this guy ran as a libertarian-ish Republican and lost 40% to Jerry Brown's 60%

he was pro amnesty along with other social issues

I see why the Californians here are the way they are

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Look at this fucking moron...

"Saccone could've won if not for voter fraud"

*sniffles*

I smell damage control

@Deleted User face it

Tonight was a shellacking

such utter incompetence

either that or delusion

Oh but wait Button

The reuters poll said we got this righ!

haha red storm totally happeneing - RS

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Oh button I forgot/

we can't mention our loses

because FLanon will spin that with gymnastics as unproductive

(i"m being sarcastic guys don't freak out)

>implying voter fraud isn't a thing

@zakattack04

>tonight was a shellacking

at this point I'm starting to think you're just blackpilling for the sake of it, though maybe I should have realized that sooner. GOP has higher numbers compared to 2014. Democrats actually have LOWER numbers compared to 2014 in Arkansas. What do you have to say about that ? Nothing, of course, because you ignore everything that runs contrary to your blackpill narrative

>spin that with gymnastics as unproductive

No, @FLanon says it's unproductive because....it is. Do you really not realize that constantly posting about how we're doomed because of >muh trends is counterproductive because the very aim of this Discord is for trying to win, no matter what

>(i"m being sarcastic guys don't freak out)

you're a useless Calinigger

Ouch man ok...

I thought you'd just have a good laugh because I even stated it was sarcasm

I'm sorry to soil your night.

@Deleted User New England Cuckold

x)

No need to take life so seriously all the time man...

Or even that, people.

Especially when they literally say "I'm being sarcastic" xD

But hey, maybe it's just a New Yorker thing

Being crammed in that huge city, surrounded by white socialist democrats has taken its toll on you bud x3

New York is mid-atlantic, not New England

also I like New York, and I don't take you seriously at all, that's the thing

I do feel it's necessary to correct you in front of the others in this Discord though

lol

says NY is NE

not nearly as cucked

it feels that way sometimes but no

i mean its still far from the real 'murica

but its not a lost cause. Mass is.

So gimmie a quick rundown on the good and the bad last night please

How was turnout in white areas, high or low?

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 what does +3.9 D on 538 mean, is it good or bad

yeah I'm also gonna need a rundown

+3.9 D on 538 is good

Anyways, just woke up, what's the good news and the bad news from last night exactly?

In Georgia, looks like we've got a higher number in the governor's race, and that means something because Georgia has open primaries, anyone can vote for anyone.

Looks like some fantastic news in Arkansas from what I've heard from RS.

On the poll BM posted with the dem higher up, which firm did that even come from? We are literally 9 hours away from the time we got the result, if it was actually taken a few hours after the results, then wouldn't that be at what, 2 in the fucking morning? If we can't control for other factors, then this of course is terrible news, but I'm not exactly sure if it's sound.

How did that guy do with the Deportation Bus?

5th place I think

Turnout was a little low in KY

Last I checked it was 100K Dem and 48K Republican

That's because of KY's one of those states that votes heavily R in generals but has dems registered

I mean

True but

Not even 50K

But didn't the Berniecrat win?

KY-06 is in an area on the map that's deep blue

Closed primaries, so if you're registered with a party, you have to vote with it in the primaries

I didn't know it was that blue

Trump won KY-06 right?

Yes

In 2012, there were 24,000 people who voted in the Republican primary.

Nice

So in order to win Georgia, we need high White Turnout

Unopposed in 2014

This is Alabama 2.0

We also need to keep as many whites from voting dem as possible

We need to make more propaganda

Targeting White Christains and just Whites in General

One thing about Georgia

Cagle hasn't won yet

He has to advance to a runoff election with Brian Kemp, so that's one thing to consider.

Anyways, getting back to KY-06

I am just reading about that

Who do we want to win the runoff

I want Kemp

We can't let that monkey win the governship

https://youtu.be/5Q1cfjh6VfE

Anyways, on turnout in KY-06 for Democrats, 75k voted for dems in 2014, in 2018 they had 100k votes.

Yep

So, that means that from 2012 to 2018, the R primary vote doubled, whild the D primary vote went up 33% from 2014 to 2018.

This is good

So looking at Georgia 2016 Election Results, it looks like the top and bottom parts of the state are the Republican Strongholds

"I got a big truck... just in case I need to round up criminal illegals and take em home myself"
This line alone is why I endorsed him.

Nice

I feel like if this monkey runs like Clinton with the black shit, I feel like Whites will get angry and turn out

We'll have to see, really.

Yep

Is the runoff soon?

I'm not sure what a black woman do to turnout with black males.

Yeah

I think this election probably could be used as a barometer for looking at what maybe 2020 could be like if they run a black woman, because that's pretty rare in these elections.

Yeah

Also why the hell is the Republican Runoff in July

Just how it happens

Man

Sheittttt

@🎃Boo-ton🎃

I would like a source for that poll.

How’d it go last night?

Pretty good.

That’s good to hear, what are the specifics.

Oh great Stacey Abrams won in Georgia

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 Where did your poll for KY-06 come from?

He probably pulled that out of his ass.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7b/2022_US_Senate_map.png

Whomst here believes we can get more seats in 2022?

Nope.

I spy New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada.

Illinois will be hard though.

But North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia.

>Arizona and Georgia

I wouldn't worry about these.

Same with WI and PA really

And NC

That's actually delusional.

2022 is a 6th year midterm.

WI and PA would need to be defended, but Georgia and North Carolina are Southern.

So what?

They're still purple.

Changing demographics and all.

Georgia isn't.

Yeah, but it's still competitive in a year that will probably be great for Dems.

Do you really think they wouldn't focus harder on Marco Rubio?

Toomey and Johnson won't win reelection without Trump on the ballot

They're going to focus those

Relative to Georgia and NC that is

And yeah that's what I was thinking

Johnson and Toomey are the main at-risk seats in 2022.

Johnson is retiring.

RIP

That's a democratic pickup

Oh, he's actually staying true to his term limits pledge.

We need to start carrying PA

That's exactly the demographic we need and if we lose them fug man

Agreed.

PA is absolutely crucial.

2022 looks like a horrible year for us

Also

The poll was from the DCCC

Fake news.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/999158726308265984

<:wojaktrump:422438927631384577>

Expected blackpill. 2014 was excellent for Republicans, and 2018 isn't that hot for us.

@Pielover19 It's over...

That could change when November comes

No one doesn’t know what’s going to happen between now and November

So the NFL is fining players for kneeling during the anthem now

🆙 | **GermanEastAfrica leveled up!**

Some cringe for you

West Virginia Senate GE: Manchin (D) 47% (+7) Morrisey (R) 40% Hollen (L) 4%

For Georgia in 2014, the dem was unopposed which might have something to do with it, not as much of a reason to go out to the polls. Still a bad thing though, I'd have to agree.

also, looks like nuke has a new pfp huh

I think 2022 is too far out to make any determinate calls, depending on how 2018 and 2020 go, there could be a number of ways it could turn out. If the environment is good with a productive congress and we've built up a very sturdy majority in the Senate, it will be manageable. It is a pretty bad map for us generally though, and probably devastating if we had that map this year.

@🎃Boo-ton🎃 7 points lol

we gotta take em as they come

@Nuke

@FLanon still not sure where BM got that poll that showed McGrath 15 points ahead of Barr

yeah I found it

it was before, not after the primary yesterday

anyway, @Nuke

it was commissioned by the DCCC, so, grain of salt there

500 people asked by landline

about 2022

if Chuck Schumer retires and is replaced by a Roy Moore tier Dem, I can see us taking a seat in New York with a Scott Brown tier R in 2022

same with California and Illinois and Vermont and Connecticut and Maryland

Nevada and New Hampshire and Colorado should be competitive even without a Roy Moore tier Dem

@Pielover19 assuming Trump is POTUS in 2022, it'll be similar to 2018, which means that the environment favors the D's. However, like 2018, that doesn't guarantee a D victory in the same way that a D victory wasn't guaranteed in 2022

*in the same way a D victory wasn't guaranteed in 2002

I might not be so sure it's similar to 2018 depending on some circumstances

>BM literally spending most of xir energy, time, and focus on posting Democrat propaganda

@FLanon something tells me that Trump in his 2nd term would not compromise as much as in his 1st term

If we were to get a mandate congressionally this year followed by a victory in 2020, 2022's environment may be more favorable to Rs, however considering the map, it'll take a lot to get a net gain in the senate.

in the same way that Obama in his 2nd term was less conciliatory in comparison to his first term

also...2022 will be around the time people my age could be winning House seats, come to think of it

the minimum age for the House is 25, but the youngest one right now is Elise Stefanik at 33 (actually, I think Conor Lamb might be a few months younger)

I recall in 2008 a Republican named Aaron Schock won at age 27

Mine would have to be like 2024 or 2026 I think

at the earliest because I do have to start early in this day and age unlike certain people

I think the requirement for state legislature isn't as high

btw, I highly recommend volunteering with the Republican Party in your area this year though

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/2020_Senate_election_map.png

also, speaking of 2022, let's talk about 2020

if the environment is favorable to a Trump re-election....

Ousting Doug Jones in Alabama seems effortless

taking that D seat in New Hampshire is not as easy, but definitely doable. Same thing with the seat in Michigan.

Minnesota should be about as hard as Michigan. Virginia could be around the same level.

in the same way that Democrats in 2012 generally benefited from having Obama at the top of the ballot, Republicans in 2020 will benefit from having Trump at the top of the ballot

if it's a Trump landslide year, I could see the R's taking those other solidly blue states as well, with Scott Brown tier candidates

We'll have to see how far it travels

how far what travels ?

Trump, depending on his performance, he could pave the way for Minnesota, Virginia, Oregon maybe.

It'll depend on 2018 to a large extent, productivity in Congress leading to Trump getting his promises passed would almost certainly secure reelection.

Obama and Trump are similar in many ways, like the fact that their base got pretty frustrated in their first year and a half, but one big difference between Obama and Trump is

Obama won in 2008 at a pretty high level of popularity, but there was nowhere to go but down, so it makes sense that he won by less in 2012

Trump won in 2016 in a very polarizing way, and his popularity was arguably low at the time, but that means there's nowhere to go but up

a huge reason why I'm so optimistic is the "normalization" phenomenon. You know how in the first days of the Trump admin, you had all these leftists screeching about refusing to 'normalize' Trump and how "this is NOT normal. I am literally shaking" ? Well, there's a good reason for them to be scared about that. The reason is because the millions of voters who sat home or voted Hillary or third party could easily view Trump as better than expected, which means that it's not so hard for Trump to win in 2020 at even greater margins

Guys, do you think it’s possible to repeal the 15th amendment?

it's technically possible in the same way that it's technically possible to repeal every other amendment

but the only scenario I see that happening in is if racial relations get to borderline civil war tier

and in that circumstance, we'll see actual civil war before a repeal of the 15th

14th is worse

Repealing the 15th is probably as hard as repealing the 13th.

You'll probably have a better time repealing the 26th or something.

And as FLanon said, the 14th is the worst.

It fucks up the entire country by not only adding an enumerated power for civil rights and giving the Congress the authority to combine it with its commerce authority and other such BS via the Necessary and Proper Clause, but the Supreme Court has fucked it up by making it effectively bind the federal and state levels of government to the same restrictions on power.

Just because the Second Amendment guarantees a federal right to own and use nukes and battleships doesn't mean that it was intended to preserve those rights for states--in one amazingly telling example.

But the theory of Trump being normalized could work out, he's definitely going to need to make some more presidential moves, not as much cucking as just doing stuff a president would do, just overall being more likable. Lot of ways to do it, he could get a dog, go to the world series, but it doesn't really cost him anything politically.

Another example is that states were originally allowed to establish and restrict religion.

And now that they've even made it so that liberal states can pass "rights" and the federal government can be forced to enforce them nationwide, the Fourteenth Amendment is operating in a means far from that which was originally intended.

One of the most hilarious examples of Fourteenth Amendment overreach was that SCOTUS held that the Fourth Amendment created a "right to privacy" which guaranteed married people the right to contraception, then ruled that because unmarried people were not receiving equal protection, the Fourteenth Amendment also applied to unmarried pepole.

NEW: Rep. Tom GARRETT -- a GOP freshman from Virginia -- is considering not seeking reelection and has abruptly parted ways with his chief of staff

Hopefully this results in Virgil Goode taking his seat back

<:wojaktrump:422438927631384577>

Pie

Yes?

Pls whitepill

"Considering"

Also, did Gillespie lose this district in 2017?

If he didn't, that's a good sign.

Let me check

Yikes

This is R+6 district

Oof.

But if Gillespie won it, I would say it would stay with the Republicans.

Guess what city this district compromises of

Charlottesville

AAAAAAAAA

Well, let's start freaking out if he actually retires.

These representatives are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Yeah, if Barrett retires, you should adjust the Crystal ball

Definitely.

https://grrrgraphics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/stuck_in_the_middle_east.jpg

Zyklon Ben at it Again

Alright, things look good.

Gillespie won by a decent margin, so if that guy retires I'll either put it at lean or likely Republican.

I thought he lost

He did lose

In that district, though.

I'm worried VA-02 could be competitive as well

Hi worried VA-02 could be competitive as well, I'm Dad!

This is the Hampton Roads part of the state,

barely went for Trump in 2016 and has been moving more blue ever since

@Pielover19 whew

So Rep. Tom Garrett says he's not resigning and will be putting out a statement soon.

"I'm not resigning. I can tell you that definitively."

**AAHHHH**

Alright, @🎃Boo-ton🎃 has been warned because '**Mass mention**'.

what

@Deleted User @Pielover19 @FLanon

Wisconsin Governor GE:
Tony Evers (D) 49% (+4)
Scott Walker (R-inc) 45%

ok

Blue Wisconsin... <:wojaktrump:422438927631384577>