#general (Discord ID: 481597551272001546) in Nice Respectable People Group, page 78
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Yeah this current economic cycle is gonna sour within a few years
How low will the market drop though?
Dat yield curve
That’s the question
No one really even knows if it will drop
No one knows if we're at the top
It's just the consensus among experts
5%? OK on a 100k house that's 5K less than a years rent at 500 per month.
Yea for sure, just stuff to consider.
Some people think it’s just the generic market correction that happens every 10 years or so, that happens every time the fed increases interest rates. Other people think it’s going to be really bad since a lot of assets are considered to be overvalued (which was prompted by the buy up after the 2008 recession.)
My thoughts as well, but it couldn't hurt to wait a year and a half
There is no real predicting of a market cycle. For example if the average time between recessions is 7 years, none of the sample recessions will have lasted 7 years.
The S&P500 is like... doing better than it should be doing, honestly.
Ehh yeah and then another 18 months and another...
No explicit predicting, however watching for the yield curve to invert is a standard hallmark.
You're a bit older than me, though 😏
I'm in the get a house, get married, have kids mindset full stop though.
Oh no doubt.
If the market doesn't take a serious turn for the worse in the next year and a half, I'm buying. There's no stopping me
Hell yeah brother. BOOMERTOWN Usa
By then, my savings will be more than sufficient for a very sizeable down payment
Never get a 30 year
I’m sure you know that but still
30 years are the worst thing on the planet
I plan on putting down at least half the value of the home
15 should be no problem for you then
I’m not incredibly well versed in real estate finance but uh. Spending over twice what a property is worth just sounds unpleasant.
Obviously, given my profession, I won't be able to live like a king, but I'm very frugal and have some money tucked away
I'm looking at $150k properties
It's hard to do, but shit, it's a goal
A 150k property in central Florida probably isn’t *too* hard to find
You can get houses for 6k here
You wouldn’t want to live in them.
You can find tear downs around here for that kind of money, but it's hard to secure loans, and demolition is expensive
I mean, most here are that cheap because of the area.
Yeah it’s cheap because it’s in Darfur.
Just something pretty I saw.
There's an Instagram account called "Cheap Old Houses" that features *gorgeous* old fixer uppers all over the country for less than 100k. Caveat, they're all in *certain neighborhoods* or really economically depressed areas. My Victorian renovation dreams are still on hold.
@micbwilli Cool, but holy crap, it's gonna send me into a seizure, lol.
I wish it would slow down a little. Definitely looks cool. @micbwilli
ah, my daily dose of epilepsy is going well
I didn't know gifs played instantly on discord.
don't mind me, I'll be on the floor writhing
@Salo Saloson make sure to lay on your side so you don't choke on the mouth foam.
thanks for the tip
Is it a sign you're about you have a baby if you get songs like "I'm a Little Teapot" stuck in your head (asking for a friend)
I work in mortgage, so if anyone needs advice on obtaining a loan, feel free to ask.
I hope everyone is having a wholesome day so far. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOlqsqZzgg4
@John O - The interest rate is usually a little less on a FIX15 than on a FIX30; however, the FIX15 payment is greater than a FIX30 payment. When you have the funds, you can always pay extra principal on a FIX30, to pay it off sooner, but still have a smaller required payment for leaner months.
I have a FIX30 and I make about two extra payments every year.
That's the plan
I wage-cuck as an underwriter, so feel free to ask me any questions, should you have any, about the home loan approval process.
I take objection to the claim that the market is too high. Earnings have increased substantially alongside it unlike what you would see from a bubble
But investors really aren’t looking at the possibility of an anti trust case against some of these huge companies like Amazon, which worries me
Check out @ColbyCovMMA’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/ColbyCovMMA/status/1041180386246778881?s=09
@missliterallywho Most definitely. The real sign that you've lost it is when you sing it more than the kids do and they beg you to stop.
@NateDahl76 Earnings as in stock earnings/returns? Or earnings as in wages for workers? If worker's wages are increasing, that's news to me
@Flint Corporate earnings. Wages are increasing due to the tight labor market, but only by about 2 or 3% since last August. If it were too rapid, it could cause extra inflation. Excited to see how much wages increase during the Trump administration. Wage stagnation has obviously been a big issue
Don't forget to register for DEFEND THE ROCKIES today! 🏔
I always lead with “not to be racist, but” before saying something very racist to a normie. For example, my real estate agent asked what I thought the roof inspecter was thinking, whether he thought it was good or bad. I said I wasn’t sure because he was black and had a “whatever” attitude
>when Patrick reads ie late night chat logs
@⚡Clark⚡ Was the roof inspector an employee of a larger company or a private contractor?
He was there to check for a leak on a certain section of the roof that the general inspecter was suspecting of leaking. Instead the roof inspecter decides to check the whole roof and say there’s other things wrong with it that in fact are fine
(This is for the buyer)
I don't think I ever specified Double Dash, although it is a great game.
I believe you said it was for the Gamecube and that is the only Mario Kart for NGC.
haha maybe. Patrick strikes me as more of an RPG guy.
Sadly, the NGC was lacking in RPGs.
Currently playing Dragon Quest XI myself.
These days Patrick spends his time playing the RPG known as twitter.
We are all NPCs in his Twitter tl
The real Russian bots
What the hell, Putin. my check bounced last month.
I was never ashamed to admit that I play video games until I became an indentitarian.
Sometimes when we’re interacting with liberal NPCs on twitter we start writing congratulations to each other in Cyrillic
Once in a while I will accuse a leftist of being a russian bot. Funny stuff.
Lmaoo there’s this one hippie who likes to comment irrelevant Dalai Lama quotes under IE posts
Lit up her mentions after the recent news, mad funny
Bro that was so funny
That hippie lady...
@Deleted User. DR3 actually means = Democrats are the real Russians? 🤔
I argued with some enviromentalist who became a climate change denyer because I said we cannot have a clean environment and 10 billion brown people.
Inb4 my 1 week suspension
tfw Sunday and no FtN...
Convict Report is funny though. Them Dingoes always keep a good attitude.
Holy crap; Faith takin' it up another notch: https://youtu.be/j9VKZ2ocq4Y
Presented without comment
I’ve almost entirely given up gaming at this point. Anything more than a few hours a week is a waste of time.
The Majora’s Mask tweet was in response to a hilarious argument between two accounts I follow.
@Reinhard Wolff logo v Beardson is the match-up the people are craving
It’s hard to argue video games are better than books
Different categories imo
Well, they’re obviously different categories but what I’m getting at is that video games fall into the category of things that are okay in small amounts but offer no significant benefits, whereas books offer the potential to dramatically alter people for the better.
Or dramatically alter people for the worse if it's an eldritch tome of forbidden knowledge like the Necronomicon or the King in Yellow
I still play RPGs sometimes. For the compelling stories of course. I also enjoy grinding levels while listening to podcasts. But I agree, it is mostly a waste of time.
If video games don't have the power to alter people for the better, I call that the fault of the author and not the medium. Were the studios not run by communist and nihilist swine, I dare say they could rise to the level of great art.
Yeah, I've always felt that Garry's Mod really spoke to the human spirit
Skyrim was the last hurrah and felt like an opera
Skyrim for the Nords!
Found this when the Utah guys and I were flyering yesterday.
PF actually has a good amount of postering on their twitter.
This example has to be at least a couple months old, interesting to see it worn down like that
Yeah, I was surprised to see it. This was right outside of a university so I didn't think any flyer would last that long.
Those PF guys should just join IE.
My sticker outside a high school had been there for like a year
Over a year, I think, actually
They really should. I’ve talked to a couple who probably wouldn’t make it in the application process, though.
Not that I’m any kind of judge of that, considering I haven’t made it the whole way 😂
@NateDahl76 you can tell. The interactions we have had with the PF types have generally resulted in them doing some LARPy thing from what I have heard.
Like taking some creative license to the tip amount on a restaurant tab...
Lol I would imagine
A lot of PF is people who were/would be rejected by IE. I'm sure some could make the cut, but I'm not sure many could abide by our server rules and guidebook
@Sam Anderson I just made the keyframe location of an element of a video I'm working on rn that larpy tip amount just for you. 👌🏻
Every member of PF i have talked to has lauded IE
PF can do their thing, IE does ours. No reason to conflict or overlap. We want similar worlds, different roads. Of course for branding, and a different target demographic, IE needs to behave differently and that's fine.
Same with TRS and stormer book clubs. They appeal to different types of people and make them productive to the extent that they can be.
I still think we need to concentrate capital as much as possible. But that doesn’t mean countersignalling ofc
And yeah- their leader designs all the propaganda and stuff. Dude is almost totally out of the spotlight
There's some crossover appeal between TRS, PF, and us, but even if we didn't serve different purposes, consolidating into one group wouldn't be great strategy
Because any scandal or lawsuit could bring the whole movement down at once (though I'm confident we'll win the Charlottesville suit)
True. The "movement" is antifragile when decentralized. Too much concentrated leadership is a broken crate away from disaster.
Saul Alinski wrote that it's easier to destroy the person than the idea and it's true. Part of why the alt-right label lost its magic was that it went from a big tent to Richard Spencer's personal movement then he ran it into the ground
I see PF as a friendly rivalry, it's good to have someone to compete against
The more people talk about the farm murders, the better.
Another point with PF is that they make us look more moderate by comparison. It's always good to have someone to your right pulling the Overton Window towards you.
How is white America doing tonight?
Today was a good day. Went to the shooting range with my oldest son today, gave to some good causes, mini date with my wife and she bought me a pipe.
Could we push for Lauren Southern to get on JRE?
@Ben Rainsford - OH Worked on my own small business products all day, now I'm working on freelance editing project tonight.
Basically, my "white privilege" has me working all weekend. 👌🏻
Guess who fracture their elbow today? 😀
How was the weekend my dudes?
My weekend was good. Went home and visited the family. My dad sent me back with a cooler full of steaks, so basically I'm going to eat like a T rex for the next week
I smashed down on a rock on Labor Day and it's been hurting since. Got it xrayed today. Turns out it was just a bad bruse.
I meant to say "didn't fracture my elbow."
I went to a Constitution Day celebration, did some fliering and pwned noobs
I was drunk on a rope swing for Labor Day... 😔
Your new story:
There I was, surrounded by assailants.... One left hook, KO... one Head Kick, another KO..... Then the final attacker, I finished off with a flying elbow!
What's the coolest injury you've ever had?
Mine was playing king of the hill on a lexan board being dragged by a 4 wheeler when I was 14.
Broke my pinky while sparring. Now my pinky is crooked, and the knuckle is double the size it should be. 😉
I worked at a mental hospital and I interrupted a self-hanging attempt, the inconsolable lad scratched my eye as I brought him down. Was in a patch for a week. luckily no infections.
I cut my thumb down the middle on a rotory meat slicer. Don't try to do tomatoes on them.
My brother and I were sword fighting with broken pipes and he sliced my hand open
A bowling ball stuck on my middle finger and broke the bone sideways. I should go bowling again soon.
Joking around with a buddy in the bathroom in school. Slipped and hit my head on a toilet, blacked out for a second, didn’t feel anything. Had blood coming down my face like a horror movie and I casually walked down to the nurses office
Bowling is very white
Good date too
I worked at a bowling center for 2 years. Used to be good. I bowled a 280 once.
It ruined my back tho cause it's a very asymmetrical exercise. I play pool now.
Oh, I forgot the time I sliced my hand on an ice auger
saw the blood hit the snow/ice before I felt it.
I've cut my fingers a few times with my big knives if that counts
ohh, I once had a pencil stuck in my temple before. that's uh, cool right? 😅
The government also plans to raise the retirement age to 70.
*resist urge to Hapa-post*
Seriously, how selfish and pathetic do you really have to be...?
Quick! Send them refugees!
I really feel sorry for the Japanese. After WWII their culture became neutered.
Gotta get those Nip lads after their own women!
Honorary Aryans rise up!
Meet Japan's globalist foreign minister, Taro Kono.
Yikes. Well Viets aren't great, but better than Pakis or Nigerians
Man this world just keeps getting worse and worse doesn't it?
I have a guy in my office that is Japanese-American he always goes on about how clean and nice it is and that everyone has health care. I got him to admit yesterday that it was due to homogeneous population and that culture is downstream of biology. I was honestly scared to stay it, but felt I needed to speak up.
Japan is hopelessly overpopulated, they absolutely need this "thinning".
@Tyler0317 I agree, but the Japanese government is obsessed with economic growth.
I toured Japan in 2010, they have many forests and farms, but yes the cities are crowded. If every urban Japanese family had double the current apartment space they would be much happier I think.
@Tyler0317 I thinning is no good if it's not equal across the age classes. They are thinning on future workers.
More robots, more marriage. No immigrants
The 65-69 age group was the biggest in 2016. 2rd biggest 40-44 and 3rd biggest 45-49.
Same guy made a stink about how blacks commit more crime due to poverty and said most people didn't understand the statistics. He didn't get the outcome is maintain when you stratified the groups by economic status, but I wasn't gonna touch that one at the time.
I feel for the Japs, honestly. WW2 was their last ditch effort to acquire space for their population.
That empire gone, they have no choice but massive overcrowding, and a slavish work ethic.
@Tyler0317 They need to start making jar babies. They are smart and can figure it out.
The death pyramid.
At least Japan works hard in the direction of automation
Rather than bringing in foreign workers
This is not new, but it is pretty funny. I've seen so many articles like this that were serious.
Japan is to cocaine as western civilization is to meth. Sure it's not as bad, but it's definitely not the model society. Still sick to it's core and completely corrupted by globohomo consumerism. Yukio Mishima tried to warn them.
I didn't know coccaine was big there
I wish my brother and dad wouldn't do Japan... 😢
is it too late that I was planning to do Japan?
am I infected already?
Anime is really odd, and I say that even as a fan of many series. Very few series have casts resembling Yamato Japanese in any way. Most anime characters are overexagerated Europeans or otherworldly aliens (pink, blue, green hair).
oh. I meant I was planning on visiting there sometime
Is it really that they liked early Disney and TinTin so much?
mostly so I can see the nihongo's yamatodaishii and proper castles in the south of the country
Osaka Castle is cool. Nara and Kyoto are really crowded in the summer.
I would definitely visit Japan, but I would stay in the rural areas or wherever the cool castles and traditional stuff is.
The castles are usually in the town centers. The towns grew around them
There are exceptions of course
I'd rather not deal with a bunch of nihongo farmers who are going to yell at me in rice language
i didn't mean quite *that* rural. just not Tokyo, maybe...
I don't even like cities in places i *do* speak the language.
Go to Hokkaido
I didn't make it up there last time I was in japan and am still butthurt about it
Same here. I made it to Mt Osore which was cool, I wish I had seen Disetsuzan (sp?) and Mt. Rausu
Tokyo can be pretty neat, but i've always wanted to go to Kyoto and Sapporo
I go to Japan frequently. There’s no need for foreign workers. They have enough to do make-work things we would never do, like have 6 people direct you around a sidewalk that has been diverted around a building being constructed. Service is amazing, and it is highly functional. And yes to someone’s point earlier - having 140 million in a mostly mountainous archipelago the size of Montana would seem to justify a lower population.
They seemed pretty fine last I was there. They understand their birthrate is falling, but at least so far, haven't considered replacing themselves as an option
@ophiuchus I've heard concern trolls kvetch over talks in Japan about importing immigrants
I hope they are concern trolls, because I wouldnt be surprised if the japanese kids spoiled by a lack of our problems will decide to experiment
Honestly, a lower birth rate probably wouldn't be a bad thing for Japan. Thin the island out without anything unnatural would probably be a great thing for everyone there.
Other than tax cattle, I don't see the purpose in an ever expanding population.
Especially when these countries are importing tax drains.
There are huge (yuge) swarths of Japan that are sparsely, or completely uninhabited.
Until we have fairly stable and functional automation of production and farming, population must expand in order to support the previous generation. Not saying it's ideal - but it's how things are at the moment.