My mic isn't working.

I was the guy who was leaving and joining to make it work.

brb

gonna get cider

YIKES!

@everyone

DEMOCRATS AT BACK AT +10.3 ON THE 538 GENERIC BALLOT

THAT'S THE BREAKING POINT

hmm

it'll go down

>Trusting polls

@here

Adam Woffin?

@Pielover19 Atomwaffen Division

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDDN0HxFMFE

http://0382c64.netsolstores.com/hellfiregen2snapon.aspx

big if true

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 so if that's true, it would mean 100,000 less votes to the Democrats in PA?

i think so

https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/162038052 bamp

@TrippyTurtle There's plenty of stuff that's been traditionally viewed as "AltRight" like Monarchism that has nothing to do with race.

okay, so,

who's here

ayo whiteboi, lissenup

here's a general rule when it comes to polls that include whites or white ____

if the poll shows whites to be a certain % of the sample size,

it can be safe to add +10%

every non-averaged poll can be safely skewed to the MOE of 3% because of this

maybe even an additional 3%

Yep, and I'm sure many of us here will be Red Storming in 2020 as well

and will learn from the right things we did in 2018 and the wrong things we did

@everyone some of you plan to run for office one day, so participating in this group will give you quite a few insights for your future endeavors

complex us demographic groups:

White Christian (43%)
White Working-class (33%)
White Protestant (30%)
White Christian, 65+ (28%)
White Christian, 50-64 (23%)
White Working-class Christian (23%)
White College-educated (21%)
White Evangelical Protestant (17%)
White Christian, 30-49 (16%)
White Evangelical Protestant Homeowner (13%)
White Mainline Protestant (13%)
White Catholic (11%)
White Christian, 18-29 (11%)
White Evangelical Protestant Married (11%)
White Evangelical Protestant Female (10%)
White Evangelical Protestant Working-class (10%)
White Mainline Protestant Homeowner (10%)
White Catholic Homeowner (9%)
White Working-Class Midwesterner (9%)
White Evangelical Protestant HS or less (8%)
White Evangelical Protestant Male (8%)
White Evangelical Protestant Southerner (8%)
White Mainline Protestant Married (8%)
White Catholic Married (7%)
White Mainline Protestant Female (7%)
White Mainline Protestant (7%)
White Catholic Women (6%)
White Catholic Working-Class (6%)
White Mainline Protestant Male (6%)
White Catholic Men (5%)
White Evangelical Protestant, 65+ (5%)
White Evangelical Protestant, 50-64 (5%)
White Evangelical Protestant, 30-49 (5%)
White Evangelical Protestant Parent (5%)
White Evangelical Protestant, Some college (5%)
White Catholic, 50-64 (4%)
White Evangelical Protestant Parent, 3 children at least (4%)
White Mainline Protestant, 30-49 (4%)
White Mainline Protestant, 50-64 (4%)
White Mainline Protestant, 65+ (4%)
White Mainline Protestant Parent (4%)
White Catholic, 30-49 (3%)
White Catholic, 65+ (3%)
White Catholic Parent (3%)
White Mainline Protestant Parent, 3 children at least (3%)
White Catholic Parent, 3 children at least (2%)
White Evangelical Protestant, College graduate (2%)
White Evangelical Protestant, 18-29 (2%)
White Evangelical Protestant, Post-graduate (2%)
White Mainline Protestant, 18-29 (2%)
White Catholic, 18-29 (1%)

^will be adding more later

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/27/how-republicans-can-win-the-2018-midterms-217088

''There are a record number of GOP retirements—42, so far—including many in the kinds of suburban districts that will be hardest for the party to hold''

as I have stated before, the suburbs are what matters

AHHHHHHH

PA-18 IS NOW A TOSSUP

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Wtf, what's happening?

@everyone 🚨 SPECIAL ELECTION ALERT 🚨

Isnt there voting today

>Connecticut House of Rep. District 120 - vote Bill Cabral

>Kentucky House of Rep. District 89 - vote Robert Goforth

Arizona, New Hampshire Kentucky and Connecticut

>New Hampshire House of Rep. District Belknap County No. 3 - vote Les Cartier

>Arizona GOP Senate primary vote Martha McSally

Is there a timeline for all these special elections?

good news

(I don't particularly care for the wall though)

i want it to be like the one from pacific rim

tall thick and heavily armed

back when Pacific Rim came out I thought it was some Filipino porno

no doubts about trump winning in 2020 if he runs

if he ran in 2012 he would'e probably won too

i'm worried about the demographics

in 2020

looking at the dem's current plan for "winning" 2020

which is just to run a shit ton of random people and hope one wins

that's

that's sort of a simplistic way of looking at it

there is a huge contingency of Americans who will vote for a certain party no matter what

but you gotta remember that almost two thirds of the nation didn't vote at all in 2016

probably because they didn't like hillary but weren't sure about voting for trump

because supporting trump in 2016 put a lot of shit on your back

one third

sorry

anyways people are seeing the true colors of each party at this point

with the dems sitting on their hands like they mixed hemorrhoid medication with their denture fluid

@coastner

Trump will have been normalized by 2020

so millions of people who were unwilling to vote for him because of the pressure will feel free to vote for him then

remember something,

and millions of people who thought he'd nuke the world will be willing to vote for him then

there were millions of Democrats who did not show up to vote for Hillary

10,000,000 Democrats who voted for Obama in 2008 did not show up to vote for Hillary

yeah because a lot of them voted for Drumpf

not everywhere

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 are these charts and data going into the drop box?

@Deleted User Now they are

BREAKING

THE (R) HAS WON THE KENTUCKY SPECIAL ELECTION, SEAT HELD

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

THE (D) FLIPPED THE SEAT IN NH!!!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

sounds like the same shit as before

@Deleted User **AAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH**

@Deleted User DELET THIS SERVER! ITS OVER! BLUE TSUNAMI 2018! SAY IT WITH ME: MADAME SPEAKER! **JUST!**

the NH seat, how red was it?

**AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH**

that red, huh

DEMOCRATS FLIPPED THE CONNECTICUT SEAT

**NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO**

TWO SEATS LOST IN ONE NIGHT

margins, what are the margin differences?

150 points?

19%+ shift to Democrats in NH

what now?

1%+ shift to Republicans in Connecticut

wait, you went full pink wojak just now when we have an R shift tonight?

I thought you said they flipped that seat

IT STILL FLIPPED

how is that even possible?

third parties?

2016: 49% D, 47%

dude

that's not a flip

that's a dem seat

Today: 51% D, 49%

no, no,

that was how Clinton and Trump performed in the district

it was held by a Republican

what were the circumstances behind him getting out?

old age, scandal, what?

old age

EVERY (R) ON THE BALLOT IS TRUMP ON THE BALLOT

you've got to understand, without an incumbency bump, this was likely to go D anyways.

"EVERY (R) ON THE BALLOT IS TRUMP ON THE BALLOT"

lol that's the opposite of how it works

let's take the Kentucky seat from a few days ago

Dan Johnson only won because of the bump he got from Trump

it was a very slight margin in 2016

the seat was typically Dem

you're not seeing a shift to blue when it comes to the populace

it's such a ridiculous thing to freak out about, when the seat went further R than Clinton v Trump

you're seeing

1. Lack of Trump being on the ballot

2. Lack of motivation in general rom GOP voters

without contact to a network of boomers nationwide, we can't do too much about this

what the fuck is the point of moping about this anyways?

a 1% shift is like nothing

it's nothing much, but it's not a bad thing, and it's certainly nothing to go full apocalypse over

@FLanon maybe it's a California thing

SWALLOW THE BLACKPILL, WHITEBOI

okay, now, what was the swing in Kentucky, exactly?

today?

yes

28% swing in favor of Democrats

that's more of a worry than a swing in favor of Rs

T
U
R
N
O
U
T

that's the name of the game

the issue is that blue reddit has this network of dedicated voters in these special elections, but we don't have a mass contact with red reddit

if that can be managed, then we can actually make change with these special elections and you can soapbox however you want.

@FLanon another issue is that red reddit is persecuted by the admins

anyway, I wonder if the support for abortion after 5 weeks thing will hurt Lamb in this district

>you're against putting murderers to death therefore you're a hypocrite for not wanting to murder what you see as infants

red reddit is quarantined in t_d, I doubt we'll get good support in r/politics or something like that

anything else, like alt right subreddits and all that usually end up getting shut down which is unfortunate

Its not a leftwing circlejerk like the rest of the politics subs

I doubt there'd be that high of a concentration of dedicated R voters to be effective enough for improving turnout in a significant way.

I'm not a fan of the county-level election map that simply shows red and blue

it's more useful to look at maps that display vote density or size of lead through precinct-level

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/115-2018/h91?utm_campaign=govtrack_feed&utm_source=govtrack/feed&utm_medium=rss

AAAAAAAAHHHH

It passed

Well, in that case it's a good idea to call your senator to make sure it doesn't get passed. Hopefully they'll be too preoccupied with other legislation to actually pass it. Still, call.

https://sofrep.com/100245/165-house-dems-propose-new-assault-weapon-ban-that-would-extend-to-pistols-and-shotguns/

Make sure your Republican rep knows to vote against this

>bill passes house

>pink wojak

>Ds flip two seats in one day

>this is fine

Did it pass house

not yet

niggy

there are more reps

than dems

right now

why Trump will win 2020: Incumbency advantage, incoherence of the opposition party and a general approval of his policies

**AAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHH**

GOP **UP** ON THE GENERIC BALLOT

TRUMP APPROVAL UP, UP, UP

ARE WE WINNING @🎃Boo-ton🎃

I THINK SO

FUCK YEAH

YouGov has Dems at only +2 on the generic poll,

Trump approval at 44%

Ramussen has him higher than Obama at this point

Rasmussen is Republican-leaning

YouGov has a Democrat-leaning too,

so it's likely actually between 44 and 50

46-47 most likely

>be me

>my Rep is the Whip

>will just vote for anything the Party wants, but does fairly well with flood insurance

kek

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Sauce?

YouGov

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueMidterm2018/comments/7om9hq/lets_talk_about_connor_lamb/

"Let's talk about Conor Lamb

Not so much the candidate (he’s a fine candidate and legit hot) but more so what can we do to help him? How do the people of PA-18 GOTV and yet not turn this into another ossoff fuck up? Any place we can do postcards for voters for these guys? I feel this could be our first house flip under trump and we need to hone our eyes and ears and mouth and noses on this race. So what do?"

"We fired up the other side way too much though in Georgia’s 6th. Way too much money dumped in and way too many out of staters got involved in the process.

You’ve gotta find the right balance between firing your own base up while not making the other side too interested in the election."

"I'm an organizer in PA-18, have met Conor Lamb several times, and am working with his campaign.

They are not yet sure about postcards to voters- I suggested it to his social media director, but they are on the fence.

There was a phone bank this weekend that had so many volunteers, the campaign could not generate enough lists and we had to close the RSVPs.

Lamb is campaigning everywhere. He opened his first two offices in the reddest counties in the district.

For now, my best advice for long-distance help is to donate. they're still trying to staff the campaign, and money helps.

We'll need door knockers on the ground as things get closer, and anyone who wants to come in for that can probably be put to work."

I wonder what these people phonebanking actually do

are they calling up houses of random voters? Because that could backfire

if they have numbers of potential Democrat voters who have willingly gave their number away, I suppose that could help

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/democrats-vs-trump/democratic-national-committee-war-plan-target-50-million-voters-n851786

I just read the article. I noticed something in it. The RNC has been doing what the DNC is planning on doing since 2012. On top of that The RNC has what 50 times the funds of the DNC? Yet in all of 2017 they were only to contact 11 million voters. But the DNC CLAIMS it will target 50 million by November (Its already March) and they are flat broke and are new to this. I call Bullshit

I killed /SG/

@Rhodesiaboo no point warring against /sg/

I mean, Assad is still someone we need to support, even if you also are a Trump fan

yeah

and even if a lot of them are butthurt about Trump

there's no point antagonizing them further

they need to come back into the fold

/sg/ goes a little too far with the cult of personality stuff, but we still have some common ground at least

recognize that Hillary and all the other GOP candidates aside from Rand would have been WORSE for Syria

/sg/ just became extremely skeptical that Trump will actually deliver on foreign policy in 2017.

And for good reason

listen up

immigration is all the matters

That's not really within the scope of /sg/ but they also hated on how he didn't get the ban on Syrian refugees implemented and BTFO the courts fast enough.

wut

you can't rush the court process

The fact is, letting courts trample your immigration policy and govern it for him caused much of /sg/ to basically believe that Trump isn't even the President, and the Deep State is totally in control.

For the most part they don't even care about Trump, as long as he isn't doing something to fuck over Syria/Ukraine/Yemen that day.

@Den looking forward to hearing about your reports on PA-18 tomorrow, keep us posted

I wonder how many people who otherwise wouldn't vote in the midterms, will make themselves vote because of the gun control outrage

I think Trump is playing the base to make them stop being apathetic

remember guys, the opposite of love isn't hate. It's indifference, and people who are indifferent get nothing done

People who are riled up because of anger at Trump for possible "betrayal" will have more motivation to actually vote

I was just looking at the Generic Ballet. It's 8.2 in favor of Dems but it's skewed by 2 outlier Polls that have them up 15 and 16 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Nooooooo

FUCKING DAHNALD, YOU DONT APPEASE LIBERALS

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/us/politics/trump-gun-control.html

LOOK AT FEINSTEIN

SHEKELED

"Oy Vey! Good Tangerine Goy!"

Evil (((Woman))) indeed

if Trump passes _anything_ gun control related,

he _will_ lose the House,

and he _will_ be impeached by Democrats

RADICAL RANDY DO YOUR THING

THE BILL PASSED THE HOUSE

TRUMP IS GONNA SIGN IT

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

LINK

**LINK**