"Sinema is now the only openly non-theist or atheist member of Congress,[96][97] although she herself has rejected such labels.[41] She is also the first openly bisexual member of Congress.[98] "

I mean, I personally don't really have too much of a problem with that....but +4 in Arizona?

"Sinema opposed Arizona SB 1070. She has argued that mass deportation of undocumented immigrants is not an option and supported the DREAM Act. Her 2012 campaign website stated that "we need to create a tough but fair path to citizenship for undocumented workers that requires them to get right with the law by paying back taxes, paying a fine and learning English as a condition of gaining citizenship."[87] "

https://redstorm2018.wordpress.com/2018/07/04/quick-rundowns-on-senate-races-from-some-anon-on-8chan/

For the Democrats:

– Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Rep. from AZ-09. She is so much the favorite that nobody bothers polling this primary. A former greenie turned Dem, dyke complete with “problem glasses” and a unique spelling of her first name, a former Mormon turned atheist with a somewhat-hispanic-sounding name (it’s actually turkroach or persian), she’s practically a meme.

– Deedra Abboud, a fucking moslem, complete with hijab and of course makeup worn with it. She is the “United We Rise” candidate. So this is literally Meme Vs. Meme. I’ll say this right now: Deedra Abboud could win this primary. Don’t be surprised if she does. If Abboud wins the Dem primary, there is no way in Hell the Dems win this seat.

(((Polls))) suggest Sinema has an edge over either McSally or Ward, and would clean Arpaio’s clock. An Emerson poll puts Sinema vs McSally at +8, and at +12 vs Ward. There were no internals given, but they did have a generic ballot poll that put Dems at +4%, which is just fucking ridiculous in Arizona. Shift that poll by 10 points to the GOP and looks reasonable. An NBC/Marist poll had similar numbers with 839 registered voters contacted, only 371 of which were potential GOP primary voters, not all of whom are GOP voters (some number of independents included), so again, a heavy Dem bias to the poll.

In this race, there may be a lolbert “splitter” by the name of Doug Marks, who needs to update his website with a new security certificate if he wants normie traffic and who maybe needs to get more petitions signed. Lolberts get pretty good uptake in Arizona, or at least they did when the “Never Trumpers” were running, no telling if they’re regress back to the 1% or so that they got in previous cycles, even if he gets on the ballots.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3812/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-race-in-Arizona-in-2018

69%

for Sinema

"gosh SInema is a great candiate"

"McSally is overrated. Its at least lean D if she is the nominee"

"Man Sinema is crushing it"

"

https://www.emerson.edu/sit...

> A new Emerson College ePoll finds Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) in the lead for her party’s
nomination and also ahead of her three Republican rivals in hypothetical head to head match
ups."

----

"I understand why this market is priced the way it is, and I realize that Sinema is favored. I actually live in the state, and I'll be voting for her.

...But I can't help but buy sub-40c shares of a Republican winning an AZ statewide election. At the end of the day, it's Arizona - a Democrat having two-to-one odds in favor just seems intuitively unreasonable."

"I know Sinema personally and she hides some very dark secrets, I live in AZ too and if you’d like I could tell you a few things that might help to explain who she really is."

"Trump did make Arizona great again by making it blue next is Texas"

"After AZ-8th, easy dem."

>Atheist bisexual

Yeah this sounds like that thot in Georgia

"I would love to see Deedra Abboud, a progressive Muslim woman, win the nomination from Democrats, just because of how Republicans would react to her. Trump tweeting from his golden toilet seat about the dangers of "sharia law" and common sense gun control, McSally making generalizations about how Muslim women are oppressed. An Abboud candidacy would verify every Democratic accusation about bigoted Republicans."

https://s1.r29static.com//bin/entry/4a3/340x408/1822616/image.png

https://www.deedra2018.com/

'White ethnostate'

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aZZRZa

Senate predictions.

Senate predictions _if the Democrats block the Trump nominee_

It's more likely for Wisconsin to flip.

Than PA.

I put PA because Bob Casey is supposed to be a "pro-life Democrat".

Nicholson is a good candidiate, too.

Agreed.

@Nuke what do you think of Sinema's chances?

Pielover thinks she will win

because Trump only got +3 in Arizona

I think her chances are overrated.

It's a tossup.

She has a definite edge in that the Republican primary is in August, while she's the presumptive nominee.

I'm just pessimistic about the Southwest as a whole.

Hi just pessimistic about the Southwest as a whole., I'm Dad!

I think Trump will pull us through.

32,201 votes

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/26/us/elections/results-maryland-primary-elections.html

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/8y9bn8

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/a6pdn8

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2Nr9W2

Button's Senate prediction

Hah

I feel bad because I've signed up to canvas and phone bank a couple of times but my social anxiety kicked in and I had to back out. I'm going to sign up to text, and try to work my way up to canvassing. I'd like to help with the subreddit too, if I can.

@Pielover19 what exact link is that from

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueMidterm2018/comments/8x3v2u/texans_we_need_help_in_rbeto_for_senate/

https://www.reddit.com/user/itsme_eloise

"I've been taking Wellbutrin for about a year and a half and it's been amazing for my depression but reacquainting myself with my sex drive has been weird. It's very cyclical for me. When I'm ovulating or on my period, it's overwhelming to the point of being distracting. I feel like I could jump on any man and just go to town. In the weeks between, it's super chill and I could do without, no problem."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

http://www.270towin.com/maps/0Ngmx

http://www.270towin.com/maps/P6VQr

2018 Bernie vs. Cruz

Or 2020

Best case scenario for Bernie.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/yvAQD

http://www.270towin.com/maps/rBAQ8

!play https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onX5xtEwkjE&list=WL&index=117

<:youtube:335112740957978625> **Searching** 🔎 `https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onX5xtEwkjE&list=WL&index=117`

**Playing** 🎶 `Esskeetit, Lil Pump` - Now!

!play https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5IPUV_k-k4

<:youtube:335112740957978625> **Searching** 🔎 `https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5IPUV_k-k4`

**Playing** 🎶 `J-Walking in Death Valley` - Now!

Hypothetical House coattail effect of the SCOTUS Senate victory

@Pielover19 The NPVIC is concerning. It's important that it doesn't pass in PA.

If the NPVIC is passed, we just need to rig the damn polls.

Because you know they already rigged the popular vote when it was symbolic bullshit

!play https://youtu.be/mc8JAlgLClk

<:youtube:335112740957978625> **Searching** 🔎 `https://youtu.be/mc8JAlgLClk`

**Playing** 🎶 `They Don't Have a Clue! 😂` - Now!

@everyone Get in Voice Chat. We'll be discussing the SCOTUS pick and other miscellaneous topics

Has he picked yet

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3232/Who-will-be-Trump's-next-Supreme-Court-nominee

@Deleted User 9pm eastern time

Kkkool

Heck off

odds +125 Brett Kavanaugh
+150 Amy Coney Barrett
+250 Thomas Hardiman
+300 patrick wyrick
+450 britt grant
+550 keith blackwell
+600 Tom Fitton
+900 kevin newsom
+1100 mike lee
+1100 amul thapar
+1250 joan larsen
+1500 Ted Cruz
+2500 Rand Paul
+5000 Judge Judy
+10000 Alex Jones
+12500 Donald Trump Junior
+150000 Donald J. Trump
+500000 Barrack Obama
+1000000 Jeb Bush(edited)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Connecticut,_2016

👏 👏 👏
So excited to see SCOTUS pick
🍿 🍿 🍿

Who do you guys think it's going to be?

I would love to be a fly on the wall with POTUS kitchen cabinet.

@BobbyE Kavanaugh

<EASIEST>

1. John Kerry or any other conventional gimmick-less old white male politiician: John Kerry already has the baggage of losing to Bush in 2004, plus the fact that he'd be 77 years old, plus the fact that he isn't very charismatic, plus the fact that he's a white male (at least Hillary had the woman card), plus the fact that his policies are generic and uninspiring. Trump would get as close as possible to winning all 50 states in this scenario (even ones like New York) - maybe only Vermont, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island would still go blue.

Sadly, I don't think Kerry or any other candidate has a chance of being nominated unless the Democratic leadership tries to rig it again for some reason.

Kerry would just get the "anyone but Trump vote." Many potential anti-Trump voters would just stay home or vote 3rd Party.

2. Hillary Clinton: lost to Trump in 2016, and in 2020 Trump will have won back much of the conservative NeverTrumper vote, which will at the very least net him all of his 2016 states, plus New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada, Maine-At-Large - maybe Colorado, Virginia...in better scenarios, even New Mexico and more.

She would get the "anyone but Trump vote" + "I want a woman vote."

3. Corey Booker / Kirsten Gillibrand / Kamala Harris / conventional politician with a gimmick like being minority or female or both. They're pretty much like Hillary Clinton, except younger and less baggage. They still have the problem of being dependent on corporate money, so the progressive wing of the party would look down on them. Booker is basically a discount Obama, Gillibrand is a discount Hillary (or a slightly better version of Hillary).

^These are the likeliest options right now.

They would get the "anyone but Trump vote" + "I want a woman/minority vote" + a small fraction of moderates/independents. It's likely Trump still wins all his 2016 states, plus New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada.



@Deleted User

4. Bernie Sanders. More difficult than anyone above this list, but still very much beatable because of the fact that he'd be subject to much more scrutiny and criticism this time around, plus the fact that he's be 78/79 in 2020. Realize that there were certain...negative things about him that weren't brought to light in 2016 because his only opponent was Hillary in the Democratic primary, and Hillary didn't want to attack him too hard and risk losing his left-wing supporters in the general election.

Sure, he can win the people who stayed home rather than vote for Hillary, but that can be offset by the people who voted Romney then voted for Hillary who would be more willing to go for Trump than Bernie. It can also be offset by all the people who would be turned off by him being agnostic, by him having his honeymoon in the Soviet Union back in 1988 (millennials don't care so much about his socialist advocacy, but there will still be many older voters in 2020 who would just drop their support once they know of that fact; I also doubt the millionaires and billionaires who were willing to fund Hillary would be willing to fund him), by him not having any job other than being a politician, etc.

Also, it's possible he won't even be alive or in enough of a physically energetic state to run a Presidential campaign, much less be the President.

He would get the "anyone but Trump vote" + some fraction of the "I voted Trump but prefer Bernie" vote plus some fraction of "I stayed home because it wasn't Bernie on the ballot in 2016" vote - MINUS the "I voted Romney but will go for Hillary vote" MINUS the "I'm a moderate/independent who will vote for Trump against a socialist" vote. It's possible Trump still wins all his 2016 states. I don't think Sanders will pick off enough. I think Sanders has even less of a chance in Hillary 2016 states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, than Gillibrand/Booker/Harris because of his non-capitalistic policies. He'd also have much less of a chance in Florida and Ohio.



5. Joe Biden: He can potentially win back the white working class like Bernie, but doesn't have the baggage of being an agnostic socialist who spent his honeymoon in the Soviet Union. However, he does have the baggage of being associated with Obama, which many of the disenfranchised white working class still view in a negative light given how his 2nd term transpired. He also has a bit of a scandal regarding groping children and women.

So, he'd still be pretty easy to beat, unless the economy is in a recession. Like Sanders, he could also be dead of old age or too old to run a viable campaign.

He would get the "anyone but Trump vote" and a better fraction of the "moderate/independent" vote and a fraction of the "I hated Hillary so I stayed home" vote. He could win if conditions in 2020 were severe, but if the economy is good and Trump managed to finish off accomplishments like North Korea, The Wall, etc - Trump still wins all his 2016 states at the very least, plus New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota. Biden would have a better chance than Sanders of keeping states like Virginia and Colorado.

6. Gavin Newsome. All the positives that Biden has, with none of the baggage that Biden or Sanders have. He's also 22 years younger than Trump. Attractive young white male.

Now, he still could be painted as an out of touch Californian elite, but compared to the others, he has a better chance. The only downside among the Democratic base is that he's a white male, but I'm sure he could make overtures by paying lip service to their causes and picking a minority/female VP candidate. However, that could hurt his chances further.

he has a better chance of being nominated than Biden or Sanders because of his age, but he'll have only been governor of California for 1 year by 2020.

I would still bet on Trump even if it was Newsom though, unless things are drastically different in 2020. Newsom would just perform better than all the others.

he would get the "anyone but Trump" vote and a larger portion of "moderates/independents" and a larger portion of "I stayed home in 2016 because of Hillary"


In all of these scenarios, if the conditions in 2020 are good, all groups that the Democrats could win could still be offset by Trump retaining all of his 2016 support, plus the NeverTrump vote, plus a large portion of the Gary Johnson libertarian vote, plus a large portion of moderates/independents who are satisfied that he isn't the doom they were told he was, plus potential right wing Generation Z voters.

<HARDEST>

==============================

John Kerry (former Senator from Massachusetts, former Secretary of State, former Presidential candidate against George W. Bush in 2004)

Hillary Clinton (former first lady, secretary of state, senator from New York)

Corey Booker (Senator from New Jersey), Gillibrand (Senator from New York), Kamala Harris (Senator from California)

🆙 | **Red Storm (in NYC) leveled up!**

Bernie Sanders (Senator from Vermont)

Joe Biden (former Vice President, former Senator from Delaware)

Gavin Newsom (currently running for Governor of California)

What’s the list for ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2020

@Ella I wrote it yesterday for someone else. I copied and pasted it so @nig nog could read it

Gotchaa

🆙 | **BobbyE leveled up!**

@BobbyE damn you went microfiche

I used to have to use microfiche. I'm that old

Come on. That's funny

Information is a click away today.

Yep

Problem is retention of facts.

Say something over and over again...and even if it's not truth, it is.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3232/Who-will-be-Trump's-next-Supreme-Court-nominee

Our brains are the biggest electronic network

While you're waiting
MONSOON
https://youtu.be/9z1mZ7SB1Yg

Hardiman? Is he Kennedy 2.0?

yes

From what I've seen, he's even worse than Kennedy.

(It's called the Cube btw.)

(like the stupid Transformers movie thing)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dhs8sLrU0AAEmIm.jpg

@[Lex]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Hnt6-k9qPE

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2813/Who-will-be-the-next-justice-to-leave-the-Supreme-Court

Ginsburg at 3%

if Ginsburg dies before July 31, that means if you spend $1 on Ginsburg, you win around $33

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Gu

ew

🆙 | **Nuke leveled up!**

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FszugidxkWY

When I see "straight but not narrow" bullshit on Wikipedia

*flak

http://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/178130586

storm incoming

Breaking News

George Wallace appointed to the Supreme Court

>LGBTQs

sounds so akin to bbq

http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1531182864577.png

Hola

https://twitter.com/PPFA/status/1016410448466464774?s=19

https://twitter.com/casslancaster90/status/1016482792547512321

Did you watch this?
https://youtu.be/5w955V6ULd4

https://twitter.com/colbertlateshow/status/1016482132246650880?s=19

POTUS making this decision tonight this late is going to have the media sperge 4am

Are there bets being placed?

Do you think the west coast is going to chimpout?

Oh shit, it’s 9:00

https://youtu.be/FszugidxkWY

Play👆

I don't have tv

ITS HAPPENING!

Play BOT

mango-mussolini!

;;play https://youtu.be/FszugidxkWY

**President Trump Announces the Nominee for Associate Justice of the Supreme Court** will now play.

COME ON KAVANAUGH

Ronald Reagan❤

YES

FUCK YES

YE

come in

What happened?

IT'S HIM

KAVANAUGH

👏 👏 👏

HAIL VICTORY!

HE SAID IT

BUTTON IS CELEBRATING

BRETT KAVANAUGH
>BRETT KAVANAUGH

BRETT KAVANAUGH
>BRETT KAVANAUGH

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3232/Who-will-be-Trump's-next-Supreme-Court-nominee

Hail Victory!

<:drewmiller:423319800215764993> <:drewmiller:423319800215764993> <:drewmiller:423319800215764993> <:drewmiller:423319800215764993>

We did it boys!

Getting on my computer

@R E P T I L E look in <#399762276871307265>

>that faceblocking mic

Blue tie

That's an eff u

What did I miss?

Button is whitepilled.

;;play https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMnXhAFW0vc

**German Medieval Crusader Song - Palästinalied** will now play.

Now the Senate needs to clear all the other nominees

;;skip

Skipped track #1: **German Medieval Crusader Song - Palästinalied**

Looks like we did something good boys

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1016492090707103744?s=19

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-supreme-court-nominee/h_7809827040aaf7369729e1f7b89a988a?utm_term=image&utm_content=2018-07-10T01%3A19%3A33&utm_source=twCNN&utm_medium=social

I liked the RR quote

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1016492968075845632?s=19

The legal system needs an overhaul

As long as the ACLU stands for my 1...take my 19

💋

@Deleted User

That's what I was talking about.

So they were preparing for this.

All users have left the voice channel. The player has been paused.

Link that tweet

@Ghawk get your ass over here nigguh. We're talking about mormonism

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/09/opinion/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-trump.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

https://twitter.com/ColumbiaBugle/status/1016504472246280193

Any one got a quick run down on this guy?

He worked for Bush

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1016491681246515200

Coulter is pretty based.

Pretty sure Button has a crush on her.

https://twitter.com/RealMuckmaker/status/1012523432209104896

https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1016490627742171137

I guess he's a good pick

did you guys see my links to /r/WalkAway

yeah lol

@Walter Johnson you think it's astroturfed?

it's real

I'm one of them

Hi one of them, I'm Dad!