
IOTA is at $4.30 right now
Should I wait for it to dip?
For Bitcoin I think that's a bad strategy, but IOTA is more volatile
i don't know a thing about that sorry
is this the crypto server?
Might as fucking well be
@NotVlast#6354 I've been watching iota for 10 months
But it was just in a dip
Idk if it is about to dip again but that price has been pretty stable
I stopped using coinbase they raised their fees through the roof
So I have to get a new bank account to use different platforms because my credit union is too small for most
I wish I had put more than $100 in Litecoin
basically tripled my $$$
what should we use besides coinbase?
Gemini was suggested to me. They have Bitcoin and Ethereum
Looks like the site isn't currently up
Could I make an altcoin moon by buying it and then shilling online? Would that even be ethical?
I could find some coin valued at $0.00001, buy up a crazy amount, and post about it all over 4chan and Reddit.
Alternatively, we can short a coin, get Anglin to endorse it, and buy the dip.
That's way more viable. We should use shorting to fund pro-white activism
That wouldn't ruin our reputation at all
dude gen Z kids would find it hilarious if we short some SJW company
@Jacob yes anglin should endorse a currency and call it the currency of the alt right and get it to dip and we buy lol
Does anyone know good resources to learn how to pick stocks?
check out the YouTube channel Ricky Gutierrez
join his group techbud solutions
its nice 👌
Don't pick stocks.
Check out a quilt chart as to why. Stock picking for most is a fools gold and inefficient,
And shorting options should and can only be done by experts as it leaves investors vulnerable to incredible losses.
The goal is 10% growth in a diversified portfolio. That doubles your money every 10 years. Sure, get rich quick schemes work 1% of the time, but fail otherwise and all that capital is wasted.
Is it that hard to beat index funds?
Bitcoin is better termed petrodollars since it now takes 20 barrells oil to mine one bitcoin
Beating index is called Alpha, and it is difficult
Not impossible by any means, but requires a strategy
And generally, to add alpha, it is more efficient to use mutual funds or etfs
With bitcoins going to 100 barrel prices, I would sell and stay away
Why would it be so hard to find stocks that can at least slightly beat the market?
If it were that easy, everyone would be doing it...beating the market is basically saying beating company valuations...possible as a one off? Sure. Long term it has been shown not to work.
Valuations are done by very intelliegent people, experienced at what they are doing, and have far more info than 99.9% of investors
Yes, penny stock from the pink sheets could work out, but that is exceedingly rare
Everyone wouldn't be doing it because the stocks would become overbought, but, ya, some of those are good points
The first millionaire from the 49er Gold Rush sold the shovels ;-) True story.
Instead of buying Apple, maybe buy shares in the company that supplies Apple the compknents...that can build alpha
So, here's the thing. Index funds naturally are going to include some obviously shit stocks that drag down the average. So, would it really be that difficult to find something that is at the very least above average?
@Jacob I’ve been able to successfully pick individual stocks for years by watching price to earnings ratios. ETF’s that track broader markets are still your best option most of the time.
I'm not sure I'm agreeing with most of what's being said here... you absolutely can be successful picking stocks 😅
why are we acting like it's completely impossible to do technical analysis and have a successful swing trade lol
or even successfuly mitigate risk while capitalizing on momentum?...
while playing lower to mid cap things with more volatility and having trades that are on a shorter basis you're not going to win 100% of the time, nobody does. You need to have the proper entry and exit strategies so if you do lose (which you will) it's only 2-4%
but when you do win, it can be 3-30% percent or even more
like i said @Jacob join techbud solutions and go in the main voice chat during market open, that can be the best way to learn, just by observing
obviously Google and YouTube whatever you can too
and for the love of god (and your funds) before you even think about using real money... make sure you demonstrate to yourself that you actually can do this right with a papertrading account
Tfw threw $$$ into crypto and stocks without any research and have made a few hundred dollars
Yeah, money sucks
whats this new currency im hearing about
iota or something?
IOTA isn't particularly new to my knowledge
There's probably a lot of shitcoins released every day
i think the main cryptos will absorb the smaller ones
cryptos can't "absorb" each other
I heard that Bitcoin currently consumes the power equivalent of the island of Ireland, and in 9 months is projected to rival the United States. Does that worry anyone?
@John O That sounds unsustainable.
@DCViking exactly. The whole idea that the computing power required to complete each transaction rises exponentially is insane. It's something that occurred to me a year or two ago, but I just assumed I didn't really understand how Bitcoin worked. Now that other people are talking about it, I'm more confident that the whole thing is going to become worthless
I mean, it's theoretically possible for some big brain developer to make that happen, but I don't see what the incentive would be to go through that whole shitshow
I'm trying to visualize how that would even work
I'm not talking about absorption
I guess the Bitcoin code could be changed so that more Bitcoin is created, and those new Bitcoin could be split up and redistributed to the holders of the coin being "absorbed", and the one getting absorbed could subsequently be deleted.
I'm talking about computing power
It sounds to me like it's either bullshit or overblown
It's not like Bitcoin transactions just hijack power from unsuspecting bystanders, the computers on the network have to supply that power
Large transaction fees are a problem, though, and I think Bitcoin will eventually be replaced by something with less insane fees and faster transaction
Of course not, but when the computing power required to complete one transaction is more expensive than the actual Bitcoin is when it will fail
oh, so I guess what you're asking is basically about transaction fees
ya those are an issue
It should not cost 16 fucking dollars to send money
More just the feasibility of an ever growing demand for power
People use whatever power they can suppy
So these Ireland comparisons are pretty dumb
Remember, here at IE, we care about per capita
But, yes, massive transaction fees are an issue
So I do think Bitcoin wil lose to something else eventually
If power demanded exceeds power supplied, the currency will crumble from lack of reliability
Which is the only thing a fiat currency has
Like I said, some better coin will probably come long