is this one in general?

hello and welcome to data

So based on that, it looks like there might be a blue wave?

yes, but again, it can be minimized

What makes the midterms flip to the opposite party of the President that was elected before it?

midterms are seen as referendums on the ruling party

the opposition party usually has higher turnout because their voters are motivated to stop the ruling party's agenda

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/VA

Virginia election data

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0

D+2.9: R 236; D 199
D+5.9: R 231; D 204
D+7.9: R 225 ; D 210
D+9.9: R 218; D 217
D+12.9: R 196; D 239

I have read that the Libertarians caused the Democrat Pickup in 2016

Which Democrat pickup?

Trump probably would have won in New Hampshire and Nevada were it not for the Libertarians

he also could have won Minnesota

I doubt that

The type of people who voted for gary weren't potential MAGA guys, I can tell you that.

why not ?

Trump has libertarian appeal

Styxhexenhammer666 was originally planning to vote for Johnson but decided to choose Trump

they were more the lulzy "haha fuck trump and clinton" type of libertarians, the people who say and are proud of being third party for the sake of being third party.

@FLanon yeah I'm familiar with those types

I think the vast majority of those people wouldn't have voted otherwise

but I think there are people who voted for Johnson who would have been willing to vote for Trump if the libertarian presence wasn't as strong

Now if Ron Paul or someone of that nature was running on the Libertarian ticket, I'd be humming a different tune. That may have stolen votes.

also, Evan McMullin stole enough votes in Minnesota that you could say it would have gone to Trump otherwise

the Never Trump movement and the mormon cia candidate stole Minnesota

hivemind

by a margin of 10,000 if every McMullin vote went to Trump he would've won MN, but I doubt that 6/7 McMullin voters would've went for Trump

NeverTrumpers, the such

It's been proven at this point that McMullin proved Minnesota to swing to the Democrats, by the good old "Nader stole Florida." metric.

I can't tell if it's for better or for worse that the USA didn't have a Canadian-style Reform Party takeover, on that note.

The Progressive Conservatives in Canada were essentially replaced by their Ross Perot supporting counterparts in Canada, due to the fact that electing the Reform Party of Canada required electing a Reform legislature.

In other words, Ross Perot lost because he could never control Congress. Reform Canada won because precisely the opposite was true--Commons elects the Prime Minister.

But if Ross Perot became President in 1992 or 1996, would we have a Justin Trudeau like monster today?

The Canadian Tories, formed by the merger of the Reform/CA party with the Prog. Cons., have been failing to outlaw abortion and gay marriage pretty much continuously for decades.

And they can actually just suspend human rights and ban those things in Canada, as their Supreme Court is weak.

And they didn't even disclose Canadian immigration stats until they were leaked by dissidents under Trudeau

So no one even knew it was an issue.

And on top of that, they ratified NAFTA--the treaty they were founded to oppose--and joined the WTO.

That said, they didn't even get into office until Stephen Harper. So they basically had to repeal all of that.

This is interesting Nuke. I had read Alberta is very Conservative. How do they feel about being in such a Liberal mess? Is there any talk of session?

Alberta is already under a left-wing Socialist government because the right-wing parties were too busy infighting with their 60+% majority

It's actually a big part of why Trudeau was elected: Conservatives were extremely demoralized by being defeated by a landslide in Alberta.

The right-wing party was able to defeat the moderate "Progressive Conservatives," but the right lost over 20 points overall from all of the infighting, leaving them with a feeble simple majority between both parties--and because Canada's electoral system is a two-party-optimized FPTP system like the USA has...that meant the most united party, the New Democrats, won.

The New Democrats won 40% of the Alberta vote too, which gave them a huge amount of momentum until the CBC--Canada's equivalent of PBS or the BBC--actually began encouraging NDP voters to vote Liberal to stop the Tories from being reelected.

if only Canada had a two-party system

I wish the US actually got involved in foreign internal affairs so we could condemn the CBC for that, or do many things really.

And yeah, Alberta's feuding right-wing parties actually merged in 2017 to prevent another election like that.

Alberta 2019 could be a majority vote for the United Conservatives, which might be the first in recent Canadian history.

Ah, nope, Manitoba has a right-wing majority government as it is.

And so does Saskatchewan.

Alright, I think the best say to determine which party's gonna win which state, we'll have to look at Voter proportions

Number of Self Described & Registered Indepnendents, Democrats, Republicans, etc.

So we can determine which states we can win

where can we find that data

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html

here, I guess

I don't think we've gone in depth of party financials yet

http://theweek.com/speedreads/752743/dnc-reportedly-dead-broke-rnc-nearly-40-million

DNC has 6.5 million dollars on hand and are 6.1 million dollars in debt

400k away from insolvency

The RNC has 38 million dollars without a single cent of debt

there could be something to this

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/some-democrats-arent-buying-the-dncs-new-50-state-strategy/article/2647896

In a state this purple with the national consensus (even if it is shrinking) still leaning towards the Dems, I think this is a great sign of things to come.

What state are you referring to?

FL

Oh. I thought Florida had been slowly trending Red

it's referring to the senate election we have which most likely will be current Governor Rick Scott and Senator Bill Nelson

It did in 2016, but that's tricky

Florida is the swingiest swing state ever

But I thought in general the trend at the state and other Federal Government level was towards Republican there. It's a very slow but steady trend because Florida is so divided

FL's R at the state legislature level (so far) but extremely swing in Federal politics

Like it will be a Swing State for a long long time but we aren't losing ground there

Blue counties are getting bluer (Miami)

Red counties are getting redder (Pensacola)

it's extremely hard to tell what Florida will do long term

That is happening every where I tjink

People are self spring

we've got to make the best of it, definitely

I made a list displaying the percentage change needed to take each state from democrats(2016 election)

.37 New Hampshire
1.5 Minnesota
2.42 Nevada
2.96 Main
4.9 Colorado
5.32 Virginia
8.22 New Mexico
10.98 Oregon
11.37 Delaware
13.7 Connecticut
14.1 New Jersey
15.51 Rhode Island
16.2 Washington
17.07 Illinois
22.49 New York
25.45 Vermont
26.42 Maryland
27.2 Massachusetts
30.11 California
32.19 Hawaii
86.4 Washington D.C.

Let us not flee from leftist degeneracy to red territory, but make uncertain territory our home. So that growing cities do not make the mistakes we see so often in history.

Man If we would have been able to hold Virginia we would have an Electoral College Lock with the Rust Belt now Purple

Commiefornia splitting into 2 or 3 states would be golden. Jefferson and East CA would not go blue.

@Sacramento another way of looking at this data is to subtract the 2.1% that Cunt Face won the Popular Vote by.

So like Nevada votes .32% More Democrat then the rest of the country. And New Hampshire votes about 1.7% more Republican then the rest of the country etc..

I feel bad for the Republicans living in California. There state is turning into the third world and there is literally nothing they can do.

If Trump gets 50% of the Popular Vote in 2020 New Hampshire and Minnesota will flip. And Maine and Nevada will be extremely close.

http://news.gallup.com/poll/214091/trump-disapproval-rooted-character-concerns.aspx

lol, one of the biggest reasons I support Trump is his personality

this Jewish chick told me she likes his policies, but not his speaking style / vulgarity

I think that the problem for a lot of people is his rhetoric. People like his policies

^

@Walter Johnson Pat Buchanan and George Wallace are against wealth redistribution; GWB supports it.

Also yeah

The reason he won the primary was definitely his personality and rhetoric; Ted Cruz basically copy and pasted his most popular proposals into his platform before the Iowa caucus.

So if you wanted Trump policies, you basically could've voted for Cruz. In fact, he was probably more right-wing/Capitalist in many ways.

However it is precisely because he was more far-right than Trump on economic issues that he was ironically not as electable as Trump.

I highly recommend everyone here read Trende's book "The Lost Majority".

https://www.amazon.com/Lost-Majority-Future-Government-Grabs/dp/0230116469

@Den interesting, what did you take away from it

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 holy fuck

I don't think though that Whites would vote this Republican if the country wasn't so diverse.

I mean with the exception of California the more diverse states tend to be where Whites vote the most overwhelmingly Republican

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 saved

What are going to be the effect of having most of the Republicans funded by the RNC and the Democrats funded individually?

@Den I'm not sure. I think the Democrats will still get enough funding on an individual basis from Soros and the like

maybe not though

if they don't get enough funding, the Republicans will have a HUGE advantage

@Red Storm (in NYC) What I mean is Republicans are donating to the RNC and Democrats are donating directly to Candidates. I wonder what the effects will be? I assume a lot of duplicate effort for the Dems. And a lot of money going to candidates that will either easily win or have no chance

the RNC will be able to distribute the funds to the candidates who need it the most,

whereas Dem candidates' oppurtunities will be isolated to their own donations, assuming they are at the recieving end

A lot of money to will be spent during primaries against other Dems trying to get the nominee to take on the Republican in the general

@Den Yeah, apparently there are so many Democrats running this year that many of them damage their party's chances by attacking each other in the primaries

leeeet's not jump to conclusions...

many won't win the primaries

yeah, but the primary survivors can be damaged by their opponents attacks against them

I think the damage will occur if they push the other candidate too far left to pick up Normies during the General. I think Democrats will vote for against the Great Satan (Republicans) no matter what. It will also force them to burn through money

Dems burn through money I mean

Democrats will generally vote for the D candidate no matter what, even if they are too progressive or too moderate, in order to spite Drumpf

however, independents are another story

The last couple polls on the generic ballot bode very well, you have R+1 w/ the morning consult poll (up 5 pts from their previous poll) and D+4 on the latest YouGov poll (up 2 pts from their previous poll)

Which yougov poll?

latest one

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

My one qualm with your recommendations, @🎃Boo-ton🎃

Is that consumer confidence etc. are amazing right now.

If there's any economic issue, it's the stock market, but that's only because of the correction.

It's really the fault of Congress.

As the stock market skyrocketed expecting great 2017 legislation, repealing Obamacare etc.

But the Republicans did not pass such legislation.

Does anyone have the Cook Party Senate ratings for 2016?

@Den I think those can be looked up on Ballotpedia

This is the closest thing I could find
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

They rated the Wisconsin race as "slightly D" when the R won

They rated Ohio a toss-up when Portman won by 20 points

Wow

new data: where Trump's base is concentrated by state

@Red Storm (in NYC)
battleground states where Trump's base (WWC) is most prominent (percent of population):
1.) West Virginia (65.8%)
2.) Montana (58.0%)
3.) North Dakota (57.2%)
4.) Missouri (53.5%)
5.) Ohio (52.2%)

Ohio is based

Ohio is the largest of al those

Trump's base

Are those pluses and minuses in comparison to Romney in 2012

it's the margin of how Trump performed among these groups in 2016

the percentage represents the total amount of these groups among voters, right?

so whites are 71% of voters, then?

correct

if whites continue to have this high of turnout, then that has to count for something, right?

if Whites turnout like they did in 2016, we could win every election for at least a decade

well, we've got to make that happen, then

whites have always turned out more in the midterms than minorities

are there any stats for that, that could be interesting.

say no more, fam

compared w/ the presidential elections though

Well, that doesn't seem to be a good way of telling, white turnout among their own demographic is one thing, having data for whites among all voters, and their results in both the midterms and presidential would be what I'm looking for

in any case, this is interesting stuff, whites will always be the major demographic group in these elections

if we can get enough of the minority vote, maybe we'll be fine

oh you mean data that shows what percentage white voters composed of the electorate during midterms?

we'll never win the minority vote, but having 30-40% would be great

yeah that's what I meant

ok

while i look, here's one for racial composition by state during 2016,

>FL: Hispanics 15% of electorate

Damn

That's close to the black's percentages

found it,

apparently,

during 2014, Whites made up 75% of the electorate nationwide

And in 2012 and 2010?

Notice how _Asians_ vote +1 for the GOP that year

that gives context for a trend

Well, shit

A minority group voted for Rs at some point?

That speaks for potential

Asians used to be a reliable GOP base,